Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

I’m offering winner predictions in all categories for the Oscars as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Supporting Actress.

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

I’m offering predictions in all categories for the Oscar nominations as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Supporting Actress.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The competition: Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Judi Dench (Belfast), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

Previous winners: Yuh-Jung Youn, Laura Dern, Regina King, Allison Janney, Viola Davis, Alicia Vikander, Patricia Arquette
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: The only woman in this race who has been nominated before. The 87-year-old actress, who is just a few months younger than the oldest-ever nominee in this category, Gloria Stuart for “Titanic,” won in 1998 for “Shakespeare in Love,” and received additional nominations for “Mrs. Brown,” “Chocolat,” “Iris,” “Mrs. Henderson Presents,” “Notes on a Scandal,” and “Philomena.” Buckley’s film is the only one not up for Best Picture. DeBose has won most of the precursors this year, and the same role won Rita Moreno this prize exactly sixty years ago.
Who should win: DeBose
Who will win: Dunst had heat for a while, but DeBose is going to win this.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Jessie Buckley, Ariana DeBose, Judi Dench, Kirsten Dunst, Aunjanue Ellis

Now this upsets me more than anything. Caitriona Balfe was one of the strongest and most memorable parts of her film, and she gets ignored in favor of Judi Dench (Belfast), who has a history of nominations for very minor appearances. I am much happier to see Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), who I’ve liked for a while and who I remember being a standout in her film. The rest of the list is expected, with Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) bouncing back from a SAG snub and joining Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) and Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog). It’s just a shame that both Ruth Negga and Ann Dowd got ignored for their completely shut-out films.

My current bet to win: I’ll stick with DeBose even if Dunst seems to be gaining momentum.

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Maria Bakalova, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, Amanda Seyfried, Yuh-Jung Youn

This year’s locks: Kirsten Dunst, Caitriona Balfe, Ariana DeBose

Very likely: Aunjanue Ellis

Possible: Ruth Negga, Ann Dowd, Cate Blanchett, Marlee Matlin, Rita Moreno, Judi Dench

The rundown: I predicted this category entirely correctly last year, but I’m not quite as confident this time around. Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), and Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) seem like sure things, though you never know. Dunst’s miss with BAFTA might be cause for concern, but their rules are very different and her omission would be very shocking. Ruth Negga (Passing) scored with both the Golden Globes and SAG, but the lack of attention for her film in other categories means she could be easily left off. Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) missed out on a SAG nomination but should be okay getting in (she also scored at BAFTA, which wasn’t a guarantee). Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) got her spot, and I’d be thrilled if she managed to get in, though it’s hard to know how her film is going to do. On the note of films with likely mild receptions, Ann Dowd (Mass) will have some difficulty on that front, with bids from only the Critics Choice Association and BAFTA, while other options, like Marlee Matlin (CODA), Rita Moreno (West Side Story), who won this prize for the original film sixty years ago, and Judi Dench (Belfast), might get a boost from their films doing well in other categories. Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), a BAFTA nominee, could crash this party, but that seems unlikely, especially since her previous BAFTA bid, for “Wild Rose,” didn’t lead to any attention for that film.

For your consideration: If voters really embrace her film, Rebecca Ferguson (Dune) might earn a deserved nomination for a standout performance.

Forecasted winner: It looks like DeBose is the frontrunner, though it could also be Dunst.

AFT Awards: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

This is the fourth category of the 14th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. I’m drawing only from films that were either released or playing at a film festival in the 2020 calendar year. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them.. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Lily Collins (Mank), Maude Apatow (The King of Staten Island), Zazie Beetz (Nine Days), Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)

 
Runners-up: 

Marsha Stephanie Blake (I'm Your Woman)
Alma Noce (The Best Years)
Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite)
Gayle Rankin (The Climb)
Freya Mavor (The Keeper)

The winner:
Sarah Gadon (Black Bear) subtly crafted a marvelously compelling character who wasn’t what she seemed and then became something else entirely.

Other nominees:
Shira Haas (Asia)
Bel Powley (The King of Staten Island)
Eve Hewson (Tesla)
Aubrey Plaza (Happiest Season)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The competition: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)

Previous winners: Laura Dern, Regina King, Allison Janney, Viola Davis, Alicia Vikander, Patricia Arquette, Lupita N’yongo
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Colman won an Oscar in 2018 for “The Favourite,” famously beating Close, who lost, on her seventh try, for “The Wife.” Her first three career nominations came in this category three years in a row in 1982, 1983, and 1984 for “The World According to Garp,” “The Big Chill,” and “The Natural.” This is the first nomination for Bakalova, Seyfried, and Youn. Colman, Seyfried, and Youn all have their films nominated for Best Picture. The Golden Globe winner in this race, Jodie Foster, isn’t cited here. Bakalova won the Critics Choice Award and Youn won the SAG Award.
Who should win: Seyfried or Bakalova
Who will win: It could very well be Bakalova, but I suspect Youn will repeat her SAG victory.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 5/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Maria Bakalova, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, Amanda Seyfried, Yuh-Jung Youn

No surprises here, for me at least, though Golden Globe- and SAG-nominated Helena Zengel didn’t make the cut, nor did Jodie Foster, which makes her only the third non-comedy Globe acting winner not to get nominated by Oscar. Amanda Seyfried (Mank) missed at SAG and Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari) wasn’t cited by the Globes, but they both got in, as did Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), whose chances some doubted when she lost the comedy lead actress Globe race. Despite no support for her film, which earned only a makeup and hairstyling bid, and a Razzie nomination for worst performance for the same turn, Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) is here, as is Olivia Colman (The Father). This doesn’t look like my list, but, based on the likely contenders up to this point, I don’t have any issues with it.

My current bet to win: I’m betting on Bakalova, but Close could still eclipse her.

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Kathy Bates, Laura Dern, Scarlett Johansson, Florence Pugh, Margot Robbie

This year’s locks: Olivia Colman

Very likely: Glenn Close, Maria Bakalova, Amanda Seyfried

Possible: Yuh-Jung Youn, Helena Zengel, Jodie Foster, Ellen Burstyn

Unlikely: Dominique Fishback, Olivia Cooke

The rundown: This category felt more secure before Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman), a presumed shoo-in, wasn’t nominated by either the Globes or SAG. Amanda Seyfried (Mank) missed out with SAG, while Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari) scored there. Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) lost her comedy lead actress race at the Globes, which has prompted some to doubt her chances, while Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) pulled off a surprise Globe win after being cited almost nowhere else. Twelve-year-old Helena Zengel (News of the World) is one of three actresses who scored with both the Globes and SAG, joined by Olivia Colman (The Father) and Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), whose chances I’m not so sure of but wouldn’t risk predicting her being snubbed. I’m betting that Foster doesn’t make the cut, even though there’s a swell of attention on her right now. There aren’t many other possibilities here, though either Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah) or Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal) could benefit from late-breaking love for their films.

For your consideration: How amazing would it be if the underrated Bel Powley (The King of Staten Island) could score here for her turn in a comedy?

Forecasted winner: I really don’t know. Maybe it will be Close provided she gets in?

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The competition: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Florence Pugh (Little Women), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

Previous winners: Regina King, Allison Janney, Viola Davis, Alicia Vikander, Patricia Arquette, Lupita N’yongo, Anne Hathaway
My winner: Yeo-jeong Jo (Parasite)
The facts: The only past winner in this category is Bates, who won in 1990 for “Misery” and was nominated again in 1998 for “Primary Colors” and in 2002 for “About Schmidt.” Dern, who has won every precursor, was nominated in 1991 for “Rambling Rose” and in 2014 for “Wild.” This is Robbie’s second bid after “I, Tonya.” This is Johansson’s first time nominated, and she also contends in the lead race for “Marriage Story.” This is Pugh’s first nomination. Bates and Robbie are the only ones whose films aren’t up for Best Picture.
Who should win: Robbie or Johansson
Who will win: There’s no suspense left in this category with Jennifer Lopez out of the running. Dern is going to win.

AFT Awards: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

This is the fourth category of the 13th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them and drawn from a pool of approximately 233 films. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Alia Shawkat (Animals), Isla Fisher (The Beach Bum), Julia Fox (Uncut Gems), Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Moran Rosenblatt (Red Cow)

Runners-up:
Lily-Rose Depp (A Faithful Man)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Thomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Kate Berlant (After Class)

The winner:
Yeo-jeong Jo (Parasite) crafted a marvelously textured portrait of a naïve housewife whose readiness to accept the tall tales of others was central to her film’s emphatic nature.

Other nominees:
Sydney Sweeney (Big Time Adolescence)
Michaela Watkins (Sword of Trust)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 3/5, missing Bates and Pugh
My ballot: Come back later this week!
The nominees: Kathy Bates, Laura Dern, Scarlett Johansson, Florence Pugh, Margot Robbie

Here we have our most unfortunate snub, which is Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), who seems headed to a nod with no problem after Globe and SAG bids and now finds herself omitted for no good reason. I don’t mind seeing Globe nominee Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) here since she was good in her film, but it’s sad to me that such a great movie was ignored otherwise, especially for the superb turns from Paul Walter Hauser and Sam Rockwell. Despite missing out with both the Globes and SAG, Florence Pugh (Little Women) managed to earn a solid bid for a banner year. Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit) is now a double nominee, which must be satisfying a full fifteen years after her first Oscar-worthy role, and both of her films earned a healthy six bids, including one for expected winner Laura Dern (Marriage Story). Rounding out the list is Margot Robbie (Bombshell), recognized for the film that earned her Globe and SAG bids rather than the bigger one that netted ten nominations and a second mention in the corresponding BAFTA race for her. These actresses really all were great, even if many other women were ignored.

My current bet to win: With Lopez out of the way, there should be no stopping Dern now.

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Amy Adams, Regina King, Emma Stone, Marina de Tavira, Rachel Weisz

This year’s locks: Jennifer Lopez, Laura Dern, Margot Robbie

Possible: Scarlett Johansson, Zhao Shuzhen, Florence Pugh, Nicole Kidman, Kathy Bates, Annette Bening, Maggie Smith

Unlikely: Anna Paquin

The rundown: This category seems to have three names in common, with the other two spots wholly up for grabs. I’m not sure why anyone wouldn’t consider Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) and Margot Robbie (Bombshell) locks, and no one is debating Golden Globe winner Laura Dern (Marriage Story) as a surefire nominee. From there, things diverge considerably. Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), who is expected to also contend in the lead race for “Marriage Story,” scored mentions from SAG and Critics Choice. Annette Bening (The Report) merited a Globe nomination for a film no one is otherwise talking about, and Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) was the lone Globe honoree from a movie that, since then, has attracted some controversy which I expect will negate her chances. SAG entered Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) into the conversation, but I don’t think she’ll compete with her costars. The Critics Choice list also included Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell), who I think will break through with sentimentality, and Florence Pugh (Little Women), who has been called the MVP of a film that hasn’t resounded with a handful of awards bodies. I still think Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey) has a shot, especially because of just how much audience members were cracking up at an awards screening I attended in Los Angeles. I can’t imagine that Anna Paquin (The Irishman) will actually earn a bit for what’s essentially a silent cameo, but if voters really go nuts for the film, she may just be in.

One possible crazy scenario: Her name is announced, but Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) gets nominated for a different performance in an even more popular film.

Forecasted winner: This category is often fond of first-time nominees, which makes me think that Lopez will take it over Dern.

AFT Awards: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

This is the fourth category of the 12th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them and drawn from a pool of approximately 200 films. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Andrea Riseborough (The Death of Stalin), Claire Foy (First Man), Haley Lu Richardson (Support the Girls), Shayna McHale (Support the Girls)

Runners-up:
Tessa Thompson (Sorry to Bother You)
Anna Camp (Egg)
Amy Adams (Vice)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Danai Gurira (Black Panther)

The winner:
Elizabeth Debicki (Widows) revealed a depth of character that wasn’t apparent from her appearance or even her demeanor, far more resilient and aware of her aspirations than she let anyone else know.

Other nominees:
Rachel McAdams (Disobedience) disappeared into the repressed identity of her character, playing a part but fully aware that it didn’t include her most crucial attribute. Barbara Lennie (Everybody Knows) stood out among a cast of much better-known actors for her determination to be heard and to be specific when surrounded by rumors. Letitia Wright (Black Panther) demonstrated a wondrous energy and zeal for the work she did and the intelligence she possessed, fully capturing the spirit of her film. Nina Arianda (Stan and Ollie) put on an accent but conveyed her character’s filter-less judgment through much more than just her voice.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The competition: Amy Adams (Vice), Marina de Tavira (Roma), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Previous winners: Allison Janney, Viola Davis, Alicia Vikander, Patricia Arquette, Lupita N’yongo, Anne Hathaway, Octavia Spencer
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Adams has five previous nominations, the most recent of which came in 2013 for “American Hustle.” Stone won in 2016 for “La La Land” and was nominated before that in 2014 for “Birdman.” Weisz won on her only nomination in 2005 for “The Constant Gardener.” This is the first nomination for both de Tavira and King. De Tavira would be the first performer to win this award for an entirely foreign-language performance, since Penelope Cruz’s performance in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” included plenty of English. Starring in a Best Picture nominee isn’t crucial – five of the past fifteen winners have triumphed despite that handicap, and King is the one who would benefit most this year. This category is no stranger to double nominees from the same film. In fact, it happened all four years between 2008 and 2011, with two of those cases resulting in wins for one of those two nominated women. King won the Globe and the Critics’ Choice Award but wasn’t nominated at SAG, where Emily Blunt, who isn’t on this list, won for “A Quiet Place.”

Who should win: I’m all for anyone in this category. De Tavira impressed in her film, embedding humor and humanity in her portrayal of a frazzled mother and wife. Though I didn’t like her film, Adams was completely on point, funnier than usual and totally committed to the role. King was a strong element of an underrated and underrepresented film, and even if I’d choose some of its technical aspects to reward instead, she’s definitely worthy of praise. Both Adams and Weisz were absolutely terrific, and though I’ve picked Weisz when I’ve had to, I’d be ecstatic and perfectly satisfied if either of them won.
Who will win: The expectation was that Adams would win the SAG with King out of the running, but when she didn’t, it suggested that King can overcome that problematic snub to triumph. The only thing that would be her undoing would be a surge in popularity for the three stars of the two nominations leaders, but I don’t see it happening.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Amy Adams’ former Second Lady (Vice), Emily Blunt’s protective mother (A Quiet Place), Margot Robbie’s competitive queen (Mary, Queen of Scots), Emma Stone’s manipulative mistress (The Favourite), and Rachel Weisz’s duplicitous duchess (The Favourite).

For your information: Both Adams and Stone are also nominated this year in the TV limited series actress race. Adams has four previous solo film nominations, for “Junebug,” “Doubt,” “The Fighter,” and “Arrival,” plus ensemble bids for the middle two and a win for “American Hustle” in 2013. Stone won for her individual role in “La La Land” in 2016, also with ensemble wins for “The Help” in 2011 and “Birdman” in 2014, along with a solo nomination for the latter. Weisz won on her only bid in 2005 for “The Constant Gardener.” Robbie was nominated last year for “I, Tonya.” Blunt was nominated in 2016 for “The Girl on the Train” and also contends in the lead actress category this year. Neither Blunt nor Robbie is nominated for an Oscar this year. None of these women are nominated as part of their ensembles. The winner of both the Golden Globe and the Critics’ Choice Award, Regina King, is not nominated. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? I wasn’t wowed by Robbie, and Blunt wouldn’t be my choice. Adams was great, but my vote would go to either Stone or Weisz, probably the latter.

Who will win? Without King in the mix, the expectation is that Adams wins her first solo SAG Award, with Weisz likeliest to upset.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking Claire Foy over de Tavira
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Marina de Tavira (Roma), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Last year, Lesley Manville surprised everyone by showing up here, and this year, we have a wonderful inclusion that many suspected early on but didn’t end up being a huge factor in the precursors: Mexican actress Marina de Tavira (Roma), a wonderful choice who helped her film tie for the mantle of most nominations. Claire Foy would have been a good choice, but I’m completely fine with this entire list, the best of all the acting categories, in my opinion. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) made the cut despite a SAG snub, earning just one of three bids for her mostly neglected film. Amy Adams (Vice) is the only nominee from her film I’m particularly behind, and I’m superbly excited that Emma Stone (The Favourite) and Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) both got in for the other film with the largest nominations haul.

My current bet to win: Even though the other three films cited did much better overall, I think King can still win this.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking Timothée Chalamet over Rockwell
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliott (A Star is Born), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)

I’m not overly disappointed with this category because I wasn’t championing Timothée Chalamet’s performance, but I do wish his absence might have led to the inclusion of someone much more exciting like Nicholas Hoult or Steven Yeun. I wasn’t all for Sam Rockwell (Vice) winning last year, and now his repeat nomination – for a very small role – feels unnecessary. I’m fine with the rest of the list, with Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) earning his film’s only acting nomination and Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) joining his costar and screenplay. Sam Elliott (A Star is Born) made the cut despite early snubs, with Golden Globe winner Mahershala Ali (Green Book) still looking strong as the frontrunner here.

My current bet to win: I’m sticking with 2016 victor Ali over last year’s unexpectedly included winner.

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Mary J. Blige, Allison Janney, Lesley Manville, Laurie Metcalf, Octavia Spencer

My choices: Coming in February!

This year’s locks: Amy Adams, Rachel Weisz, Emma Stone

Very likely: Regina King

Possible: Claire Foy, Thomasin McKenzie, Emily Blunt, Margot Robbie

Unlikely: Elizabeth Debicki, Nicole Kidman

The rundown: The biggest lock of the year would have been Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), who has collected a very healthy twenty-seven prizes for her work this far, but when she got snubbed by SAG, it sounded an alarm that has likely been silenced by her Globe win earlier this week, though a subsequent BAFTA snub isn’t good news either. She’s almost definitely set to join Amy Adams (Vice), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite), and Emma Stone (The Favourite), who should be safe even if their films underperform. The fifth slot is trickier. Claire Foy (First Man) managed a Golden Globe nomination even when her film was mostly shut out, and even though SAG ignored her, she can probably make the cut. Their choices were Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), a near-silent turn from an actress likelier to be cited for the performance this year in which she sings and dances, and Margot Robbie (Mary, Queen of Scots), a nominee last year whose film hasn’t shown up all that much this awards season. I’m devastated that Elizabeth Debicki (Widows) and her film have been ignored by almost all guilds and critics’ groups, and it would be great to see her show up anyway. Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) managed a Critics’ Choice Award nomination and several other mentions, and given her eternal popularity, it’s never smart to count her out. Some are backing Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians), but I don't think she'll earn enough votes. The other wild card is Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace), an actress whose performance belongs in the leading race but who will unfortunately probably be ignored altogether with her under-the-radar film.

One possible crazy scenario: Showing true fever for the foreign-language film that I’m predicting to win Best Picture, Marina de Tavira (Roma) joins her costar Yalitza Aparicio to take that fifth spot.

Forecasted winner: If she gets nominated, I think King takes it.

SAG Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 3/5, missing Blunt and Robbie
Who’s missing? Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Claire Foy (First Man), Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)

Well, this is troubling. No one thought that there was any reason to fear King being omitted, especially after she joined Amy Adams (Vice) as a double nominee at the Golden Globes. But she’s nowhere to be found after winning a handful of critics’ prizes already, and her film didn’t make the cut in ensemble as I had hoped it would. Also forgotten is Foy, who I would have thought would have been nominated after back-to-back wins the past two years for her TV work. Now, I haven’t seen Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place) in either of her nominated films, so I’m going to work up the courage to sit down and watch it within the next week so that I can comment on the validity of her placement here. Margot Robbie (Mary, Queen of Scots), on the other hand, didn’t impress me nearly as much as any of the other performers in this category. Their ensemble got snubbed, but at least Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) and Emma Stone (The Favourite), the third double nominee in this category, got in.

Who will win? Without King, who is the frontrunner? My movie is actually on Weisz.