Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Score

I’m offering winner predictions in all categories for the Oscars as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Original Score.

Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score

I’m offering predictions in all categories for the Oscar nominations as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Original Score.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Score

The competition: Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell), Dune (Hans Zimmer), Encanto (Germaine Franco), Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias), The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)

Previous winners: Soul, Joker, Black Panther, The Shape of Water, La La Land, The Hateful Eight, The Grand Budapest Hotel
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This is the twelfth nomination for Zimmer, who won in 1994 for “The Lion King” and was most recently nominated in 2017 for “Dunkirk.” This is the fourth nomination for Iglesias, who was previously contended for “The Constant Gardener,” “The Kite Runner,” and “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.” This is the third nomination for Britell, who was previously nominated for “Moonlight” and “If Beale Street Could Talk.” Greenwood was previously nominated for “Phantom Thread.” In the past two decades, this award has gone to a film not nominated for Best Picture only three times. At the Hollywood Music in Media Awards, “Dune” won the sci-fi/fantasy prize, “Parallel Mothers” took the international prize, and “Don’t Look Up” beat “The Power of the Dog.” Strangely, “Encanto” wasn’t even nominated for the animated prize. “Dune” won at the Golden Globes and BAFTA.
Who should win: I would choose “Dune” or “The Power of the Dog,” and wouldn’t mind “Parallel Mothers” either.
Who will win: I think Dune can win this.

Oscar Nominees: Best Original Score

My predictions: 2/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Don’t Look Up, Dune, Encanto, Parallel Mothers, The Power of the Dog

My Oscar Volley with Timothy from The Film Experience couldn’t help me get a great score in this category, where I predicted only the two frontrunners here and everywhere else: Dune and The Power of the Dog. I saw Don’t Look Up coming as an alternate but underestimated both Encanto and Parallel Mothers. I’m not mourning the omission of anything from the shortlist in a big way like I have other years, but I think I do need to spend some more time listening to these scores to figure out if those I haven’t played over and over are as good as the ones I know I like.

My current bet to win: I’m sticking with Dune here.

Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul

My choices: Coming next week!

This year’s locks: Dune, The Power of the Dog

Very likely: None

Possible: The Tragedy of Macbeth, Spencer, The French Dispatch, Being the Ricardos, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Parallel Mothers

Unlikely: No Time to Die, The Last Duel, The Green Knight, Encanto, The Harder They Fall, Candyman

The rundown: For the fourth year in a row, the contenders in this category have been winnowed down to just fifteen finalists. I’m pleased to direct you to my Oscar volley with Timothy from The Film Experience – check out that piece to read all my thoughts (and his).

Forecasted winner: I think Dune wins this.

AFT Awards: Best Original Score

This is the eleventh category of the 14th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. I’ve embedded a sample track from each finalist and nominee for your listening pleasure. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Finalists:
Weathering with You
Soul
News of the World
Mank
Minari

The winner:
Nomadland (Ludovico Einaudi) may not have had original music composed specifically for the film, but it was beautiful, haunting, and perfectly suited.

Other nominees:
Wendy (Dan Romer and Benh Zeitlin)
Tenet (Ludwig Göransson)
Ammonite (Dustin O'Halloran and Volker Bertelmann) 

Summerland (Volker Bertelmann)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Score

The competition: Da 5 Bloods (Terence Blanchard), Mank (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross), Minari (Emile Mosseri), News of the World (James Newton Howard), and Soul (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste)

Previous winners: Joker, Black Panther, The Shape of Water, La La Land, The Hateful Eight, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Gravity
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Blanchard was nominated for his last collaboration with Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman,” in 2018. Double nominees Reznor and Ross won this prize in 2010 for another David Fincher film, “The Social Network.” Howard has eight previous nominations, two of which are for songs. His most recent bids were in 2008 for “Defiance,” 2007 for “Michael Clayton,” and 2004 for “The Village.” This is the first nomination for Mosseri and Batiste. The most recent double nomination in this category was in 2014, when Alexandre Desplat beat himself. That doesn’t tend to happen, as John Williams, who achieved two score bids in one year eight times and won on only one of those occasions. The last animated film to win this prize was “Up” in 2009, the first time that happened since the 1990s domination of classics like “The Lion King” and “Beauty and the Beast.” In the past two decades, this award has gone to a film not nominated for Best Picture only twice. At the Hollywood Music in Media Awards, “News of the World” beat “Da 5 Bloods” and “Mank,” while both “Minari” and “Soul” each claimed separate prizes. “Soul” won at the Golden Globes and BAFTA.

 
Who should win: I would have said “Tenet,” but of course that isn’t nominated. I think I’d choose “News of the World,” but they’re all good choices and I don’t have a strong preference.
Who will win: This looks like it’s all set to go to Soul.

Oscar Nominees: Best Original Score

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul

I’m listening to the score from “Tenet” as I write this, and I still can’t understand how it didn’t make the cut. I suppose that, like with Minari, I don’t remember actively listening to the score while I was watching it, but I’ve grown very fond of it since then. It’s surprising that Da 5 Bloods did get in, marking its only nomination after a tremendously lackluster awards season performance. News of the World showed up here too, adding to its mediocre showing, while frontrunners Soul and Mank, both composed by the same people (Jon Batiste also worked on the former), got in as expected. It’s a good list to be sure, omissions aside, and I’ll continue to listen to these scores as background music whenever I’m writing.

My current bet to win: This should go to Soul without much competition.

Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Joker, Little Marriage, Marriage Story, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

My choices: Coming next week!

This year’s locks: Soul, Tenet

Very likely: Mank

Possible: News of the World, The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari, Da 5 Bloods

Unlikely: Ammonite, Mulan, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead,

The rundown: For the third year in a row, the contenders in this category have been winnowed down to just fifteen finalists. I’ve been listening to these scores nonstop for the past few weeks. For the third year in a row, all five Globe nominees are eligible, though the list hasn’t matched up since 1962 (when there were two separate Oscar categories), and the winner from two years ago, “First Man,” wasn’t even nominated. I think Soul is a sure thing, and I’d also bet on Tenet. In fact, I’m predicting the rest of the Globe lineup too: Mank, News of the World, and The Midnight Sky. Minari was cited by both BAFTA and the Critics Choice Awards, so it could bump one of those, as could The Trial of the Chicago 7. Da 5 Bloods seems distinctly possible, but it’s hard to know how that film will perform across the board. Ammonite would be wonderful choice but I don’t think there’s enough buzz. It’s possible that Mulan, The Invisible Man, The Little Things, or Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey could surprise, but I doubt it, and I think that subtitles may be too much of a barrier for The Life Ahead or Blizzard of Souls to break through.

Forecasted winner: I think Soul continues its winning streak.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Score

The competition: Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir), Little Women (Alexandre Desplat), Marriage Story (Randy Newman), 1917 (Thomas Newman), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (John Williams)

Previous winners: Black Panther, The Shape of Water, La La Land, The Hateful Eight, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Gravity, Life of Pi
My winner: I Lost My Body
The facts: This is the forty-seventh score nomination for Williams, whose last win was back in 1993 for “Schindler’s List.” This is the eleventh nomination for Desplat, who triumphed in 2017 for “The Shape of Water” and in 2014 for “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” This is the ninth score nomination for Randy Newman, who has won twice in the song category and is also nominated this year for a “Toy Story 4” song. Thomas Newman has thirteen previous nominations, the most recent of which was for “Passengers” in 2016, and has yet to win. The last time the Newman cousins were nominated together was in 1995. This is the first nomination for Guðnadóttir, who becomes only the seventh female composer nominated in the score categories. The last woman to win this category was Anne Dudley, who triumphed in 1997 for “The Full Monty.” In the past two decades, this award has gone to a film not nominated for Best Picture only four times. Guðnadóttir has won the Globe, the Critics’ Choice Award, and the BAFTA.

Who should win: During my initial viewing experiences, I remember “1917” and “Little Women” presenting strong music. More recently, listening to “Joker” has made me appreciate that one to the point that it would be my top choice from this list.
Who will win: Barring a surprise, I think this goes to Joker.

AFT Awards: Best Original Score

This is the eleventh category of the 13th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. I’ve embedded a sample track from each finalist and nominee for your listening pleasure. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Runners-up: The Irishman, Judy and Punch, The Last Black Man in San Francisco, The Unorthodox

Finalists:

The winner:

Other nominees:

Oscar Nominees: Best Original Score

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Come back later this week!
The nominees: Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

I’ve spent the past few weeks listening to tracks from the fifteen shortlisted films while in the car, and I got attached to a few of the scores in the process. I was hoping that “Ford v Ferrari” would show up here, and even got enticed by the very unlikely possibility that “Pain and Glory” could place. Instead, we got four of the Globe nominees, with only “Motherless Brooklyn,” my least favorite left off. I’m not convinced that Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker needed to be here, but it’s hardly a surprise. Globe winner Joker is here, along with Little Women. Like at the Globes, cousins Randy and Thomas Newman are nominated for Marriage Story and 1917, respectively, facing off for the first time since 2007.

My current bet to win: This will definitely go to Joker.

Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, If Beale Street Could Talk, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns

My choices: Coming next week!

This year’s locks: Joker

Very likely: Little Women, 1917

Possible: Ford v Ferrari, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Marriage Story, Jojo Rabbit, Motherless Brooklyn, Avengers: Endgame, Pain and Glory

Unlikely: The Farewell, Us, Bombshell, The King, Frozen II

The rundown: For the second year in a row, the contenders in this category have been winnowed down to just fifteen finalists. I’ve been listening to these scores nonstop for the past few weeks, and what I’ve done below is to include one highlighted track from each prospective nominee along with my commentary, ranked in alphabetical order. For the second year in a row, all five Globe nominees are eligible, though the list hasn’t matched up since 1962 (when there were two separate Oscar categories), and last year’s winner, “First Man,” wasn’t even nominated. That shouldn’t happen this year, as Joker is a sure bet, and both Little Women and 1917 should show up too. I’m predicting that Globe nominees Marriage Story and Motherless Brooklyn both just miss, with Ford v Ferrari showing up instead and John Williams returning for the third sequel, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, even if there may not be that much original material involved. Jojo Rabbit and Avengers: Endgame seem possible, while Pain and Glory and The Farewell will surely have their fans. I don’t see Us or Bombshell making the list, while The King and Frozen II seem like extreme longshots at best. Have a listen for yourself below – this is a good crop!


Avengers: Endgame was composed by Alan Silvestri, who was nominated for his song from “The Polar Express” in 2004 and his score from “Forrest Gump” in 1994. He made the shortlist last year for “Avengers: Infinity War.” In terms of superhero movies, “Black Panther” won this award last year, but that’s about it.


Bombshell was composed by Theodore Shapiro, who would earn his first Oscar nomination this year. He earned an Emmy bid in 2012 for the TV movie “Game Change” and contends at the Annie Awards this year for “Spies in Disguise.”


The Farewell was composed by Alex Weston, who would earn his first Oscar nomination this year. This is his fifth feature film score.


Ford v Ferrari was composed by Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, who were previously nominated together for “The Hurt Locker” in 2009. Beltrami also contended in 2007 for “3:10 to Yuma.” This film’s score tied to take home the Hollywood Music in Media Award.


Frozen II was composed by Christophe Beck, who would earn his first Oscar nomination this year. He won an Emmy in 1998 for “Buffy the Vampire Slayer.” This film’s score was nominated for a Hollywood Music in Media Award and an Annie Award.


Jojo Rabbit was composed by Michael Giacchino, who won an Oscar in 2009 for “Up” and was also nominated in 2007 for “Ratatouille.” He was nominated for a BAFTA, and a Hollywood Music in Media Award for this film and for “Spider-Man: Far From Home.”


Joker was composed by Hildur Guðnadóttir, who won an Emmy earlier this year for the limited series “Chernobyl.” She won the Golden Globe, has been nominated for a BAFTA and a Critics Choice Award, and tied to take home a Hollywood Music in Media Award.


The King was composed by Nicholas Britell, a nominee in this category last year for “If Beale Street Could Talk” and three years ago for “Moonlight.” He was nominated for a Hollywood Music in Media Award for this film and won an Emmy earlier this year for the “Succession” main title theme.


Little Women was composed by Alexandre Desplat, who has been nominated ten times in the past thirteen years, winning in 2014 for “The Grand Budapest Hotel” and in 2017 for “The Shape of Water.” This score has been nominated for a Golden Globe, a BAFTA and a Critics Choice Award, a Hollywood Music in Media Award, and a handful of critics’ prizes, some of which it won.


Marriage Story was composed by Randy Newman, who has twenty previous Oscar nominations, including seven for scores, and two wins, for songs from “Monsters, Inc.” in 2001 and “Toy Story 3” in 2010. This score has been nominated for a Golden Globe, a Critics Choice Award, a Hollywood Music in Media Award, and a handful of critics’ prizes.


Motherless Brooklyn was composed by Daniel Pemberton, who would earn his first Oscar nomination this year. He was nominated for a Globe for this score, his third nomination there, and a Hollywood Music in Media Award.


1917 was composed by Thomas Newman, who has an impressive fourteen previous nominations but has yet to win. This score has been nominated for a Golden Globe, a BAFTA and a Critics Choice Award, and a handful of critics’ prizes, some of which it has won.


Pain and Glory was composed by Alberto Iglesias, who has three previous nominations, for “The Constant Gardener” in 2005, “The Kite Runner” in 2007, and “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” in 2011. Iglesias took home a prize for Best Composer at the Cannes Film Festival for this score, and has also been cited by several international and Spanish organizations, in addition to contending for a Hollywood Music in Media Award.


Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was composed by John Williams, who holds the title of most-nominated living person with fifty-one previous bids. He has five wins, most recently for “Schindler’s List” in 1993. He won for the first “Star Wars” film and was nominated for the other two original films and the first two sequels earlier this decade. This score has attracted a nomination from one critics’ group so far and from BAFTA.


Us was composed by Michael Abels, who would earn his first Oscar nomination this year. He has won a handful of critics’ prizes and a Hollywood Music in Media Award, in addition to contending for a Critics Choice Award.

Forecasted winner: I see Joker winning this.

AFT Awards: Best Original Score

This is the eleventh category of the 12th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Runners-up: American Animals, Charm City, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Mary Poppins Returns, Widows

The winner:
First Man (Justin Hurwitz) movingly and triumphantly orchestrated the determination and wonder behind going into space and landing on the moon.

Other nominees:
The Death of Stalin (Christopher Willis)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)
Black Panther (Ludwig Göransson)
Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Score

The competition: BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard), Black Panther (Ludwig Göransson), If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell), Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat), Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman)

Previous winners: The Shape of Water, La La Land, The Hateful Eight, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Gravity, Life of Pi, The Artist
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: Britell was nominated two years ago for his last collaboration with director Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight.” This is the tenth nomination for last year’s winner Desplat, who triumphed in 2017 for “The Shape of Water” and in 2014 for “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” Shaiman has three nominations from the 1990s in the now-defunct Original Musical or Comedy Score category for “The American President,” “The First Wives Club,” and “Patch Adams.” He also contends for the song from his film this year. The Golden Globe winner, “First Man,” didn’t end up getting nominated. In the past two decades, this award has gone to a film not nominated for Best Picture only three times.
Who should win: I didn’t remember the score from “Mary Poppins Returns” so fondly, but listening to it again, I can appreciate its energy. “BlacKkKlansman” was sufficiently moody, and I’m happy to see Blanchard finally earn his first nomination. I’m all for any of the other three taking this because they were both memorable and unique in their own ways.
Who will win: Without the Globe winner in the mix, I’m not so sure, but I think it might be the only win for Black Panther.

Oscar Nominees: Best Original Score

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, If Beale Street Could Talk, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns

This category is where the saddest omission occurred – Golden Globe winner “First Man” didn’t make the cut. It’s a real shame considering how incredible it was. At least If Beale Street Could Talk did get honored, representing its lone technical bid among what should have been several worthwhile nominations it didn’t get. I’m fine with BlacKkKlansman even if it’s not my favorite score of the year, and I can appreciate the musical excitement of Mary Poppins Returns. It’s cool that Black Panther did make the cut, and I’m all for Isle of Dogs being here.

My current bet to win: With the presumed frontrunner out of the way, I think this defaults back to Mary Poppins Returns.

Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

My choices: Coming in February!

This year’s locks: First Man, Isle of Dogs

Very likely: Black Panther

Possible: Mary Poppins Returns, BlacKkKlansman, A Quiet Place, The Death of Stalin, If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Unlikely: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ready Player One, Annihilation, Avengers: Infinity War, Crazy Rich Asians

The rundown: For the first time in decades, the contenders in this category have been winnowed down to just fifteen finalists as of December 17th. I’ve been listening to these scores nonstop for the past few weeks, and what I’ve done below is to include one highlighted track from each prospective nominee along with my commentary, ranked in the order I think they’ll be nominated. A few overall thoughts: though all five Globe nominees are eligible, the last time that the entire Globe slated ended up with Oscar nominations was way back in 1962, when there were two separate Oscar categories anyway. A composer being nominated twice in the same category isn’t uncommon at all – John Williams has actually accomplished the feat ten times himself!


First Man is composed by Justin Hurwitz, who won this award two years ago for “La La Land” in addition to a trophy for Best Original Song for that same film, also directed by Damien Chazelle. He has already taken home prizes this year from the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and a number of critics’ groups.


Isle of Dogs is composed by Alexandre Desplat, who won this award last year for “The Shape of Water” and in 2014 for “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” He has seven additional previous nominations. This is his third bid for a collaboration with director Wes Anderson. He has been cited with nominations this year from the Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and BAFTA.


Black Panther is composed by Ludwig Göransson, who earned a Globe bid this year and would earn his first Oscar nomination for the immensely popular film that itself is slated to become the first comic book Best Picture nominee.


Mary Poppins Returns is composed by Marc Shaiman, who has five previous Oscar nominations, though all of them are either in the Best Original Song or now-defunct Best Original Musical or Comedy Score categories. He was nominated for this score by the Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and BAFTA.


BlacKkKlansman is composed by Terrence Blanchard, a previous Globe nominee for Spike Lee’s “25th Hour.” He has been collaborating with Lee for nearly thirty years. He is nominated for a BAFTA for this score.


A Quiet Place is composed by Marco Beltrami, who was previously nominated for his scores of “The Hurt Locker” and “3:10 to Yuma.” He was recognized by the Globes for this score, which dominates his mostly dialogue-free movie.


The Death of Stalin is composed by Christopher Willis, an Emmy nominee in 2017 for music and lyrics from “Mickey Mouse.” He won a prize from the International Film Music Critics for this score.



If Beale Street Could Talk and Vice are both composed by Nicholas Britell, a nominee in this category two years ago for “Moonlight,” also directed by Barry Jenkins. His more serious score for “If Beale Street Could Talk” has earned numerous mentions from critics’ groups, including the Critics’ Choice Awards, while his operatic comedy score for “Vice” has not been cited at all, though its surprise placement here suggests it may be a stronger contender than expected.


The Ballad of Buster Scruggs is composed by Carter Burwell, who was nominated last year for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” and in 2015 for “Carol.” He has been collaborating with the Coen Brothers since their feature film debut in 1984.


Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald is composed by James Newton Howard, who has eight previous Oscar nominations, six of which were for score and the last of which was ten years ago for “Defiance.” Though two Harry Potter movies were nominated in this category, those scores were composed by John Williams.



Ready Player One and Avengers: Infinity War were both composed by Alan Silvestri, who was nominated for his song from “The Polar Express” and his score from “Forrest Gump.”


Annihilation was composed by Geoff Barrow and Ben Salisbury, both of whom would be first-time nominees for this film that was left off the original twenty-wide list of visual effects finalists and was considered a very surprise inclusion on this finalist list.


Crazy Rich Asians was composed by Brian Tyler, a two-time Emmy nominee for “Sleepy Hollow” and “Last Call.”

Forecasted winner: I think that First Man takes this.

AFT Awards: Best Original Score

This is the eleventh category of the 11th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them. Click here to see previous years of this category.

The winner:
The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat) was a dark, strange fairy tale, and its music embodied that perfectly in audio form.

Other nominees:
Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)
Darkest Hour (Dario Marinelli)
Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Carter Burwell)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Score

The competition: Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer), Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood), The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams), Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Carter Burwell)

Previous winners: La La Land, The Hateful Eight, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Gravity, Life of Pi, The Artist, The Social Network
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!

The facts: This category contains three bigwigs and two composers who have been doing great things for the past few years. Williams has a momentous fifty previous nominations, with five wins, including for the original “Star Wars” and most recently for “Schindler’s List” in 1993. This is his fifth nomination for a “Star Wars” film, after the original trilogy and “The Force Awakens.” Zimmer has eleven nominations and one win, for “The Lion King.” Desplat has eight previous nominations and one win, for “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” This is Burwell’s second bid, after “Carol” in 2015, and Greenwood’s first, though his “There Will Be Blood” score would likely have been nominated in 2007 if it had been deemed eligible. In the past two decades, this award has gone to a film not nominated for Best Picture only three times. At the International Film Music Critics Association Awards this year, “Phantom Thread” beat “The Shape of Water” and “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” for Score of the Year. “The Shape of Water” has won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, and the Critics’ Choice Award,

Who should win: I can’t quite understand why Williams is able to be nominated for what is essentially an adapted score in “The Last Jedi,” though upon listening to it, I did find it to be quite compelling and exciting, especially since, unlike so many reboots, the music doesn’t stray too far from the classic melodies and sounds like it with enough new cues to make it a bit different. The other four truly capture and define their films’ spirits. “Dunkirk” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” all both deliberately paced and stylized for their stories. “Phantom Thread” is melodic and in keeping with its film’s slow-paced beauty. “The Shape of Water” sounds like the fairy tale that it is, and therefore that’s my pick.

Who will win: While I’m sure that “Dunkirk” and “Phantom Thread” have their fans, there seems to be enough of a consensus that The Shape of Water should take this without too much trouble.

Oscar Nominees: Best Original Score

My predictions: 3/5, picking “Darkest Hour” and “The Post” over “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I have yet to listen to all of these on loop, but I am less surprised about the omissions of the films I predicted than the inclusion of “Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” whose music I haven’t heard but which I presume is fairly similar to all the previous scores, though just different enough to be frustrating. It’s only the third nomination for the series, after the original won forty years ago and “The Force Awakens” scored a nod two years ago. The other four were all ported over from the Golden Globes list, with only “The Post” left off. These were all memorable soundtracks; more on them once I listen endlessly.

My current bet to win: I think that The Shape of Water will take this, but I have no clue.