Final Oscar Predictions

It’s been an exciting awards season. I managed to see all of the major films I wanted to by the time that Golden Globe nominations were announced, missing just six films total. Since then, I’ve screened every shortlisted documentary, international feature, and short film. I’m predicting exactly two films that I haven’t seen to be nominated, and those are both Marvel movies I think will show up in the visual effects category. I feel ready and I’m hoping that it will be full of great surprises and not too many unfortunate snubs. I’ve written plenty about every category and I don’t think I have much left to say. I’m eager to see what makes the cut!

I’m not getting up at 5:18am tomorrow to watch the nominations, but it’s the first thing I’ll be doing when I get up a bit later. As soon as I am awake, you can expect detailed reactions by category as soon as I’m up and start posting. Click on category headings below for full analysis for each race, and film titles to read my reviews! Leave your thoughts and predictions in the comments!

No guts, no glory:
Joachim Trier (“The Worst Person in the World”) for Best Director
“Mass” for Best Picture
Simon Rex in Best Actor for “Red Rocket”

Final Predictions:

 
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick…BOOM!
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Best Director
Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)
Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mike Faist (West Side Story)
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Ruth Negga (Passing)

Best Original Screenplay
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Mass

Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog

Best Cinematography
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Best Production Design
Belfast
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

Best Costume Design
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

Best Film Editing
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick…BOOM!

Best Original Score
Dune
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Original Song
“Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)
“Guns Go Bang” (The Harder They Fall)
“Be Alive” (King Richard)
“No Time to Die” (No Time to Die)
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” (Respect)

Best Sound
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick…BOOM!
West Side Story

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley

Best Visual Effects
Dune
Eternals
The Matrix Resurrections
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home

Best Animated Feature
Belle
Encanto
Flee
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon

Best Documentary Short
Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis
Day of Rage
The Queen of Basketball
Sophie and the Baron
The Takeover

Best Animated Short
Namoo
Only a Child
Souvenir Souvenir
The Windshield Wiper
Us Again

Best Live Action Short
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
Distances
The Long Goodbye
When the Sun Sets
You’re Dead Helen

Best Documentary
Attica
Flee
Procession
The Rescue
Summer of Soul

Best International Feature
Drive My Car
The Hand of God
A Hero
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom 

The Worst Person in the World