Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress

I’m offering winner predictions in all categories for the Oscars as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Actress.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

I’m offering predictions in all categories for the Oscar nominations as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Actress.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The competition: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Previous winners: Frances McDormand, Renee Zellweger, Olivia Colman, Frances McDormand, Emma Stone, Brie Larson, Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchett
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: The only first-time nominee in this race is Stewart, who also represents the lone nomination for her film. Kidman won in 2002 for “The Hours” and this marks her fifth nod, with additional bids for “Moulin Rouge,” “Rabbit Hole,” and “Lion.” This is the fourth nomination for Cruz, who won in 2008 for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and was also cited for “Volver” and “Nine.” Colman won on her first try in 2018 for “The Favourite” and was nominated again last year for “The Father.” Chastain was nominated in 2011 and 2012 for “The Help” and “Zero Dark Thirty,” respectively. None of these films are up for Best Picture. The precursor season has been very divided with inconsistent nominees. Chastain won at SAG and the Critics Choice Awards, while Kidman took home the Golden Globe, but Stewart and Cruz sat some of those competitions out.

Who should win: Chastain
Who will win: I had been sticking with Stewart for so long, but after her SAG snub and then her loss at the Critics Choice Awards to apparent new frontrunner Chastain, I think I’m officially switching over to the latter. Like last year, anyone could theoretically win here, but it’s likely Chastain is ahead of the rest.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Jennifer Hudson (Respect), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)

For your information: Chastain has two previous nominations, for “Zero Dark Thirty” and “The Help.” Colman has two previous nominations for “The Crown” and was also recognized for “The Father” and “The Favourite.” Gaga was nominated for “A Star is Born.” Hudson won in 2006 for “Dreamgirls.” Kidman has nine previous nominations, with one win, for “Big Little Lies” in 2018. Only Gaga is also nominated this year as part of her ensemble. All but eight times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar, with the most recent case of that not happening being last year when Viola Davis beat eventual Oscar champ Frances McDormand. This year is interesting since Kidman beat Chastain, Colman, and Gaga at the Golden Globes, only Gaga is nominated at BAFTA, and Gaga and Hudson didn’t make the Oscar list. Expected nominee Kristen Stewart is absent from this list but in the Oscar lineup, along with Penélope Cruz.

Who should win? Chastain is my clear favorite from this list.

Who will win? I think Gaga wins here, though it could easily be Colman or Kidman too.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Jessica Chastain, Olivia Colman, Penélope Cruz, Nicole Kidman, Kristen Stewart

Having the nominees announced in alphabetical order can be a comforting – or distressing – thing depending on the circumstances, and in this case I was very relieved to hear Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) called first since I had expected her to get snubbed. Others were likely thrilled that Kristen Stewart (Spencer) made the cut, bouncing back from SAG and BAFTA snubs and getting in over Lady Gaga, who made both those lists. The other surprising inclusion was Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), who did get some good buzz but didn’t have much precursor support. It’s a shame that Alana Haim, whose film underperformed in a major way, couldn’t get in, while two expected and worthwhile performances, Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) and Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) round out the list. It’s interesting to point out that none of these films are up for Best Picture, and aside from Stewart, who is her film’s only nomination, each has only one or two other bids.

My current bet to win: With Gaga out of the race, I’m going to default back to Stewart, though this is going to be a very competitive category.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Viola Davis, Andra Day, Vanessa Kirby, Frances McDormand, Carey Mulligan

This year’s locks: Olivia Colman

Very likely: Lady Gaga, Nicole Kidman

Possible: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim, Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Hudson, Rachel Zegler

Unlikely: Tessa Thompson, Penélope Cruz, Renate Reinsve, Emilia Jones

The rundown: It’s easy to think this category is in complete chaos after seeing the BAFTA lineup, but it’s important to remember that only Frances McDormand, who won both prizes, translated to this race last year. The SAG snub for presumed frontrunner Kristen Stewart (Spencer) is much more alarming, though I still think she can get in since her awards season performance leading up to that point was very strong. Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) seems like the surest thing, and it’s important to note that she also missed last year with BAFTA despite “The Father” otherwise doing well. The lone Globe-SAG-BAFTA nominee is Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), who’s probably safe even if her film isn’t, and I think Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) is fine too because her first has only gained momentum. I think that Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), who did manage a BAFTA bid, will grab the fifth slot, which sadly means that there’s no room for Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and would make the second time she got snubbed after hitting most of the precursors following “A Most Violent Year.” SAG added an actress who was favored to win this race earlier this year before missing with most groups, Jennifer Hudson (Respect), and it’s also possible that Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) rides a wave of nominations for her film. Tessa Thompson (Passing) and Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World) scored BAFTA nominations, but I don’t think their films will be received warmly enough, and the same goes for Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), who might have had a better shot if her film had been submitted by Spain for Best International Feature.

For your consideration: I was delighted to see Emilia Jones (CODA) earn a BAFTA nomination, but I think that she’s not as well-known as the other contenders in this category and that her being British is what helped her there. What a wonderful inclusion that would be though!

Forecasted winner: Who knows? If she gets nominated, I think Stewart could still win.

SAG Nominees: Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Kristen Stewart (Spencer), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Tessa Thompson (Passing), Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)

This is the biggest snub of the day and likely the season. Even if she wasn’t going to be the winner, Stewart was expected to be a nominee. The surprise win at the Golden Globes by Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) added a bit of competition to this race, but the absence of Stewart here is a real shock. The beneficiary of the open slot was Jennifer Hudson (Respect), who was originally expected to be a major contender and had dropped off throughout much of the precursors. She joins Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), both here on their own, and Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), who gets an unexpected boost from her film’s inclusion in the ensemble category.

Who will win? With Stewart out of the race, it’s anyone’s guess. I think Gaga might actually win, but it could be Kidman or Colman too.

SAG Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

Last year’s nominees: Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy), Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

This list seems relatively firmed up, but it’s possible someone will drop off now or just end up getting snubbed at the Oscars. At the head of the pack are Kristen Stewart (Spencer), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), and Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos). Next up might be Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), though they could be overtaken by Rachel Zegler (West Side Story), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Jennifer Hudson (Respect), Tessa Thompson (Passing), Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth), or Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers).

Current predictions:
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

AFT Awards: Best Actress in a Leading Role

This is the second category of the 14th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. I’m drawing only from films that were either released or playing at a film festival in the 2020 calendar year. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them.. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Laure Calamy (My Donkey, My Lover and I), Kiera Allen (Run), Zora Howard (Premature), Emily Skeggs (Dinner in America), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Jessie Buckley (I'm Thinking of Ending Things), Jo Ellen Pellman (The Prom), Madeline Grey DeFreece (Tahara), Rachel Brosnahan (I'm Your Woman), Saltanat Nauruz (Welcome to the USA), Sarah Paulson (Run), Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead), Sophie Hawkshaw (Ellie and Abbie (and Ellie’s Dead Aunt)), Tessa Thompson (Sylvie's Love), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Runners-up:
Avigail Harari (Honeymood)
Aubrey Plaza (Black Bear)
Radha Blank (The 40-Year-Old Version)
Alena Yiv (Asia)
Cristin Milioti (Palm Springs)

The winner:
Clare Dunne (Herself) delivered a wonderfully endearing portrait of a young mother desperate to do whatever she could to protect her family. You can watch my great interview with her here.

Other nominees:
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Anne Celestino Mota (Alice Junior)
Lola Petticrew (Dating Amber)
Micaela Ramazzotti (The Best Years)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The competition: Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

Previous winners: Renee Zellweger, Olivia Colman, Frances McDormand, Emma Stone, Brie Larson, Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Lawrence
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: McDormand has won this award twice, in 2017 for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” and in 1996 for “Fargo.” She has three additional previous nominations, all in the supporting category, for “North Country,” “Almost Famous,” and “Mississippi Burning.” She is also nominated as a producer on her film this year. Davis won an Oscar in 2016 for “Fences” and was nominated before that for “The Help” and “Doubt.” Mulligan has contended once before, for “An Education” in 2009. This is the first nomination for both Day and Kirby. Only McDormand and Mulligan’s films are nominated for Best Picture.

This may well be the most interesting and unpredictable category of the year. Day won the Golden Globe, beating the other four nominees, but wasn’t even nominated by SAG. Mulligan won the Critics Choice prize, and Davis triumphed at SAG. Only McDormand and Kirby are nominated at BAFTA, which hands out its awards this weekend. I can’t find another historical instance of such discord between groups. When Sharon Stone and Isabelle Huppert won Globes and then weren’t nominated by SAG, they ended up losing the Oscar. This category is anyone’s guess!

Who should win: Mulligan
Who will win: I would be genuinely shocked if it was Kirby given the lack of other support for her film, but any of the other four could easily win. Though I’d love to see Mulligan, I think Day is going to win this.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Amy Adams’ troubled mother (Hillbilly Elegy), Viola Davis’ talented performer (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Vanessa Kirby’s grieving mother (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand’s exploring nomad (Nomadland), and Carey Mulligan’s revenge-seeker (Promising Young Woman).

For your information: Adams has six previous individual nominations, most recently double bids for “Sharp Objects” and “Vice” in 2018, plus three ensemble bids, one of which she won, in 2013 for “American Hustle.” Davis has won four individual prizes, for “The Help” in 2011, “How to Get Away with Murder” in 2014 and 2015, and “Fences” in 2016. She won the ensemble prize for the first of those and earned another individual nod and two more ensemble bids. Kirby was previously nominated twice as part of the cast of “The Crown.” McDormand has won three individual prizes, for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” in 2017, “Olive Kitteridge” in 2014, and “Fargo” in 1996. She won the ensemble prize for the first of those and earned another two individual nods and one more ensemble bid. Mulligan was nominated in 2009 for “An Education” both individually and as part of the ensemble and as part of the “Mudbound” cast in 2017. All but Adams are nominated for the corresponding Oscar, and the other four all lost to Andra Day at the Golden Globes. Mulligan triumphed at the Critics Choice Awards. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? Mulligan is my clear favorite from this very good list.

Who will win? I’m betting tentatively on Mulligan over McDormand and Davis.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 5/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Viola Davis, Andra Day, Vanessa Kirby, Frances McDormand, Carey Mulligan

No surprises here, and just like last year, this is the exact Golden Globes list for drama actress, dismissing SAG addition Amy Adams and subbing back in Globe winner Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), who managed to get in despite missing at SAG and her film having no other support. Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) is also completely alone, while Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) was one of the stars of a film that didn’t score as well as it could have today. The other two nominees, who will fight it out with Day for the win - Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) – saw their films perform about as expected without making it into too many technical categories to indicate overwhelming support. Regardless of how their films did, this is a fine list, though I would have loved to see Zendaya make the cut.

My current bet to win: I’m going to back Day though it would be great if Mulligan could pull it off.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Cynthia Erivo, Scarlett Johansson, Saiorse Ronan, Charlize Theron, Renee Zellweger

This year’s locks: Frances McDormand, Viola Davis, Frances McDormand

Very likely: Vanessa Kirby

Possible: Andra Day, Zendaya, Amy Adams

Unlikely: Sophia Loren, Nicole Beharie, Sidney Flanigan, Rosamund Pike

The rundown: This category is an interesting one because four of the nominees seem completely set and the fifth one is – or was – more up in the air. There’s no scenario in which Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) don’t make the cut. The same goes for Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman), though her past awards history isn’t quite as formidable. It’s conceivable that Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) could be left off because no one is talking about her movie, but I think she’s safe. Even after she won the Golden Globe, I would have said that Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), who missed out on a SAG bid, was not going to get nominated, but then I went ahead and did some research for a Globe-win-no-SAG-yes-Oscar piece for AwardsWatch, and it’s overwhelmingly true that such individuals DO end up getting nominated. I would have loved to see Zendaya (Malcolm and Marie) get the fifth spot, but she doesn’t have much to suggest buzz aside from a Critics Choice nomination. Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy) did end up on the SAG list, but that mention feels like Hilary Swank’s non-Oscar inclusion for “Conviction.” Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) might be looking better if she had scored a Globe nomination or her film had been submitted by Italy in the Best International Feature category. Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth) and Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always) wouldn’t be shocking choices, though they’re not likely to garner enough support at this point. It would be even more startling as her Globe victory, but Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) obviously impressed some people and shouldn’t be counted out entirely.

For your consideration: I was blown away by Clare Dunne (Herself) in a movie that doesn’t seem to be Amazon’s number one campaign interest. Watch my interview with her here – I wish she had more of a shot.

Forecasted winner: I’m very tentatively picking Mulligan though I think that McDormand or even Day might be likelier.

SAG Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5 
Who’s missing? Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Zendaya (Malcolm and Marie), Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead)

Well, it seems that there are a core four nominees here and that the fifth one might be a bit of a wild card. The inclusion of Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy) is an eyebrow-raiser mainly because most critics despised the film, though I think I liked it more than many and think Adams is more deserving as a nominee than her costar Glenn Close, also a nominee. Globe choice Day is out while Zendaya has yet to surge. Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) is once again the lone nominee from her film, as are Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) and Frances McDormand (Nomadland) without non-acting categories from this group. Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) gets a great boost from the inclusion of her ensemble here.

Who will win? Honestly, I’m not so sure. Maybe Davis?

SAG Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

Last year’s nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Lupita Nyong’o (Us), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)

I’m making predictions for SAG, which will announce its picks on Thursday, February 4th, just after the Golden Globe nominations being unveiled on Wednesday, though I may revise them then if there are some big surprises. This is a very competitive category this year, and there are some definite frontrunners. Count on Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) for sure. Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) seem likely too. For the fifth slot, will it be Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead), Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always), Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth), Jessie Buckley (I’m Thinking of Ending Things), Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy), Kate Winslet (Ammonite), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Zendaya (Malcolm and Marie), or someone else entirely?

Current predictions:
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Zendaya (Malcolm and Marie)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The competition: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)

Previous winners: Olivia Colman, Frances McDormand, Emma Stone, Brie Larson, Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Lawrence, Meryl Streep
My winner: Holliday Grainger (Animals)
The facts: Zellweger won in 2003 for “Cold Mountain” on her third consecutive nomination after “Bridget Jones’ Diary” and “Chicago.” Theron also won that year, for “Monster,” and was nominated again in 2005 for “North Country.” Ronan has been cited before in 2007 for “Atonement,” in 2015 for “Brooklyn,” and in 2017 for “Lady Bird.” This is the first nomination for Erivo and Johansson, both of whom have another bid this year: Erivo for her song “Stand Up” and Johansson for her supporting turn in “Jojo Rabbit.” Golden Globe comedy winner Awkwafina is not nominated. Only Johansson and Ronan’s films are nominated for Best Picture. Zellweger, whose film has one other bid, for makeup and hairstyling, has won every precursor.

Who should win: Zellweger or Johansson
Who will win: No one else has momentum to defeat Zellweger.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Cynthia Erivo’s Harriet Tubman (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson’s divorcing actress (Marriage Story), Lupita Nyong’o’s two versions of herself (Us), Charlize Theron’s conflicted journalist (Bombshell), and Renee Zellweger’s Judy Garland (Judy).

For your information: Zellweger won back-to-back prizes in 2002 and 2003, for “Chicago” and “Cold Mountain,” and was also nominated for “Jerry Maguire” in 1996 and “Bridget Jones’ Diary” in 2001. She won as part of the “Chicago” cast in 2002. Theron won in 2003 for “Monster” and was nominated in 2004 for “The Life and Death of Peter Sellers” and in 2005 for “North Country,” in addition to an ensemble bid for “The Cider House Rules” in 1999. Nyong’o won in 2013 for “12 Years a Slave,” was nominated as part of its cast, and won last year as part of the “Black Panther” ensemble. Double nominee Johansson earns her first bids this year, for this film and for “Jojo Rabbit,” for which she also contends as part of the ensemble. This is Erivo’s first nomination. Only Theron is nominated as part of her ensemble. Zellweger has won the Globe and the Critics’ Choice Award. Nyong’o is the only one not nominated for an Oscar. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? Zellweger and Johansson are definitely my picks from this bunch.

Who will win? There’s no reason to think this would be anyone else but Zellweger.

AFT Awards: Best Actress in a Leading Role

This is the second category of the 13th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them and drawn from a pool of approximately 233 films. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Adèle Haenel (Portrait of a Lady on Fire), Alexi Pappas (Olympic Dreams), Avigail Kovari (Red Cow), Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart), Carol Duarte (Invisible Life), Julia Stockler (Invisible Life), Kaitlyn Dever (Booksmart), Mia Wasikowska (Judy and Punch), Natalia Dyer (Yes, God, Yes), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Tiffany Chu (Ms. Purple)

Runners-up:
Anna Margaret Hollyman (Sister Aimee)
Tatiana Maslany (Pink Wall)
Emma Thompson (Late Night)
Stav Strashko (Flawless)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)

The winner:
Holliday Grainger (Animals) delivered a fully unhinged and then appropriately retrospective performance as a partier who never gave being serious a second thought.

Other nominees:
Jessie Buckley (Wild Rose)
Maya Erskine (Plus One)
Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Awkwafina (The Farewell)

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking Lupita Nyong’o over Ronan
My ballot: Come back later this week!
The nominees: Cynthia Erivo, Scarlett Johansson, Saoirse Ronan, Charlize Theron, Renee Zellweger

This category, like Best Actor, dismisses a SAG addition – Lupita Nyong’o in this case – and reverts back entirely to Globe nominees, which happens to be only the drama list. I wasn’t gung-ho for Nyong’o, but I’m most disappointed to see Awkwafina (The Farewell) and her entire film left off. Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) and Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) are both in films that managed a respectable if unspectacular given the possibilities six nominations, while the other three - Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), and Renee Zellweger (Judy) – all saw their films earn just one or two additional bids. I would have been thrilled to see someone like BAFTA nominee Jessie Buckley (Wild Rose) here, but such creative thinking seems destined for a future year instead.

My current bet to win: I think this goes to Zellweger.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Yalitza Aparicio, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga, Melissa McCarthy

This year’s locks: Renee Zellweger, Scarlett Johansson, Charlize Theron

Very likely: Cynthia Erivo

Possible: Lupita Nyong’o, Awkwafina, Saoirse Ronan

Unlikely: Alfre Woodard

The rundown: This is a pretty contained race, one that has seven women competing with one waiting in the wings and likely too late to stage a surprise appearance. Golden Globe winner Renee Zellweger (Judy) is the surest thing, and I certainly hope that Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) won’t fall victim to a shocking snub, though I’m worried that may be the case. Charlize Theron (Bombshell) seems set for a bid as well, as does Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), though less universal support for her film could lead to her missing out. Lupita Nyong’o (Us) didn’t score a Globe nomination but made the SAG list, and that seems likely to earn her a spot here. Awkwafina (The Farewell) missed with SAG but could rebound after her expected Globe win. Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) made the Globe list without her film and then was omitted by SAG, and so it seems like this may not earn her a fourth nomination at age twenty-five. These seven make up the Critics Choice list, and it’s still possible that one woman not cited there – Alfre Woodard (Clemency) – could show up, though the film hasn’t been showing up as strongly as it should have, which makes sense given its very late release.

One possible crazy scenario: If her film makes a surprise appearance in other races, which it could, Adele Haenel (Portrait of a Lady on Fire) might earn a wholly unexpected bid here.

Forecasted winner: It seems like Zellweger will win here.