Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Costume Design

I’m offering winner predictions in all categories for the Oscars as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Costume Design.

Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design

I’m offering predictions in all categories for the Oscar nominations as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Costume Design.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Costume Design

The competition: Cruella (Jenny Beavan), Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran), Dune (Jacqueline West and Bob Morgan), Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira), West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)

Previous winners: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Little Women, Black Panther, Phantom Thread, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Grand Budapest Hotel
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This is the eleventh nomination for Beavan, who won for “A Room with a View” and “Mad Max: Fury Road.” This is the eighth nomination for Durran, who won for “Anna Karenina” and “Little Women.” This is the fourth nomination for West, who was previously nominated for “Quills,” “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” and “The Revenant.” This is the second nomination for Parrini and Sequeira, who were previously nominated for “Pinocchio” and “The Shape of Water,” respectively. “Cruella” defeated all of these nominees aside from “Dune,” which won its own category, at the Costume Designers Guild Awards.
Who should win: “Cruella”
Who will win: It’s far from a guarantee, but Cruella could actually take down “Dune” here.

Oscar Nominees: Best Costume Design

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story

Here we have the lone bid for Cyrano, a film that could likely have performed a lot better had it actually been released. It’s not my favorite choice in this category, which would likely be Cruella, but I’m fine with it being here. It did manage to knock out “House of Gucci,” the first bad sign for a film that ended up with one measly nomination after some thought it would be a Best Picture nominee. Nightmare Alley is a great choice to join Dune and West Side Story, two other Best Picture nominees that created fresh looks for preexisting material with plenty of passionate fans.

My current bet to win: This will probably go to West Side Story, but I’d be thrilled if “Cruella” won.

Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinocchio

My choices: Coming soon!

This year’s locks: West Side Story, Cruella

Very likely: Dune

Possible: Nightmare Alley, House of Gucci, Cyrano, The French Dispatch, Spencer, The Power of the Dog

Unlikely: Last Night in Soho

The rundown: Like the ADG, the Costume Designers Guild has three categories – period, sci-fi/fantasy, and contemporary. I could see the entire period lineup transferring here: Cruella, Cyrano, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley, and West Side Story, though some are vulnerable since only one is a guaranteed best picture contender. From sci-fi/fantasy, expect only Dune, which should be safe here, but I could see missing if they went for other options. In contemporary, I’d love to see In the Heights and I know people would go nuts for Zola, but don’t count on that to happen. I’d watch out instead for The French Dispatch, Spencer, and The Power of the Dog. It would be great to get Last Night in Soho here (read my interview with costume designer Odile Dicks-Mireaux), but it doesn’t look like that film will get any traction. There are so many more films that could also show up here, especially after something like “Pinocchio” cracked the category last year.

For your consideration: The makeup and performances from The Eyes of Tammy Faye weren’t its only noteworthy elements, and it would be nice to see it show up here.

Forecasted winner: It will probably be Cruella.

AFT Awards: Best Costume Design

This is the ninth category of the 14th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. I’m drawing only from films that were either released or playing at a film festival in the 2020 calendar year. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Runners-up:
Mank
One Night in Miami
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Ema
Kajillioinaire

The winner:
Sylvie's Love (Phoenix Mellow) clothed its lovers and those in their orbit with vivid, colorful outfits that added layers to their personalities and dynamics.

Other nominees:
I'm Your Woman (Natalie O'Brien) – my interview with Natalie
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ann Roth)
Promising Young Woman (Nancy Steiner)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Susan Lyall)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Costume Design

The competition: Emma. (Alexandra Byrne), Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Ann Roth), Mank (Trish Summerville), Mulan (Bina Daigeler), and Pinocchio (Massimo Cantini Parrini)

Previous winners: Little Women, Black Panther, Phantom Thread, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Great Gatsby
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Byrne was previously nominated for “Mary Queen of Scots” in 2018, “Finding Neverland” in 2004, “Elizabeth” in 1998, and “Hamlet” in 1996. She won for “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” in 2007. Roth was nominated in 2002 for “The Hours,” in 1999 for “The Talented Mr. Ripley,” and in 1984 for “Places in the Heart.” She won in 1996 for “The English Patient.” The other three contenders are all first-time nominees. At the Costume Designers Guild Awards, “Mulan” defeated “Pinocchio” in the sci-fi/fantasy category, and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” beat “Emma” and “Mank” in the period race. Make sure to check out my interview with Trish Summerville about her incredible work in “Mank” if you haven’t already.
Who should win: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Who will win: It looks like 89-year-old Roth will triumph for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.

Oscar Nominees: Best Costume Design

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinocchio

Not too many surprises here, but I am disappointed to see “Promising Young Woman” left off and thought that “The Personal History of David Copperfield” could get in. Instead, two films I underestimated here but expected in other categories - Mulan and Pinocchio - got in, which I’m fine with since the work there was impressive. I’m happy that Trish Summerville, who I spoke to about Mank, is a nominee, along with Ann Roth, who I heard about repeatedly from other crew members on Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Rounding out the list is Emma, which is certainly a formidable costuming effort.

My current bet to win: I think Emma can win.

Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

My choices: Coming soon!

This year’s locks: Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank

Possible: The Personal History of David Copperfield, Promising Young Woman, One Night in Miami, Mulan, News of the World, Da 5 Bloods, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Story, Ammonite, The Prom, Pinocchio

The rundown: This category has some solid frontrunners, and most of them are among the fifteen nominees recognized in three separate races – contemporary, period, and sci-fi/fantasy – by the Costume Designers’ Guild, with one other - The Personal History of David Copperfield looking strong too. Emma should be fine here even if it doesn’t score anywhere else, while Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Mank (read my interview here) should be safe too. I’m betting on Promising Young Woman to take the last spot, though it’s a risky choice given that the only contemporary non-musical to get nominated in recent memory was “The Devil Wears Prada.” It has plenty of competition, including One Night in Miami, Mulan, News of the World and Da 5 Bloods, with Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, Ammonite, The Prom, and Pinocchio also possibilities.

For your consideration: Just like the production design, I was wowed by all of the costumes for I’m Your Woman, an Amazon release that doesn’t seem to be garnering much attention. Read that very worthwhile interview here.

Forecasted winner: I see this going to Emma or “The Personal History of David Copperfield.”

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Costume Design

The competition: The Irishman (Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson), Jojo Rabbit (Mayes C. Rubeo), Joker (Mark Bridges), Little Women (Jacqueline Durran), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Arianne Phillips)

Previous winners: Black Panther, Phantom Thread, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Great Gatsby, Anna Karenina
My winner: Dolemite Is My Name
The facts: This is Powell’s fifteenth nomination after double bids last year for “The Favourite” and “Mary Poppins Returns.” She won in 1998 for “Shakespeare in Love,” in 2004 for “The Aviator,” and in 2009 for “The Young Victoria.” This is Durran’s seventh nomination, and she won in 2012 for “Anna Karenina,” earning double nominations in 2017 for “Beauty and the Beast” and “Darkest Hour.” Bridges won in 2011 for “The Artist” and in 2017 for “Phantom Thread,” and was also nominated in 2014 for “Mr. Turner.” Phillips was nominated in 2005 for “Walk the Line” and in 2011 for “W.E.” At the Costume Designers Guild Awards, “Jojo Rabbit” defeated “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” and the other three films cited here weren’t nominated.

Who should win: “Little Women”
Who will win: It’s a competitive category. I’ll bet on Little Women, though it could easily be any of them.

AFT Awards: Best Costume Design

This is the ninth category of the 13th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Runners-up:
Bombshell, Hustlers, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Judy

The winner:
Dolemite Is My Name was a wondrous celebration of period outfits and signature spectacular style.

Other nominees:
Downton Abbey
Little Women
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Paradise Hills

Oscar Nominees: Best Costume Design

My predictions: 2/5
My ballot: Come back later this week!
The nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

This represents one of my worst categories this year in terms of accurate predictions. So much for “Dolemite Is My Name,” “Downton Abbey,” and “Hustlers,” three films that I thought would show up here and possibly in another category or two and ended up getting shut out. Instead, we’re left with a list of Best Picture nominees. Little Women makes the most sense as a nominee, and I can understand the appeal of the rest, including the period look of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, the many suits and casual outfits of The Irishman, the bright uniforms in Jojo Rabbit, and the muted dark colors of Joker. At least it’s a good list, even if many other films should have made the cut.

My current bet to win: I’ll pick Little Women here even if that might be unwise.

Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Black Panther, The Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, Mary Queen of Scots

My choices: Coming next week!

This year’s locks: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Very likely: Little Women

Possible: Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Hustlers, Rocketman, Knives Out, Judy, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, Aladdin, Ford v Ferrari, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Unlikely: Cats

The rundown: This category has some solid frontrunners, and most of them are among the fifteen nominees recognized in three separate races – contemporary, period, and sci-fi/fantasy – by the Costume Designers’ Guild. Period nominees Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Rocketman all stand a good chance. Aladdin is the only one of the sci-fi/fantasy nominees with a decent shot, while, from the contemporary list, Hustlers seems likeliest, with Mr. Rogers’ signature sweater in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood possible too. It’s unwise to predict that Little Women will miss, but after it didn’t show up among the CDG nominees, I’m worried the same fate will befall it as did “If Beale Street Could Talk” last year. Judy and Ford v Ferrari could also place, and I’m pretty sure that Cats is out of the race at this point.

One possible crazy scenario: It was nominated by the CDG, but Queen and Slim has ended up being so out of the awards conversation at this point that a mention for this weird but visually wondrous film would be unexpected.

Forecasted winner: If it can get nominated, I actually see this going to Dolemite Is My Name.

AFT Awards: Best Costume Design

This is the ninth category of the 12th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Runners-up:
Mary Poppins Returns, The Death of Stalin, Crazy Rich Asians

The winner:
Colette (Andrea Flesch) matched its title character’s energy with its gorgeous and creative outfits of all kinds.

Other nominees:
The Favourite (Sandy Powell)
Bohemian Rhapsody (Julian Day)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Caroline Eselin)
Black Panther (Ruth E. Carter)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Costume Design

The competition: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Mary Zophres), Black Panther (Ruth E. Carter), The Favourite (Sandy Powell), Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell), Mary Queen of Scots (Alexandra Byrne)

Previous winners: Phantom Thread, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Great Gatsby, Anna Karenina, The Artist
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Zophres was previously nominated in 2010 for “True Grit” and in 2016 for “La La Land.” Carter was nominated in 1992 for “Malcolm X” and in 1997 for “Amistad.” Byrne was nominated in 1996 for “Hamlet,” in 1998 for “Elizabeth,” in 2004 for “Finding Neverland,” and in 2007 for “Elizabeth: The Golden Age,” her only win. This is the third time that Powell has earned two nominations in a single year, first in 1998 when she won for “Shakespeare in Love” in addition to a bid for “Velvet Goldmine,” and then in 2015 when she contended for “Carol” and “Cinderella.” She won for “The Aviator” in 2004 and “The Young Victoria” in 2009, with eight additional nominations. All but “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” contend for the Costume Designers Guild prizes for period or sci-fi/fantasy films, which will be handed out next week. Four times in the past decade, this award went to a Best Picture nominee.

Who should win: Though I didn’t like the film, I can appreciate the top-notch costuming in all the vignettes of “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.” The wardrobe in “Mary Queen of Scots” is one of its strongest and most vibrant elements. “Mary Poppins Returns” owes much of its magic to the way that its characters are outfitted. It’s a hard pick between “The Favourite” and “Black Panther,” two extraordinarily different films, and I’d be happy with either being rewarded.
Who will win: This is extremely competitive. My money is on The Favourite though it could honestly be any of them.

Oscar Nominees: Best Costume Design

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Black Panther, The Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, Mary, Queen of Scots

In this year’s unusual tendency of certain films not showing up in exactly the categories everyone thought they would, “Bohemian Rhapsody” is nowhere to be found here, along with “If Beale Street Could Talk,” a sadly more expected snub. Instead, we get The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, a decent choice here even if the film was far more uneven, and Mary, Queen of Scots, representing one of the film’s two total bids. Mary Poppins Returns did decently in the technical categories if not fantastically, and we have two very different Best Picture nominees here as well: Black Panther and The Favourite.

My current bet to win: I’m picking The Favourite over “Mary Poppins Returns.”

Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Victoria and Abdul

My choices: Coming in February!

This year’s locks: Mary Poppins Returns, The Favourite

Very likely: Mary, Queen of Scots, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody

Possible: BlacKkKlansman, Crazy Rich Asians, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star is Born, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Unlikely: Colette, A Wrinkle in Time, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, Ocean’s 8

The rundown: This category has some solid frontrunners, and all of them are among the fifteen nominees recognized in three separate races – contemporary, period, and sci-fi/fantasy – by the Costume Designers’ Guild. Even if it doesn’t get top-tier nominations, Mary Poppins Returns is a sure thing here, as is a film sure to show up in those races, The Favourite. It hasn’t consistently been honored across the board, but Mary, Queen of Scots seems like a safe bet here. Black Panther seems to be popular and even took home the Critics’ Choice prize in this category. Bohemian Rhapsody, even if it doesn’t wow Oscar voters as it has other groups, is very likely to place there, though it will face stiff competition from CDG nominees BlacKkKlansman, Crazy Rich Asians, and A Star is Born, and I imagine that two films that weren’t honored by that guild, If Beale Street Could Talk and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, the sequel to the 2016 victor in this category, will also siphon votes. There are seven other films that earned CDG bids, though they’re not strong contenders. I can’t understand why Colette isn’t part of the awards conversation for its gorgeous costumes, and I’d hope that the very few mentions from throughout awards season will magically translate to an Oscar bid. This category often rewards films that aren’t recognized in any other race, so we’ll see if anything very surprising shows up.

One possible crazy scenario: It’s not so absurd, but black-and-white foreign films Roma and Cold War might earn enough votes for their non-color costumes, something that used to be recognized regularly in a separate field through 1966.

Forecasted winner: I see this going to Mary Poppins Returns, but it’s sure to be a competitive category.

AFT Awards: Best Costume Design

This is the ninth category of the 11th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Runners-up:
A United Kingdom, Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, The Greatest Showman, The Shape of Water, Their Finest, Victoria and Abdul, Wonder Wheel, Wonderstruck

The winner:
Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran) had the tough job of adapting an animated classic into something live-action, and the way its characters, human and decorative, were outfitted was its strongest and most eye-popping asset.

Other nominees:
Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)
Battle of the Sexes (Mary Zophres)
The Zookeeper’s Wife (Bina Daigeler)
I, Tonya (Jennifer Johnson)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Costume Design

The competition: Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran), Darkest Hour (Jacqueline Durran), Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges), The Shape of Water (Luis Sequeira), Victoria and Abdul (Consolata Boyle)

Previous winners: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Great Gatsby, Anna Karenina, The Artist, Alice in Wonderland
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!

The facts: Double nominee Durran has been nominated four times before, winning in 2012 for “Anna Karenina.” Bridges has been nominated twice, winning for “The Artist” in 2011. Boyle has been nominated twice, including last year for “Florence Foster Jenkins.” This is the first nomination for Sequeira. “Darkest Hour” and “Victoria and Abdul” were not nominated for the Costume Designers Guild Awards, where “The Shape of Water” surprisingly defeated “Phantom Thread” and “Beauty and the Beast” lost to a film not recognized here, “Wonder Woman.” All but “Victoria and Abdul” competed at BAFTA, where “Phantom Thread” prevailed. Eight times in the past decade, this award went to a Best Picture nominee.

Who should win: “Victoria and Abdul” is the least impressive of this list, outfitting Brits and Indians in period garb. “Darkest Hour” does the same for its British government officials, while “The Shape of Water” also clothes its period characters in exceptional outfits. “Beauty and the Beast” is all about gorgeous costumes, and therefore would probably be my vote over the very relevant and central dresses and suits featured and created in “Phantom Thread.”

Who will win: Unless “The Shape of Water” sweeps the technical categories, this is a battle between Beauty and the Beast and “Phantom Thread.” Though the latter is probably the favorite, I think history favors female-centric period pieces, which will lead to the animation adaptation winning. But the surprise CDG win suggests anything is possible.

Oscar Nominees: Best Costume Design

My predictions: 3/5, picking “The Greatest Showman” and “The Post” over “Darkest Hour” and “Victoria and Abdul”
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Victoria and Abdul

So this is one of the two places “Victoria and Abdul” showed up, bouncing “The Greatest Showman,” which had to settle for a long song nomination. I haven’t seen “Beauty of the Beast” but plan to, and I’m not at all surprised it’s here. “Darkest Hour” and “The Shape of Water” are both great choices, as is “Phantom Thread.”

My current bet to win: Simply because of its subject matter, will it be Phantom Thread?