Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

I’m offering winner predictions in all categories for the Oscars as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Supporting Actor.

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

I’m offering predictions in all categories for the Oscar nominations as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Supporting Actor.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Ciarán Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Previous winners: Daniel Kaluuya, Brad Pitt, Mahershala Ali, Sam Rockwell, Mahershala Ali, Mark Rylance, J.K. Simmons
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Only one of these men has been nominated for an Oscar before, and that’s Simmons, who won in 2014 for “Whiplash.” He’s also the only one whose film isn’t up for Best Picture. While Smit-McPhee won most critics’ prizes and the Golden Globe, Kotsur has been reliably cleaning up since then. Two actors from one film have been nominated together previously, including three times in the past four years, leading to two victories from that film.
Who should win: Kotsur
Who will win: It’s possible that Smit-McPhee could still muster voters, but Kotsur is a very popular choice and I don’t think he’s going to lose.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Ciarán Hinds, Troy Kotsur, Jesse Plemons, J.K. Simmons, Kodi Smit-McPhee

I’m disappointed to see that two actors I really liked this year in buzzy films, Mike Faist and Jamie Dornan, couldn’t make the cut. It seems that Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) benefited from voters preferring the older generation in his film, while J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) earned a mildly unexpected bid for a performance that was honestly quite entertaining. Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog) scored here after a BAFTA nod and not too much else this awards season, joining his costar and continued frontrunner Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog). I’m thrilled that Troy Kotsur (CODA) is here, and I just wish that his film would have made more of a splash in other categories since it remains my favorite of the year. And we have no Jared Leto or Ben Affleck despite precursor enthusiasm.

My current bet to win: Even with his costar now in the mix, Smit-McPhee should remain the frontrunner, unless Kotsur can muster enough support to upset.

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen, Daniel Kaluuya, Leslie Odom Jr., Paul Raci, Lakeith Stanfield

This year’s locks: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Troy Kotsur

Very likely: Ciarán Hinds

Possible: Jamie Dornan, Mike Faist, Jared Leto, Bradley Cooper, Ben Affleck, Jesse Plemons

Unlikely: J.K. Simmons, Woody Norman

The rundown: Last year, this category brought us the biggest shock with the inclusion of Stanfield, who no one considered supporting and wasn’t remotely expected. This year, that doesn’t seem as likely to happen, but it’s not clear who the frontrunners are with a few exceptions. Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) and Troy Kotsur have been consistent performers across the board. Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) missed with SAG but seems popular, and while I would have hoped that his more prominent costar Jamie Dornan (Belfast) would also get in, I’m not so sure. That leaves just one spot. Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) scored mentions from both the Golden Globes and SAG, but his film is otherwise not in the awards conversation. Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) and Jared Leto (House of Gucci) were cited by SAG, but may not get in due to the size of the role and some serious overacting, respectively. While J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), a past winner in this category, is a distinct possibility, I’m looking instead to two other late-breaking players in popular films who just scored BAFTA bids: Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog) and Mike Faist (West Side Story).

For your consideration: I would be elated if Woody Norman (C’mon C’mon) got recognized like he did from BAFTA, but most of the attention for him otherwise has been as a young actor and his film just hasn’t shown up in the way it should with awards bodies.

Forecasted winner: I don’t see anyone defeating Smit-McPhee.

AFT Awards: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

This is the third category of the 14th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. I’m drawing only from films that were either released or playing at a film festival in the 2020 calendar year. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them.. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Arliss Howard (Mank), Bill Burr (The King of Staten Island), Bill Murray (On the Rocks), Charles Dance (Mank), Jens Albinus (My Little Sister), Kim Rossi Stuart (The Best Years)

Runners-up:
Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami)
Eddie Redmayne (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

The winner:
Alan Kim (Minari) was the heart of his movie, affectionately conveying his youthful experience through curiosity, rebellion, and heartwarming interactions with his family members.

Other nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Orion Lee (First Cow)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Colman Domingo (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Previous winners: Brad Pitt, Mahershala Ali, Sam Rockwell, Mahershala Ali, Mark Rylance, J.K. Simmons, Jared Leto
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Only one of these men has been nominated for an acting Oscar before, and that’s Kaluuya, who contended in 2017 for “Get Out.” Cohen was nominated in 2006 for writing the screenplay to “Borat” and is up again this year for the script for “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.” Odom is also nominated this year for the song “Speak Now” from his film. Both Raci and Stanfield are here after missing out on many and all, respectively, precursors. All but Odom have their films nominated for Best Picture. Multiple nominees from one film happen occasionally, including last year for “The Irishman,” and the second most recent case – 2017 – resulted in a win for one of them. Kaluuya has won the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice Award. The only actor to win those three prizes and then lose this award was Eddie Murphy in 2006 for “Dreamgirls,” who ultimately lost to Alan Arkin for “Little Miss Sunshine.”
Who should win: This is a great list even if Stanfield really doesn’t belong in this category. I’d choose Kaluuya, Cohen, or Odom.
Who will win: Even with his unexpected internal competition, Kaluuya shouldn’t have any trouble winning.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking Chadwick Boseman over Stanfield
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen, Daniel Kaluuya, Leslie Odom Jr., Paul Raci, Lakeith Stanfield

I’m not usually so bothered by category fraud since it happens often and, if a performance is good, it’s great to see it honored in any race. The argument could certainly be made – and has been – that the spectacular Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) is the lead of his film. If he’s not, and he’s the supporting player, there’s no way that the other character from the film’s title, Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah) is somehow also supporting. I like Stanfield and he is good in the film, but his inclusion here doesn’t make any sense, especially given the wealth of true supporting characters even within the ensemble of “The Trial of the Chicago 7” alone. He didn’t really bump anyone out since Boseman got nominated for his more notable performance in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” though I was really hoping that Alan S. Kim would be here for “Minari.” The big get was Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), who made it through despite snubs from the Golden Globes and SAG. Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) are welcome representatives of their superb ensembles.

My current bet to win: Even with a costar in the mix, I think Kaluuya is out front.

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Tom Hanks, Anthony Hopkins, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Brad Pritt

This year’s locks: Daniel Kaluuya, Sacha Baron Cohen

Very likely: Leslie Odom Jr., Chadwick Boseman

Possible: Paul Raci, Bill Murray, Jared Leto, Bo Burnham, David Strathairn

Unlikely: Aldis Hodge, Colman Domingo, Glynn Turman, Orion Lee, Mark Rylance, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Frank Langella, Alan S. Kim

The rundown: This race isn’t so set, mainly because there are any number of contenders from a few popular films who could throw the whole thing off by claiming a few extra spots. The frontrunner is alone in his film, and that’s Golden Globe winner Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah). Next up should be Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), who should be secure even if his costars, like Mark Rylance, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, or Frank Langella also secure enough votes. Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) feels safe, and it’s feasible that his costar Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami) could join him if the movie goes over well with Oscar voters. The late Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) feels like a likely double nominee, but it’s hard to know for sure how his film will go over after a Globe shutout. Looking at the Globes and SAG, Jared Leto (The Little Things) might score the fifth slot, but that puzzling inclusion was isolated to those two groups, so it’s far from a sure thing. The best performer with critics was Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), who could benefit from a strong showing for his film, while Bill Murray (On the Rocks), a Globe pick, isn’t going to have that same project support. Positive buzz for their films could propel Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) or David Strathairn (Nomadland) to a slot, while that’s less likely to work for Colman Domingo (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). If Academy enthusiasm matches early precursor energy, Orion Lee (First Cow) could end up as a great indie pick.

For your consideration: He’s young but so fantastic, and Alan S. Kim (Minari) would be a great choice to join his costars Steven Yeun and Yuh-Jung Youn, who are looking good for nominations.

Forecasted winner: Unless someone else emerges as a rival frontrunner, Kaluuya will be the winner.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Previous winners: Mahershala Ali, Sam Rockwell, Mahershala Ali, Mark Rylance, J.K. Simmons, Jared Leto, Christoph Waltz
My winner: Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)
The facts: Every one of these men except for Pitt won an Oscar in the 1990s. Hanks triumphed in 1993 for “Philadelphia” and in 1994 for “Forrest Gump,” and has also been nominated for “Big” in 1998, “Saving Private Ryan” in 1998, and “Cast Away” in 2000. After being snubbed for headlining several Best Pictures nominees in the past decade, he’s now the lone nominee from his film. Hopkins, who won in 1991 for “The Silence of the Lambs” and was nominated again in 1993 for “The Remains of the Day,” in 1995 for “Nixon,” and in 1997 for “Amistad,” is joined by his costar and screenplay. Pacino won on his most recent try in 1992 for “Scent of a Woman” after career bids in 1972 for “The Godfather,” 1973 for “Serpico,” 1974 for “The Godfather Part III,” 1975 for “Dog Day Afternoon,” 1979 for “And Justice for All,” 1990 for “Dick Tracy,” and 1992 for “Glengarry Glen Ross.” Pesci won in 1990 for “Goodfellas” and was nominated in 1980 for “Raging Bull.” Pitt, who has won every precursors, was nominated in 1995 for “12 Monkeys,” in 2008 for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” and in 2011 for “Moneyball.” Though he’s never won an acting Oscar, he was a producer on 2013 Best Picture winner “12 Years a Slave.” Multiple nominees from one film happen occasionally, and in the most recent case – 2017 – resulted in a win for one of them.
Who should win: Pesci
Who will win: It’s going to be a category made up entirely of winners thanks to the assured victory for Pitt.

AFT Awards: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

This is the third category of the 13th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them and drawn from a pool of approximately 233 films. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Mark Ruffalo (Avengers: Endgame), Paul Rudd (Avengers: Endgame)

Runners-up:
Samuel L. Jackson (The Banker)
Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell)
Steven Ogg (The Short History of the Long Road)
Billy Crystal (Standing Up, Falling Down)
Bokeem Woodbine (Queen and Slim)

The winner:
Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco) approached his character with such precision and magnetic wonder, conveying his unique vision of the world in mesmerizing fashion.

Other nominees:
Aldis Hodge (Clemency)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
James Badge Dale (Mickey and the Bear)
Noah Jupe (Honey Boy)

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 5/5
My ballot: Come back later this week!
The nominees: Tom Hanks, Anthony Hopkins, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Brad Pitt

This was one of only two races this year in which I achieved a perfect score. For the third category in a row, SAG meant nothing and Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy) was cast aside, as were other potential contenders like Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) and Song Kang-ho (Parasite). We’re left instead with the exact Globe lineup, which is relatively respectable. Globe winner Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) seems set for a win here too, joined by four past Oscar winners who all haven’t been nominated since 2000 or earlier. Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) made the cut even without any representation elsewhere for his film, while Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes) had a bit of support from his costar and screenplay. Despite initial concern that one or both of them might not make it this far, both Al Pacino (The Irishman) and Joe Pesci (The Irishman) made the cut. Not much excitement to report since we’ve seen this list already, but it’s not a bad group at all.

My current bet to win: It looks like Pitt is set for the win.

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Mahershala Ali, Adam Driver, Sam Elliott, Richard E. Grant, Sam Rockwell

This year’s locks: Brad Pitt

Very likely: Joe Pesci, Al Pacino, Tom Hanks

Possible: Anthony Hopkins, Song Kang Ho, Willem Dafoe, Jamie Foxx

Unlikely: Tracy Letts, Shia LaBeouf, Sam Rockwell

The rundown: Like last year, this category has been probably the least exciting of all the acting races since it’s largely included the same four men and a few others filling the last slot. There’s no question that Golden Globe winner Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) will be nominated, and barring some serious backlash, Joe Pesci (The Irishman) and Al Pacino (The Irishman) should be in too. He’s been snubbed previously, but Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) seems to be set for a nomination. For the fifth slot, I think the most logical pick is Golden Globe nominee Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), while SAG nominee Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy) seems a lot less likely since his film didn’t enter the awards conversation until very late. Many seem to be predicting Song Kang Ho (Parasite) as his film’s standout, similar to Marina de Tavira from “Roma” showing up at the last minute last year, but I’m not so confident in his chances. There are two contenders who would make it three in a row this year, one of them in this category, but Critics Choice nominee Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) will have to once again possibly be the solo nominee from his film and Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell) doesn’t appear to have great prospects even if his performance is infinitely better and more sizeable than his turn in “Vice.” If the film was performing more steadily, Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari) might have a real shot, and I think it’s a stretch to expect that Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy) can finally earn an Oscar nomination for a highly praised but still small film. Or maybe we’ll get a huge surprise here?

One possible crazy scenario: He was listed on many prognosticators’ lists a while back, but could Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit) actually find himself nominated for playing a young Nazi’s boy imaginary best friend Adolf Hitler?

Forecasted winner: I’m still not entirely convinced that Pitt will win, but I’m not sure who else would at the moment.

AFT Awards: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

This is the third category of the 12th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them and drawn from a pool of approximately 200 films. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Barry Keoghan (American Animals), Fabrizio Zacharee Guido (Family), Jason Ritter (The Tale), Robert Forster (What They Had)

Runners-up:
Brian Tyree Henry (Widows)
Christopher Plummer (Boundaries)
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Steven Yeun (Burning)
Na-kel Smith (Mid90s)

The winner:
Alessandra Nivola (Disobedience) evoked a lifetime experience of living within orthodox religion to deliver a heartfelt and extremely human performance about dealing with unexpected and unavoidable events.

Other nominees:
Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite) matched the three women at the heart of his film with his genuine glee for treachery and pettiness. Rafael Casal (Blindspotting) was incredibly vulnerable in a role that outwardly projected strength, sharing his true self even when he believed himself to be a contradiction. Daniel Kaluuya (Widows) proved that he can play bad very well, terrifying those around him with his quiet penchant for cruel violence. Simon Russell Beale (The Death of Stalin) was the master operator, so delightfully in control of everything around him until his plans evolved well beyond him.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliott (A Star is Born), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Previous winners: Sam Rockwell, Mahershala Ali, Mark Rylance, J.K. Simmons, Jared Leto, Christoph Waltz, Christopher Plummer
My winner: Announcing shortly after the Oscars!
The facts: This is very simple: we have the past two winners in this category – Rockwell and Ali – earning their second nominations, and the other three are all first-time nominees. Both of their previous wins came from roles in Best Picture nominees (in Ali’s case, a winner), and that’s the case again. The last actor to win this award twice was Christoph Waltz, who was awarded in both 2009 and 2012. Grant is the only one whose film isn’t nominated for Best Picture, though that hasn’t been a problem for four of the past fifteen champs in this category. Ali has won the Globe, SAG, and Critics’ Choice Award.

Who should win: Rockwell was entertaining as George W. Bush, but his role doesn’t compare to last year’s, which also didn’t enthrall me as much as it did most people. I also like Driver but wasn’t wowed by this particular performance. Elliott is a superb actor, and his small part in a film dominated by other actors was indeed great. Grant was engaging and charming, and I’d be happy to see him win, even if my top choice is the very talented and endearing Ali.
Who will win: Rockwell’s repeat nomination is his reward. Driver’s film might outperform in other races, but not here. Elliott would have needed a much stronger awards season showing for his film, which it weirdly has not gotten. There’s still a chance that Grant could pull ahead and score this win, but Ali feels far enough ahead, and he’s a great, controversy-free way to award a movie that people obviously love.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Mahershala Ali’s renowned musician (Green Book), Timothée Chalamet’s troubled addict (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver’s undercover detective (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliott’s dedicated manager (A Star is Born), and Richard E. Grant’s conspiring author (Can You Ever Forgive Me?).

For your information: Ali won two SAG Awards in 2016, as part of the cast of “Hidden Figures” and individually for “Moonlight,” which also netted him another ensemble bid. He also contended as part of the ensemble of the 2008 film “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and the TV series “House of Cards” in 2014 and 2015. Chalamet was nominated last year for “Call Me By Your Name” and as part of the ensemble of “Lady Bird,” and previously in 2012 as part of the ensemble of “Homeland.” He is the only one in this category not nominated for an Oscar. Grant won as part of the ensemble of “Gosford Park” in 2001. This is the first nomination for both Driver and Grant, who are the only ones nominated this year as part of their ensembles. Ali won both the Globe and the Critics’ Choice Award. All but nine times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? I wasn’t so taken with Chalamet’s performance, and while I like Elliott, this wasn’t a huge part for him. I like Driver too, but this isn’t his best work. Grant was fun, but my vote goes to Ali.

Who will win? This should be Ali barring a surprise upset.

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Willem Dafoe, Woody Harrelson, Richard Jenkins, Christopher Plummer, Sam Rockwell

My choices: Coming in February!

This year’s locks: Mahershala Ali, Richard E. Grant

Very likely: Adam Driver, Sam Elliott

Possible: Timothée Chalamet, Michael B. Jordan, Steven Yeun, Sam Rockwell

Unlikely: Nicholas Hoult, Russell Crowe

The rundown: This category seems to be pretty sewn-up, with just one popular favorite and one critical darling threatening to break into the mold. The SAG list is looking like it will translate directly to Oscar, and all five of the men on it also earned Critics’ Choice mentions. Mahershala Ali (Green Book), the Globe winner, and Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) are the safest. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) seems to be ahead of even other elements of his film, and, despite missing Globe and BAFTA bids, Sam Elliott (A Star is Born) should be in too. There’s not much reason to doubt Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) as a contender, other than the fact that he’d be the easiest to drop given that his film won’t show up anywhere else. The fifth Globe nominee, Sam Rockwell (Vice), feels like a much more logical pick there than at Oscar, and he’d only show up if Oscar voters really loved the movie, though BAFTA voters opted to honor his small role too. I’m pulling for Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite), but only the women from that film seem to have any traction. He would have needed to do better throughout awards season, but Russell Crowe (Boy Erased) could benefit from his complicated father role that softens him considerably since his era of three consecutive nominations almost two decades ago. The two likeliest to upset and break into the list come from completely different films. Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) is very hot right now, and starring in the film that could end up winning Best Picture means that he could get some votes, as he already has with some awards groups so far. Steven Yeun (Burning), known to American audiences for his role on “The Walking Dead,” is a dark horse for his completely different turn in potential South Korean Best Foreign Film nominee, which would be a cool mention but one that would take a lot of voters choosing him to make happen.

One possible crazy scenario: It’s hardly the movie most would term Oscar-friendly, but enough precursors have chosen Hugh Grant (Paddington 2) that his inclusion wouldn't be entirely shocking.

Forecasted winner: Unless Grant or Elliott surge, Ali seems set to collect a second Oscar in just three years.

SAG Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 5/5
Who’s missing? Sam Rockwell (Vice), Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)

This category was the easiest one to predict, confirming what everyone expected about it. After his Golden Globe snub, Sam Elliott (A Star is Born) bumped Rockwell, whose film also missed out on an expected ensemble bid. The other four nominees were nominated at the Globes as well. Along with Elliott, Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) is also nominated as part of his film’s ensemble. Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) is here on his own, while Mahershala Ali (Green Book) and Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) have one costar apiece joining them. This is very likely to be the Oscar list – another contender would have needed to show up somewhere by this point. Jordan, who earned a Critics’ Choice bid, is the only one with a real shot.

Who will win? We’ll see if there’s a frontrunner by then. My guess is it will be Ali.

SAG Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Last year’s nominees: Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes), Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

It’s very possible that all five Golden Globe nominees will repeat here, but I’m not holding my breath on last year’s winner Sam Rockwell (Vice), who might be replaced by Sam Elliott (A Star is Born). Expect that Mahershala Ali (Green Book) and Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) will be here, and Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) and Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) are both likely. This could be the place that a new contender emerges, and I think that it would mostly likely be Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), if he’s placed in this category.

Current predictions:
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

AFT Awards: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

This is the third category of the 11th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them and drawn from a pool of approximately 149 films. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Alan Cumming (Battle of the Sexes), Alessandro Nivola (One Percent More Humid), Anton Yelchin (Rememory), Anton Yelchin (Thoroughbreds), Aviv Alush (The Women's Balcony), Ben Daniels (The Exception), Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour), Bill Pullman (Battle of the Sexes), Bob Odenkirk (The Post), Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying), Charles Dance (Despite the Falling Snow), Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), Christopher Rivera (The Florida Project), Cillian Murphy (Dunkirk), Clancy Brown (Stronger), Clark Duke (The Last Movie Star), Craig Robinson (Table 19), Daniel Bruhl (The Zookeeper's Wife), Dave Franco (The Disaster Artist), David Sullivan (Deidra and Laney Rob a Train), Dustin Hoffman (The Meyerowitz Stories), Dwayne Johnson (The Fate of the Furious), Elijah Wood (I Don't Feel at Home in this World Anymore), Ellar Coltrane (The Last Movie Star), Emil Belton (Land of Mine), Ewan McGregor (Beauty and the Beast), Francis Guinan (Abundant Acreage Available), François Arnaud (Permission), Fred Armisen (Band Aid), Garrett Hedlund (Mudbound), Greg Kinnear (Brigsby Bear), Ian McKellen (Beauty and the Beast), Jack Huston (The Yellow Birds), Jamie Foxx (Baby Driver), Jason Sudeikis (Colossal), Jon Bernthal (Baby Driver), Jon Hamm (Baby Driver), Justin Timberlake (Wonder Wheel), Kenneth Branagh (Dunkirk), Kevin Spacey (Rebel in the Rye), Louis Hoffman (Land of Mine), Lucas Hedges (Lady Bird), Mark Hamill (Brigsby Bear), Mark Rylance (Dunkirk), Matthew Shear (The Boy Downstairs), Max Gail (Abundant Acreage Available), Michael Stahl-David (LBJ), Nick Offerman (The Hero), Noah Jupe (Wonder), O'Shea Jackson Jr. (Ingrid Goes West), Oskar Belton (Land of Mine), Patrick Stewart (Logan), Paul Sorvino (Abe and Phil's Last Poker Game), Paul Sparks (Thoroughbreds), Richard Jenkins (LBJ), Sam Claflin (Their Finest), Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya), Stephen Dillane (Darkest Hour), Stephen Merchant (Table 19), Steve Coulter (Abundant Acreage Available), Terry Kinney (Abundant Acreage Available), Tim Blake Nelson (Deidra and Laney Rob a Train), Tim Robbins (Marjorie Prime), Tom Hardy (Dunkirk), Tony Revolori (Table 19), Tracy Letts (Lady Bird), Tyrese Gibson (The Fate of the Furious), Wyatt Russell (Table 19), Zachary Quinto (Aardvark)

Runners-up:
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Ruben Niborski (Menashe)
Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)

The winner:
Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water) was essentially the only true bad guy in a movie filled with sweet-natured people, and he managed to deliver a commanding, terrific performance without veering towards the cartoonish and over-the-top.

Other nominees:
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) was the element that worked best about his dark but comedic film, imbuing his sheriff with an amusing comic outlook on life. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) was a lovely neighbor for his film’s protagonist, valuing her happiness as his own and even investing his energy into her success no matter the consequences for him. Ray Romano (The Big Sick) turned arguably his film’s least interesting character into an entertaining and worthwhile part of it, delivering an honest and genuine turn. Bill Nighy (Their Finest) hammed up every single one of his scenes to just the right degree, earning his character’s stripes as an actor.