Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

I’m offering predictions in all categories for the Oscar nominations as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Supporting Actress.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The competition: Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Judi Dench (Belfast), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

Previous winners: Yuh-Jung Youn, Laura Dern, Regina King, Allison Janney, Viola Davis, Alicia Vikander, Patricia Arquette
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: The only woman in this race who has been nominated before. The 87-year-old actress, who is just a few months younger than the oldest-ever nominee in this category, Gloria Stuart for “Titanic,” won in 1998 for “Shakespeare in Love,” and received additional nominations for “Mrs. Brown,” “Chocolat,” “Iris,” “Mrs. Henderson Presents,” “Notes on a Scandal,” and “Philomena.” Buckley’s film is the only one not up for Best Picture. DeBose has won most of the precursors this year, and the same role won Rita Moreno this prize exactly sixty years ago.
Who should win: DeBose
Who will win: Dunst had heat for a while, but DeBose is going to win this.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Ruth Negga (Passing)

For your information: Aside from Dunst, who has a previous ensemble bid (and win) for “Hidden Figures,” the only woman in this category who isn’t a first-time nominee is Blanchett. She has nine previous individual nominations, which resulted in wins for “The Aviator” and “Blue Jasmine,” and six ensemble bids, one of which led to a win, for “The Return of the King.” Balfe is the only one whose ensemble is also nominated this year, but Blanchett is also nominated as part of the “Don’t Look Up” ensemble. Only DeBose and Dunst are in the corresponding Oscar lineup. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? I would choose DeBose or Blanchett, but Balfe and Negga are also solid picks.

Who will win? I think DeBose wins, but Dunst could also triumph here.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Jessie Buckley, Ariana DeBose, Judi Dench, Kirsten Dunst, Aunjanue Ellis

Now this upsets me more than anything. Caitriona Balfe was one of the strongest and most memorable parts of her film, and she gets ignored in favor of Judi Dench (Belfast), who has a history of nominations for very minor appearances. I am much happier to see Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), who I’ve liked for a while and who I remember being a standout in her film. The rest of the list is expected, with Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) bouncing back from a SAG snub and joining Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) and Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog). It’s just a shame that both Ruth Negga and Ann Dowd got ignored for their completely shut-out films.

My current bet to win: I’ll stick with DeBose even if Dunst seems to be gaining momentum.

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Maria Bakalova, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, Amanda Seyfried, Yuh-Jung Youn

This year’s locks: Kirsten Dunst, Caitriona Balfe, Ariana DeBose

Very likely: Aunjanue Ellis

Possible: Ruth Negga, Ann Dowd, Cate Blanchett, Marlee Matlin, Rita Moreno, Judi Dench

The rundown: I predicted this category entirely correctly last year, but I’m not quite as confident this time around. Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), and Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) seem like sure things, though you never know. Dunst’s miss with BAFTA might be cause for concern, but their rules are very different and her omission would be very shocking. Ruth Negga (Passing) scored with both the Golden Globes and SAG, but the lack of attention for her film in other categories means she could be easily left off. Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) missed out on a SAG nomination but should be okay getting in (she also scored at BAFTA, which wasn’t a guarantee). Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) got her spot, and I’d be thrilled if she managed to get in, though it’s hard to know how her film is going to do. On the note of films with likely mild receptions, Ann Dowd (Mass) will have some difficulty on that front, with bids from only the Critics Choice Association and BAFTA, while other options, like Marlee Matlin (CODA), Rita Moreno (West Side Story), who won this prize for the original film sixty years ago, and Judi Dench (Belfast), might get a boost from their films doing well in other categories. Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), a BAFTA nominee, could crash this party, but that seems unlikely, especially since her previous BAFTA bid, for “Wild Rose,” didn’t lead to any attention for that film.

For your consideration: If voters really embrace her film, Rebecca Ferguson (Dune) might earn a deserved nomination for a standout performance.

Forecasted winner: It looks like DeBose is the frontrunner, though it could also be Dunst.

SAG Nominees: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Marlee Matlin (CODA), Ann Dowd (Mass)

The big snub here is Ellis, though Amanda Seyfried bounced back from that omission last year and Regina King even managed to win without it. The beneficiary of the open slot is Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley), which makes me very happy since she was terrific in a film that hasn’t been consistently attracting attention. I had expected Ruth Negga (Passing) to miss here, but now she’s looking stronger for an Oscar nomination, even if her film hasn’t earned much attention. Caitriona Balfe (Belfast) is the only member of her cast to be nominated, and she’s also the only one in this category to have her ensemble cited. Golden Globe winner Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) is the lone representative of her film, while Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) has two of her costars nominated.

Who will win? I think DeBose can win here unless Dunst prevails.

SAG Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Last year’s nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Yuh-jung Youn (Minari), Helena Zengel (News of the World)

This category, like the others, seems to have four pretty solid bets and a more open fifth slot. Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), and Caitriona Belfast (Belfast) are at the head of the pack. The fifth spot could be for Golden Globe nominee Ruth Negga (Passing), Critics Choice picks Ann Dowd (Mass) or Rita Moreno (West Side Story), or maybe Marlee Matlin (CODA). Or will it be someone else altogether?

Current predictions:
Caitriona Belfast (Belfast)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Marlee Matlin (CODA)

AFT Awards: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

This is the fourth category of the 14th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. I’m drawing only from films that were either released or playing at a film festival in the 2020 calendar year. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them.. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Lily Collins (Mank), Maude Apatow (The King of Staten Island), Zazie Beetz (Nine Days), Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)

 
Runners-up: 

Marsha Stephanie Blake (I'm Your Woman)
Alma Noce (The Best Years)
Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite)
Gayle Rankin (The Climb)
Freya Mavor (The Keeper)

The winner:
Sarah Gadon (Black Bear) subtly crafted a marvelously compelling character who wasn’t what she seemed and then became something else entirely.

Other nominees:
Shira Haas (Asia)
Bel Powley (The King of Staten Island)
Eve Hewson (Tesla)
Aubrey Plaza (Happiest Season)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The competition: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)

Previous winners: Laura Dern, Regina King, Allison Janney, Viola Davis, Alicia Vikander, Patricia Arquette, Lupita N’yongo
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Colman won an Oscar in 2018 for “The Favourite,” famously beating Close, who lost, on her seventh try, for “The Wife.” Her first three career nominations came in this category three years in a row in 1982, 1983, and 1984 for “The World According to Garp,” “The Big Chill,” and “The Natural.” This is the first nomination for Bakalova, Seyfried, and Youn. Colman, Seyfried, and Youn all have their films nominated for Best Picture. The Golden Globe winner in this race, Jodie Foster, isn’t cited here. Bakalova won the Critics Choice Award and Youn won the SAG Award.
Who should win: Seyfried or Bakalova
Who will win: It could very well be Bakalova, but I suspect Youn will repeat her SAG victory.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Maria Bakalova’s Kazakh traveler (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close’s protective grandmother (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman’s devoted daughter (The Father), Yuh-Jung Youn’s immigrant grandmother (Minari), and Helena Zengel’s quiet orphan (News of the World).

For your information: Close won a SAG Award in 2018 for “The Wife” and in 2004 for the TV movie “The Lion in Winter.” She has seven additional nominations for her film and TV work, though interestingly has never contended as a part of any ensemble. Colman is also nominated this year for her performance in the series “The Crown” and as part of its ensemble, which took home this trophy last year. She was nominated for that role last year as well as for being part of the “Fleabag” ensemble, and also contended in 2018 for her turn in “The Favourite.” This is the first nomination for Bakalova, Youn, and Zengel. Only Youn is nominated as part of her ensemble. All but Zengel are nominated for the corresponding Oscar. Bakalova (as a lead), Close, Colman, and Zengel were all nominated for Golden Globes but lost to Rosamund Pike and Jodie Foster, respectively, while Bakalova defeated all but Zengel at the Critics Choice Awards. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? None of these performances are at the top of my list. I think I’d choose Bakalova or Youn.

Who will win? This should safely be Bakalova, but who knows.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 5/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Maria Bakalova, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, Amanda Seyfried, Yuh-Jung Youn

No surprises here, for me at least, though Golden Globe- and SAG-nominated Helena Zengel didn’t make the cut, nor did Jodie Foster, which makes her only the third non-comedy Globe acting winner not to get nominated by Oscar. Amanda Seyfried (Mank) missed at SAG and Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari) wasn’t cited by the Globes, but they both got in, as did Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), whose chances some doubted when she lost the comedy lead actress Globe race. Despite no support for her film, which earned only a makeup and hairstyling bid, and a Razzie nomination for worst performance for the same turn, Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) is here, as is Olivia Colman (The Father). This doesn’t look like my list, but, based on the likely contenders up to this point, I don’t have any issues with it.

My current bet to win: I’m betting on Bakalova, but Close could still eclipse her.

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Kathy Bates, Laura Dern, Scarlett Johansson, Florence Pugh, Margot Robbie

This year’s locks: Olivia Colman

Very likely: Glenn Close, Maria Bakalova, Amanda Seyfried

Possible: Yuh-Jung Youn, Helena Zengel, Jodie Foster, Ellen Burstyn

Unlikely: Dominique Fishback, Olivia Cooke

The rundown: This category felt more secure before Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman), a presumed shoo-in, wasn’t nominated by either the Globes or SAG. Amanda Seyfried (Mank) missed out with SAG, while Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari) scored there. Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) lost her comedy lead actress race at the Globes, which has prompted some to doubt her chances, while Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) pulled off a surprise Globe win after being cited almost nowhere else. Twelve-year-old Helena Zengel (News of the World) is one of three actresses who scored with both the Globes and SAG, joined by Olivia Colman (The Father) and Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), whose chances I’m not so sure of but wouldn’t risk predicting her being snubbed. I’m betting that Foster doesn’t make the cut, even though there’s a swell of attention on her right now. There aren’t many other possibilities here, though either Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah) or Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal) could benefit from late-breaking love for their films.

For your consideration: How amazing would it be if the underrated Bel Powley (The King of Staten Island) could score here for her turn in a comedy?

Forecasted winner: I really don’t know. Maybe it will be Close provided she gets in?

SAG Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 3/5
Who’s missing? Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman), Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)

The most surprising omission here is Seyfried, who most had thought would be a sure thing, especially given the strong performance of her film with Globe nominations yesterday. Instead, Globe lead Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) grabs one slot, while Foster was booted, making room for the wonderful inclusion of Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari), who wasn’t a sure thing at all here. I’m not sure why Burstyn missed again, and instead we have one a very young nominee, Helena Zengel (News of the World). Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) is in good company with costar Amy Adams scoring a companion nod, and Olivia Colman (The Father) is a triple nominee this year, also cited for her TV role on “The Crown” and as part of its ensemble.

Who will win? I think Bakalova wins.

SAG Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Last year’s nominees: Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Nicole Kidman (Bombshell), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

I’m making predictions for SAG, which will announce its picks on Thursday, February 4th, just after the Golden Globe nominations being unveiled on Wednesday, though I may revise them then if there are some big surprises. This category might be easy to predict but could also involve a surprise inclusion like Nicole Kidman last year or Emily Blunt or Margot Robbie in 2018. Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Olivia Colman (The Father), Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman), and Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) are the probable frontrunners. After that, Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari), Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite), and Helena Zengel (News of the World) are other strong possibilities.

Current predictions:
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
Olivia Colman (The Father)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The competition: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Florence Pugh (Little Women), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

Previous winners: Regina King, Allison Janney, Viola Davis, Alicia Vikander, Patricia Arquette, Lupita N’yongo, Anne Hathaway
My winner: Yeo-jeong Jo (Parasite)
The facts: The only past winner in this category is Bates, who won in 1990 for “Misery” and was nominated again in 1998 for “Primary Colors” and in 2002 for “About Schmidt.” Dern, who has won every precursor, was nominated in 1991 for “Rambling Rose” and in 2014 for “Wild.” This is Robbie’s second bid after “I, Tonya.” This is Johansson’s first time nominated, and she also contends in the lead race for “Marriage Story.” This is Pugh’s first nomination. Bates and Robbie are the only ones whose films aren’t up for Best Picture.
Who should win: Robbie or Johansson
Who will win: There’s no suspense left in this category with Jennifer Lopez out of the running. Dern is going to win.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Laura Dern’s divorce lawyer (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson’s free-spirited mother (Jojo Rabbit), Nicole Kidman’s embattled journalist (Bombshell), Jennifer Lopez’s high-rolling stripper (Hustlers), and Margot Robbie’s aspiring producer (Bombshell).

For your information: Dern was nominated in 2008 for “Recount” and in 2017 for “Big Little Lies,” and contends as part of the latter’s cast this year. Double nominee Johansson earns her first bids this year, for this film and for “Marriage Story.” Kidman was nominated in 2002 for “The Hours,” in 2004 for “Hemingway and Gellhorn,” in 2010 for “Rabbit Hole,” in 2015 for “Grace of Monaco,” and in 2016 for “Lion,” with three additional ensemble bids. She won in 2007 for “Big Little Lies,” for which she contends as part of the ensemble this year along with Dern. This is Robbie’s third consecutive nomination after bids for “I, Tonya” and “Mary, Queen of Scots,” and she also contends this year as part of the “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” ensemble. Johansson, Kidman, and Robbie are nominated as part of their casts. Dern won the Globe and Critics’ Choice Award. Lopez and Kidman aren’t nominated for Oscars. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar. This category has featured double nominees from one film ten times, leading to victories for one of them three times.

Who should win? I wouldn’t vote for Kidman since it’s not her best work, but I’d be fine with any of the other four.
Who will win? This might be a chance to reward Lopez since Oscar didn’t opt to include her, but I think Dern will still win.

AFT Awards: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

This is the fourth category of the 13th Annual AFT Film Awards to be announced. The AFT Awards are my own personal choices for the best in film of each year and the best in television of each season. The AFT Film Awards include the traditional Oscar categories and a number of additional specific honors. Nominees are pictured in the order I’ve ranked them and drawn from a pool of approximately 233 films. Click here to see previous years of this category.

Honorable mentions:
Alia Shawkat (Animals), Isla Fisher (The Beach Bum), Julia Fox (Uncut Gems), Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Moran Rosenblatt (Red Cow)

Runners-up:
Lily-Rose Depp (A Faithful Man)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Thomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Kate Berlant (After Class)

The winner:
Yeo-jeong Jo (Parasite) crafted a marvelously textured portrait of a naïve housewife whose readiness to accept the tall tales of others was central to her film’s emphatic nature.

Other nominees:
Sydney Sweeney (Big Time Adolescence)
Michaela Watkins (Sword of Trust)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 3/5, missing Bates and Pugh
My ballot: Come back later this week!
The nominees: Kathy Bates, Laura Dern, Scarlett Johansson, Florence Pugh, Margot Robbie

Here we have our most unfortunate snub, which is Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), who seems headed to a nod with no problem after Globe and SAG bids and now finds herself omitted for no good reason. I don’t mind seeing Globe nominee Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) here since she was good in her film, but it’s sad to me that such a great movie was ignored otherwise, especially for the superb turns from Paul Walter Hauser and Sam Rockwell. Despite missing out with both the Globes and SAG, Florence Pugh (Little Women) managed to earn a solid bid for a banner year. Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit) is now a double nominee, which must be satisfying a full fifteen years after her first Oscar-worthy role, and both of her films earned a healthy six bids, including one for expected winner Laura Dern (Marriage Story). Rounding out the list is Margot Robbie (Bombshell), recognized for the film that earned her Globe and SAG bids rather than the bigger one that netted ten nominations and a second mention in the corresponding BAFTA race for her. These actresses really all were great, even if many other women were ignored.

My current bet to win: With Lopez out of the way, there should be no stopping Dern now.

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Amy Adams, Regina King, Emma Stone, Marina de Tavira, Rachel Weisz

This year’s locks: Jennifer Lopez, Laura Dern, Margot Robbie

Possible: Scarlett Johansson, Zhao Shuzhen, Florence Pugh, Nicole Kidman, Kathy Bates, Annette Bening, Maggie Smith

Unlikely: Anna Paquin

The rundown: This category seems to have three names in common, with the other two spots wholly up for grabs. I’m not sure why anyone wouldn’t consider Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) and Margot Robbie (Bombshell) locks, and no one is debating Golden Globe winner Laura Dern (Marriage Story) as a surefire nominee. From there, things diverge considerably. Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), who is expected to also contend in the lead race for “Marriage Story,” scored mentions from SAG and Critics Choice. Annette Bening (The Report) merited a Globe nomination for a film no one is otherwise talking about, and Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) was the lone Globe honoree from a movie that, since then, has attracted some controversy which I expect will negate her chances. SAG entered Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) into the conversation, but I don’t think she’ll compete with her costars. The Critics Choice list also included Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell), who I think will break through with sentimentality, and Florence Pugh (Little Women), who has been called the MVP of a film that hasn’t resounded with a handful of awards bodies. I still think Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey) has a shot, especially because of just how much audience members were cracking up at an awards screening I attended in Los Angeles. I can’t imagine that Anna Paquin (The Irishman) will actually earn a bit for what’s essentially a silent cameo, but if voters really go nuts for the film, she may just be in.

One possible crazy scenario: Her name is announced, but Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) gets nominated for a different performance in an even more popular film.

Forecasted winner: This category is often fond of first-time nominees, which makes me think that Lopez will take it over Dern.

SAG Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5, missing Kidman
Who’s missing? Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Annette Bening (The Report), Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey), Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell), Florence Pugh (Little Women)

I was so blindsided by the inclusion of Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) that I didn’t realize that I correctly predicted the other four nominees in this category. That’s a big boost for her film, which has been underperforming with some awards bodies, and she joins costar Margot Robbie (Bombshell), who I thought was much better. Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit) missed out on a Golden Globe nomination in this race but rebounded here, joining her costar from another film, Laura Dern (Marriage Story), to become this year’s only double nominee. Rounding out the list is Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), who looks now like a sure thing for an Oscar nomination, even with no other support for her film. Kidman and Johansson are also nominated as part of their ensembles, and Robbie contends in that race for two different films.

Who will win? I think this goes to Lopez.