Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

It wasn’t too smart to assume that both Hugh Jackman (The Son) and Bill Nighy (Living) would be left out, those it’s worth noting that neither film scored any other nominations. An expected surge of enthusiasm didn’t help Cruise’s film, which scored two mentions, and all the independent energy around Mescal’s also didn’t materialize into anything with this awards body. And I’m sad about the underperformance of my top film of the year, but at least Brendan Fraser (The Whale) did get in here. Another bright spot is Jeremy Pope (The Inspection), also representing his film all on his own. The fifth nominee, Austin Butler (Elvis), saw his film do much better, and he may be the frontrunner now as the only one whose film has any degree of other support with this awards body.

Who will win? At this point, I’m picking Butler, though I’d of course love for it to be Fraser.

Golden Globe Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Mahershala Ali (Swan Song)
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

This category doesn’t feel all that loaded, which suggests that there could be some true surprises who show up. At the head of the pack are Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Austin Butler (Elvis), two actors whose films may earn other nominations but also may not. Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) has a much better Golden Globes history than he does with Oscar, winning three of his seven bids. While some prognosticators believe that Bill Nighy (Living) and Hugh Jackman (The Son) will grab the last two slots, I feel like the former is too under-the-radar and the latter is in a film that no one seems to like (I didn’t hate it but also was not impressed by either the film or Jackman’s performance). I’m also not sure that last year’s winner, Will Smith (Emancipation), can return following what happened at the Oscars, but if voters had the chance to see the film, he might just make it. Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans) and Harry Styles (Don’t Worry Darling) are possibilities, but I think two other independent film darlings are likelier: Jeremy Pope (The Inspection) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun).

Current predictions:
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition:
Mahershala Ali (Swan Song) plays devoted husband Cameron Turner. He won in 2018 for “Green Book” and was nominated in 2016 for “Moonlight.” He is the lone representative of his film.

Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) plays actor Desi Arnaz. He has four previous nominations, with one win in 2007 for “No Country for Old Men.” His costar Nicole Kidman is also nominated, as is his film’s screenplay.

Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) plays rancher Phil Burbank. He has three previous nominations, for “The Imitation Game” and TV projects “Patrick Melrose” and “Sherlock.” His film contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama and is tied for the nominations leader with seven total bids.

Will Smith (King Richard) plays devoted father Richard Williams. He has five previous nominations, three for film roles in “Concussion,” “The Pursuit of Happyness,” and “Ali,” and two for “The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air.” His costar Aunjanue Ellis is also nominated, along with a song from the film, which contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) plays the doomed Lord Macbeth. He has nine previous nominations, eight of which were in this category, resulting in two wins, for “Glory” and “The Hurricane.” He was also the recipient of the Cecil B. DeMille Award in 2015. He is the lone representative from his film.

Additional notes: Cumberbatch, Smith, and Washington were all cited by the Critics Choice Association in their nominations list. The winner of this prize has gone on to win the Oscar every year all but four times in the past twenty years, most recently last year when Anthony Hopkins defeated the late Chadwick Boseman.
Who should win? These performances are all very good. Cumberbatch is my clear favorite.
Who will win? It’s possible that it could be Cumberbatch based on the strength of his film, but I think Smith takes it.

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Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition:

Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) plays drummer Ruben Stone. He was nominated previously in 2016 for his TV role in “The Night Of.” He is the lone representative of his film.

Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) plays musician Levee Green. This is his first Golden Globe nomination, received posthumously after his death from cancer this past August. His costar Viola Davis is also nominated.

Anthony Hopkins (The Father) plays the dementia-stricken Anthony. The Oscar winner has never actually won a competitive Globe despite seven previous bids, including last year for “The Two Popes,” and was honored with the Cecil B. DeMille Award fifteen years ago. His film contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama and two other awards.

Gary Oldman (Mank) plays screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz. He won this prize three years ago for “Darkest Hour.” His film is the nominations leader.

Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian) plays detainee Mohamedou Ould Salahi. This is Rahim’s first Globe nomination, and he is joined by costar Jodie Foster.

Additional notes: All but Rahim are also received notes from SAG and the Critics Choice Association for these performances. The winner of this prize has gone on to win the Oscar every year since 2012.
Who should win? These are all very strong performances and any of them would deserve this win. I would choose Boseman, Ahmed, or Oldman.
Who will win? It could be Hopkins since his film obviously has support, but I think it’s likelier to be Ahmed or Boseman.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

My predictions: 4/5
Who’s missing? Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Steven Yeun (Minari)

I made a bold prediction by saying that “Da 5 Bloods” wouldn’t show up in the top categories, but I definitely expected Lindo to be here. Instead, we get Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian), a fine but entirely surprising choice for a film that’s coming out next week. Gary Oldman (Mank) managed to hold on despite the possibility of him being snubbed, and his film is even the nominations leader! The other three were very much expected, with Anthony Hopkins (The Father) getting a boost from his film’s Best Motion Picture – Drama and screenplay bids. The late Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) is in good company with his costar Viola Davis nominated, and Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) is all on his own, which is a bit surprising given that his film seems to have been gaining momentum recently.

Who will win? I’d give the edge to Hopkins over Ahmed based on nominations performance, but who knows?

Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced shortly, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that, especially this year, it’s hard to know which films and performances will end up being honored.

Last year’s nominees:
Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

The surest things in this category are the late Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and a supporting nominee from last, Anthony Hopkins (The Father). Even if his film doesn’t show up in a big way, expect Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) to be here. After that, things get a bit more uncertain. In theory, Gary Oldman (Mank) should be a shoo-in, but he’s been absent from many precursor lists that have included his film in other categories and could go the way of Robert DeNiro last year for “The Irishman.” Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) and Steven Yeun (Minari) are strong possibilities who will surely garner votes, and the same goes for Tom Hanks (News of the World) and Jude Law (The Nest). John David Washington (Malcolm and Marie) is a late-breaking contender who may or may not place depending on if voters have seen the film, and he could face competition from performers in films from earlier in 2020 like Ben Affleck (The Way Back), Jesse Plemons (I’m Thinking of Ending Things), or John Magaro (First Cow).

Current predictions:
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods)
Gary Oldman (Mank)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition:
Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari) plays cantankerous race car driver Ken Miles. He has won two Globes, for last year’s “Vice” and for “The Fighter” in 2010. He was also nominated for “American Hustle” and “The Big Short.” He is the lone representative of his film.

Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) plays faded film director Salvador Mallo. He has two previous film nominations, for “Evita” and “The Mask of Zorro,” and two TV bids. His film is nominated for Best Foreign Film.

Adam Driver (Marriage Story) plays theater director Charlie Barber. He was nominated last year for “BlacKkKlansman.” His film is the nominations leader and contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) plays clown Arthur Fleck. He won a Globe in 2005 for “Walk the Line,” and has also been nominated for “Gladiator,” “The Master,” “Her,” and “Inherent Vice.” His film contends for several awards, including Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) plays Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who travels to Vatican City from Argentina. Pryce has one previous Globe nomination, for the 1993 TV movie “Barbarians at the Gate.” His film contends for several awards, including Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Additional notes: Bale, Driver, and Phoenix are also nominated for SAG Awards this year. The winner of this award has gone on to win the Oscar all but twice in the past fifteen years.
Who should win? Bale was a great fit for the role and did well, and the same goes for Banderas. Phoenix was incredible to be sure, and Driver was great too, though I’d really love to see Pryce, a hard-working actor who turned in a wonderful performance, take this. Luckily, there’s not a bad choice to be found here.
Who will win? It’s possible Driver could upset, but I think that Phoenix holds a firm enough lead.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Robert De Niro (The Irishman), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)

I made a mistake swapping Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), who ended up earning his film’s only nomination, out for Adam Sandler at the last minute, whose film’s category switch to drama from comedy didn’t pay off, earning the film no nominations at all. I’m glad to see Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) here after he missed out on bids from other awards groups, and his film actually ended up doing very well. Despite his film earning five bids, Robert De Niro didn’t make the cut, and the other three nominees were as expected: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), whose film contends for Best Foreign Film, Adam Driver (Marriage Story), whose film did pretty well, and Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), whose film did much better than I expected. This is a solid list to be sure.

Who will win? I think Phoenix takes this easily.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced shortly, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

It looks like there are just two locks in this category - Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) and Adam Driver (Marriage Story). It would be hard to imagine Robert De Niro (The Irishman) missing the cut, but it’s possible voters won’t love the film (though I really doubt it). Next up are a handful of contenders, including Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari), and Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes). I think it’s likely that, even if he doesn’t make it all the way to Oscar, Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), a past honoree in other categories, will be nominated here. Adam Driver (The Report) could find himself with a double nomination, and Mark Ruffalo (Dark Waters) is also a possibility. Other late-breaking contenders with buzz include Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) and George MacKay (1917). I’d love to see Noah Jupe (Honey Boy), but I don’t think he can muster enough support to show up in this category.

Current predictions:
Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition:
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) plays alcoholic country star Jackson Maine. Cooper’s film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama, and he is a double nominee, also cited for his direction. He was previously nominated for “American Hustle” and “Silver Linings Playbook.”

Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate) plays painter Vincent Van Gogh. He was nominated last year for “The Florida Project” and in 2000 for “Shadow of the Vampire.” He is the lone representation of his film.

Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased) plays Jared Eamons, an Arkansas teenager sent to gay conversion therapy by his religious patients. His film contends for Best Original Song. This is his first Globe nomination.

Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) plays legendary rocker Freddie Mercury. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama. He was nominated in 2016 and 2017 for his starring role in the television series “Mr. Robot.”

John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) plays Officer Ron Stallworth, who goes undercover to join the KKK. His film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama. This is his first nomination, taking over for his father, Denzel, who was honored in this category the past two years.

Additional notes: Cooper, Malek, and Washington are also nominated both individually and as part of their ensembles at the SAG Awards. The winner of this award has gone on to win the Oscar all but three times in the past fifteen years.
Who should win? I like all of these performers. Dafoe was strong even when his film dragged. Hedges, in one of multiple performances this year, felt especially authentic. Washington got into the style of his film and served as its driving energy. Cooper was serious and captivating. Malek gets my vote for his completely consumed musical deep dive.
Who will win? Many are backing Cooper, whose film is expected to win Best Motion Picture – Drama, but I think that Malek is the one who will prevail.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

My predictions: 3/5, missing Dafoe and Washington
Who’s missing? Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), Ryan Gosling (First Man), Clint Eastwood (The Mule), Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther)

I misheard this category for a second and was shocked to discover that Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) had been snubbed, but of course he wasn’t, and he even got a show of support for his film that critics definitely didn’t deliver. The big snub here is for Hawke, which I’m fine with because I didn’t like the film, but I am annoyed that I only put him in yesterday in favor of someone who did make the cut, John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman), and whose film did very well. I suspect Hawke will still replace him come Oscar time. Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased) is another selection who might not make it to Oscar, but it’s good that the hard-working actor got in for one of his several films this year. Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate) got in with no other support for his film, joining Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), who also netted himself a nomination for Best Director.

Who will win? I have a feeling that Malek is far out ahead unless Cooper gets pulled along with his film.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Tom Hanks (The Post)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

The two frontrunners in this race were actually expected to compete in the comedy/musical race instead, but their placement here shouldn’t hurt their chances at all. Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) is sure to have his film, which he directed, nominated in many categories, while Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) may be representing his all alone. Early buzz for Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) was strong, so he could easily be recognized, and he’s been collecting precursor nominations. Though Clint Eastwood (The Mule) has twice been nominated for an acting Oscar, he’s never received a Globe bid in this category, so don’t expect him to show up even if he makes the cut come Oscar time. Conversely, even if he doesn’t make it all the way to the Oscars, Ryan Gosling (First Man) is a relatively safe bet here. John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) could figure into this race, as could Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy), Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner), and Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate) if their films are enthusiastically received by Globe voters. Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther) has an outside shot if voters really love his film.

Current predictions:
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Ryan Gosling (First Man)
Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition: Timothee Chalamet’s vacationing teenager (Call Me By Your Name), Daniel Day-Lewis’ dressmaker (Phantom Thread), Tom Hanks’ bold editor (The Post), Gary Oldman’s Winston Churchill (Darkest Hour), and Denzel Washington’s ethical lawyer (Roman J. Israel, Esq.).

For your information: This is the ninth career nomination for Hanks, who has won four trophies, three of which were for this category. This is also the ninth nomination for Washington, a nominee last year who has won twice and received the Cecil B. DeMille Award two years ago. This is the eighth nomination for Day-Lewis, who has two previous wins. Despite earning an Oscar nomination in 2011, this is Oldman’s first nomination here, as well as Chalamet’s. Only Chalamet and Hanks have their films nominated for the top prize.

Who should win? I have yet to see Day-Lewis’ performance but for now would vote firmly for Oldman.

Who will win? Even though his film isn’t nominated in any other category, I think that Oldman will still blow the competition out of the water.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

My predictions: 4/5, picking Gyllenhaal over Washington
Who’s missing? Jake Gyllenhaal

It’s funny to compare this year to last, since, this time around, Tom Hanks (The Post) wasn’t snubbed like he was for “Sully,” but Jake Gyllenhaal was for “Stronger,” a very deserving performance that I surely would have recognized over the much weaker inclusion of Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.), who might have upped his Oscar chances slightly by appearing here, at least putting him head-to-head with Gyllenhaal. Though his film didn’t manage any other major nominations, Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) made the cut, as did Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) as the lone representative of his film. Rounding out the list is Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name), whose film did pretty well despite a few category misses. I still have to see Hanks and Day-Lewis, but look forward to offering more thoughts on a category that didn’t have all that many contenders at the start.

Who will win? I think this is Oldman’s to lose even if his film didn’t earn other love.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Joel Edgerton (Loving)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

The surest thing in this race is Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), which would actually mark his first Globe nomination. Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger) seems like a pretty solid bet from a film earlier in the year even if he might not make it all the way to Oscar (though I hope he does). A nominee from last year, Andrew Garfield (Breathe), could enter the race, as could Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) for a film that’s sure to be very popular. The movie is supposed to be terrible, but last year’s nominee Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) shouldn’t be underestimated. Without knowing how good either film is, Tom Hanks (The Post) and Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) are still likely to get many votes. I’m not sure there are any other truly strong contenders, but Chadwick Boseman (Marshall), Christian Bale (Hostiles), Jeremy Renner (Wind River), John Boyega (Detroit), and Jamie Bell (Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool) could all earn some votes.

Current predictions:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
Tom Hanks (The Post)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition: Casey Affleck’s antisocial uncle (Manchester by the Sea), Joel Edgerton’s colorblind husband, Andrew Garfield’s conscientious objector (Hacksaw Ridge), Viggo Mortensen’s eccentric patriarch (Captain Fantastic), and Denzel Washington’s traditional father (Fences).

For your information: This is Washington’s eighth career nomination, with two previous wins and the Cecil B. DeMille Award last year. This is Mortensen’s third nomination and the second for Affleck and Garfield. This is the first nomination for Edgerton. “Hacksaw Ridge” and “Manchester by the Sea” are up for Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Who should win? Affleck is clearly the best, but Washington is great too.

Who will win? Unless Washington surprises, this category belongs to Affleck.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

My predictions: 4/5, picking Hanks over Mortensen
Who’s missing? Tom Hanks, Jake Gyllenhaal

I’m sad to report that Tom Hanks, who has a hard enough time getting nominated even when his Oscar chances are great, was snubbed for a truly worthy performance in a film that was wholly ignored this morning. I was shocked to hear Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic) announced as a nominee because I thought he was supposed to be in the comedy category, but he was great and it’s good to see him here. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) is here, expectedly, as is Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), whose film scored surprise bids for Best Motion Picture – Drama and Best Actor. Joel Edgerton (Loving) and Denzel Washington (Fences) made the cut, but they’re nominated only with their costars, with both films shut out in all other categories. I’m still missing a couple on this list – will have reviews shortly for as many of the ones I’ve seen as possible.

Who will win? This list doesn’t change the fact that Affleck is the frontrunner.

Golden Globe Musings: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anything important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
Will Smith (Concussion)

There are some major heavy-hitters in this race, and I think that they should do especially well here even if they don’t make it all the way to the Oscar derby. At the head of the pack are Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) and Denzel Washington (Fences). I think that beloved actor Tom Hanks (Sully) should have no trouble finding a place here, and Joel Edgerton (Loving) also has a pretty good shot. Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge) is a decent bet, and he may even net two nominations, contending for “Silence” as well. Other possibilities include Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Snowden), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals), Michael Keaton (The Founder), and Will Smith (Collateral Beauty). I’d love to see Chris Pine (Hell or High Water) recognized, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to make it happen. It would also be interesting to see Nate Parker (Birth of a Nation) make it in despite the negative press he’s received recently.

Current predictions:
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Joel Edgerton (Loving)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Tom Hanks (Sully)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition: Bryan Cranston’s communist writer (Trumbo), Leonardo DiCaprio’s determined trapper (The Revenant), Michael Fassbender’s brilliant inventor (Steve Jobs), Eddie Redmayne’s transitioning artist (The Danish Girl), and Will Smith’s persistent scientist (Concussion).

For your information: All five men here have been nominated previously for at least two Golden Globes, and Cranston, who won a TV trophy on his fifth try for “Breaking Bad,” is the only one new to this category. Redmayne won this award last year for “The Theory of Everything.” DiCaprio, who has won two Globes, one in this category in 2004 for “The Aviator,” is on his eleventh nomination. Smith earns his fifth this year, and Fassbender earns his third. Only “The Revenant” is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama. The last actor to win two trophies in a row in this category was Tom Hanks in 1993 and 1994.

Who should win? I’m firmly behind Fassbender, though I think that all of these performances are award-worthy.

Who will win? Last year, Redmayne had already pulled out front, and this year, I don’t think it’s as clear cut. He’s already won a Globe even though he has yet to take home an Oscar, but I still think that DiCaprio will be in the lead for a ferocious lead performance.

Golden Globe Nominees: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

My predictions: 3/5, picking Depp and Hanks over Cranston and Smith
Who’s missing? Johnny Depp, Tom Hanks

I didn’t even realize when the nominees were announced that Depp, who got nominated yesterday for a SAG Award, wasn’t among them. Instead, we got Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), who was recognized yesterday and whose film appears to have performed better than expected, and Will Smith (Concussion), who may or may not make it all the way to the Oscar finals. Joining them are three expected inclusions: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), the only actor in this category whose film is nominated for the top prize, Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), and Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs).

Who will win? It’s hard to say at this point, but probably DiCaprio.