Interview with Abe: Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

It was a treat to be able to talk to Oscar-nominated VFX supervisor Sean Walker for Cinema Daily US about his film “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings,” which is streaming on Disney+. Watch our conversation in full below!

Movie with Abe: No Exit

Havana Rose Liu delivers a strong lead performance in the claustrophobic survival thriller “No Exit,” now streaming on Hulu. It's now playing in theaters. I reviewed the film for CinemaDailyUS.com - head over there to read my review.

Weekend Movie Recommendations with Abe

Every Friday, I'll be uploading a Minute with Abe: Weekend Movie Recommendations Edition, surveying new releases in theaters, on DVD, and on streaming services. Check it out, and subscribe to the movieswithabe channel!

New to Theaters: Cyrano
New to Theaters and VOD: Family Squares, The Desperate Hour
New to DVD: Attica, President, Potato Dreams of America, House of Gucci, France, The 355, The King’s Man
New to Prime Video: The Protégé
New to Hulu: How It Ends, No Exit

Interview with Abe: Elsie Fisher

I very much enjoyed speaking with Elsie Fisher for Cinema Daily US about her new film “Family Squares,” which opens tomorrow in theaters and on demand. Watch our conversation in full below!

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture

The competition: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, House of Gucci, King Richard

For your information: “House of Gucci” has two performers nominated, while “Belfast,” “CODA,” and “King Richard” each have one. Every nominee but “House of Gucci” is nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. Despite three individual nominations, “The Power of the Dog” didn’t get included here. “Black Panther” and “Parasite” both won this prize without any individual nominations, which could bode well for “Don’t Look Up.” The winner of this award has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar twelve times since its inception in 1995.

Who should win? I would be thrilled to see either “CODA” or “Belfast” prevail.

Who will win? It’s hard to know what the frontrunner is here. My gut is that Belfast wins, though it’s really up in the air.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Ruth Negga (Passing)

For your information: Aside from Dunst, who has a previous ensemble bid (and win) for “Hidden Figures,” the only woman in this category who isn’t a first-time nominee is Blanchett. She has nine previous individual nominations, which resulted in wins for “The Aviator” and “Blue Jasmine,” and six ensemble bids, one of which led to a win, for “The Return of the King.” Balfe is the only one whose ensemble is also nominated this year, but Blanchett is also nominated as part of the “Don’t Look Up” ensemble. Only DeBose and Dunst are in the corresponding Oscar lineup. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? I would choose DeBose or Blanchett, but Balfe and Negga are also solid picks.

Who will win? I think DeBose wins, but Dunst could also triumph here.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar), Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Jared Leto (House of Gucci), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

For your information: Though he has three past ensemble nominations and two wins – for “Shakespeare in Love” and “Argo” – this is his first individual bid. Cooper has two previous individual nominations, for “Silver Linings Playbook” and “A Star is Born.” Leto was nominated for this prize last year for “The Little Things” and won in 2013 for “Dallas Buyers Club.” This is the first nomination for both Kotsur and Smit-McPhee, who are also the only two from this category who got nominated for Oscars. Kotsur and Leto are also nominated as part of their ensembles. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? Kotsur is my clear choice but I also liked Affleck’s work.

Who will win? It’s possible that Kotsur could swing ahead here with his film nominated in the ensemble category, but I think that Smit-McPhee remains the frontrunner.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Jennifer Hudson (Respect), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)

For your information: Chastain has two previous nominations, for “Zero Dark Thirty” and “The Help.” Colman has two previous nominations for “The Crown” and was also recognized for “The Father” and “The Favourite.” Gaga was nominated for “A Star is Born.” Hudson won in 2006 for “Dreamgirls.” Kidman has nine previous nominations, with one win, for “Big Little Lies” in 2018. Only Gaga is also nominated this year as part of her ensemble. All but eight times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar, with the most recent case of that not happening being last year when Viola Davis beat eventual Oscar champ Frances McDormand. This year is interesting since Kidman beat Chastain, Colman, and Gaga at the Golden Globes, only Gaga is nominated at BAFTA, and Gaga and Hudson didn’t make the Oscar list. Expected nominee Kristen Stewart is absent from this list but in the Oscar lineup, along with Penélope Cruz.

Who should win? Chastain is my clear favorite from this list.

Who will win? I think Gaga wins here, though it could easily be Colman or Kidman too.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!), Will Smith (King Richard), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

For your information: Bardem won a SAG Award in 2007 for “No Country for Old Men” and was nominated again in 2012 for “Skyfall.” Cumberbatch has two previous nominations for “Sherlock” and was also up in 2014 for “The Imitation Game.” Garfield was nominated in 2016 for “Hacksaw Ridge.” Smith was nominated in 2006 for “The Pursuit of Happyness.” Washington has five previous nominations, and he won on his most recent try, in 2016 for “Fences.” Only Smith is also nominated as part of his ensemble. All but five times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win an Oscar. The most recent time it didn’t happen was last year, when the late Chadwick Boseman defeated eventual Oscar champ Anthony Hopkins, and before that in 2016 when Washington beat eventually Oscar champ Casey Affleck here. Smith won the Golden Globe, beating out all but Garfield, who won the corresponding comedy/musical prize.

Who should win? I would choose Garfield or Cumberbatch.

Who will win? While Cumberbatch could ultimately pull ahead in the Oscar race, Smith is very likely to win here.

Weekend Movie Recommendations with Abe

Every Friday, I'll be uploading a Minute with Abe: Weekend Movie Recommendations Edition, surveying new releases in theaters, on DVD, and on streaming services. Check it out, and subscribe to the movieswithabe channel!

New to Theaters: Strawberry Mansion
New to Theaters and Digital: Ted K
New to VOD: Here Before
New to DVD: Julia, Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn, Settlers
New to Netflix: Downfall: The Case Against Boeing
New to Hulu: Titane, The King's Man, The Shape of Water

Interview with Abe: Ted K

I had the chance to speak with star Sharlto Copley and director Tony Stone for Cinema Daily US about their new film “Ted K,” which is now playing in theaters and on digital. Watch our conversation in full below!

Movie with Abe: The Worst Person in the World

“The Worst Person in the World,” which earned Oscar nominations for Best International Feature and Best Original Screenplay, is a very worthwhile film from Joachim Trier. It's currently playing in theaters and coming soon to Hulu. I reviewed the film for CinemaDailyUS.com - head over there to read my review.

Movie with Abe: Blacklight

Liam Neeson's annual action thriller, “Blacklight,” is lackluster and feels like it's on autopilot. It's now playing in theaters. I reviewed the film for CinemaDailyUS.com - head over there to read my review.

Movie with Abe: Bigbug

Jean-Pierre Jeunet returns with “Bigbug,” a delightfully imaginative and truly frightening satire now streaming on Netflix. I reviewed the film for CinemaDailyUS.com - head over there to read my review.

Movie with Abe: I Want You Back

Jenny Slate and Charlie Day star in “I Want You Back,” which I thoroughly enjoyed. I reviewed the film for CinemaDailyUS.com - head over there to read my review.

Weekend Movie Recommendations with Abe

Every Friday, I'll be uploading a Minute with Abe: Weekend Movie Recommendations Edition, surveying new releases in theaters, on DVD, and on streaming services. Check it out, and subscribe to the movieswithabe channel!

New to Theaters: Playground, Blacklight, Here Before
New to Theaters and VOD: Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, Catch the Fair One
New to VOD: The Fabulous Filipino Brothers
New to DVD: Encanto, King Richard, Summer of Soul
New to Netflix: Bigbug
New to Amazon Prime Video: I Want You Back
New to Hulu: Gully

Oscar Nominees: Best Picture

My predictions: 8/10
My ballot: Here it is!
The nominees: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Dune, King Rihcard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story

This category didn’t offer too many surprises, with my unstable #9 and #10 picks, “tick, tick…BOOM!” and “The Tragedy of Macbeth,” which earned two and three nominations apiece, being omitted in favor of my #12 and #13 guesses, Drive My Car and Nightmare Alley, which both got four. The latter’s inclusion was the most unlikely given that it didn’t really clean up at precursors and it didn’t get a corresponding bid today for directing, writing, or editing. But it’s a very good film, so I’m happy to see it here. Of the rest, CODA and Licorice Pizza, two of my favorites, scored just three nominations each, followed by Don’t Look Up with an acceptable four and King Richard with a decent six. Belfast and West Side Story did fine, collecting seven each, which could have better for both. Dune managed ten nominations even with its director snubbed, and The Power of the Dog was expectedly the nominations leader, and remains the Best Picture frontrunner at this point. I’m happy to see four of my top ten films on this list, which isn’t always the case.

My current bet to win: It’s hard to imagine anything beating The Power of the Dog right now.

Oscar Nominees: Best Director

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

It’s hard to even process the omission of Denis Villeneuve for “Dune.” Someone was going to get left out to make room for Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), who had a great day with his film also nominated for Best Picture. Villeneuve’s film was still the second-most nominated, and this stings even more considering the lead actress of one of his previous films, Amy Adams, was snubbed for “Arrival” when Villeneuve did manage to get nominated. It’s hard to argue with the rest of the list, and I’m glad that Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) and Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) didn’t miss out, though the latter may have come close given how little love his film got overall. And then there are the two filmmakers who were nominated against each other way back in 1993: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) and Steven Spielberg (West Side Story). The former definitely has the edge, especially considering her film’s haul today, and it’s also worth noting that Campion is now the first female director nominated more than once for an Oscar.

My current bet to win: This is going to Campion.

Oscar Nominees: Best Documentary

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Ascension, Attica, Flee, Summer of Soul, Writing with Fire

And here we have it, our annual horrific snub in this category. “The Rescue” was a fantastic nonfiction film that really should have been here, but somehow, inexplicably, it’s not. I’m glad at least that Attica made the cut, and I’m particularly thrilled to see Writing with Fire, one of my favorites from the shortlist. Ascension is a mildly expected pick, as is Flee, which also got nominated in the animated and international feature races, and Summer of Soul. These wouldn’t be my top picks, but it’s definitely a decent list.

My current bet to win: With “The Rescue” out, I think Summer of Soul can win this without any trouble.

Oscar Nominees: Best Documentary Short

My predictions: 1/5
The nominees: Audible, Lead Me Home, The Queen of Basketball, Three Songs for Benazir, When We Were Bullies

Apparently watching all fifteen films on the shortlist doesn’t always help. I only predicted one of the nominees, The Queen of Basketball. I severely underestimated three Netflix entries, Three Songs for Benazir, Lead Me Home, and Audible, as well as When We Were Bullies, a retrospective documentary I probably should have seen coming. I’m hoping to have more coverage ahead of the Oscars about each of these. For now, click on the titles of the first four to watch the films!

My current bet to win: I’m betting on When We Were Bullies with “The Queen of Basketball” in second place.

Oscar Nominees: Best Live Action Short

My predictions: 2/5
The nominees: Ala Kachuu – Take and Run, The Dress, The Long Goodbye, On My Mind, Please Hold

I may not have done a great job predicting the nominees, but I did get to see all fifteen of the shortlisted films and interview all the filmmakers, so I’m excited to see these films honored now. I’m particularly happy to see Ala Kachuu – Take and Run since it was ranked dead last on GoldDerby, and it’s a great choice. I didn’t predict The Dress, On My Mind, and Please Hold, but they all make sense as nominees. The Long Goodbye was the other one I guessed correctly, which isn’t a surprise given its Oscar-nominated star. Click on the film titles to watch my conversations with the filmmakers!

My current bet to win: I’ll go with On My Mind for now with “The Long Goodbye” as runner-up.

Oscar Nominees: Best Animated Feature

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Encanto, Flee, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon

I’ve been saying all along that the animated slate from 2021 was terrific, and I would be happy with anything that got nominated. Still, it’s sad to see “Belle” left off as well as three other films that were never going to make the cut, “Poupelle of Chimney Town,” “My Sunny Maad,” and “Vivo.” Both Luca and Raya and the Last Dragon made it in, joining two of my favorites, Encanto and The Mitchells vs. the Machines. And Flee pulled off the historic feat of earning nominations here and in the international and documentary feature races.

My current bet to win: Unless “Flee” can upset, this is going to Encanto.

Oscar Nominees: Best Animated Short

My predictions: 1/5
The nominees: Affairs of the Art, Bestia, Boxballet, Robin Robin, The Windshield Wiper

I did very poorly here, picking just one of the nominees: The Windshield Wiper. I will note that both Affairs of the Art and Bestia featured very creative animation, while Boxballet and Robin Robin were clever in their approaches to storytelling. I’m hoping to have more coverage ahead of the Oscars about each of these. For now, click on the titles that are links to watch those films!

My current bet to win: It’s a tough call. Maybe Bestia?

Oscar Nominees: Best International Feature

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Drive My Car (Japan), Flee (Denmark), The Hand of God (Italy), Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan), The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

I had a feeling that Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan) would make the cut, and I’m very glad it did. I knew it would have to bump something, and I wish it had been Flee (Denmark) since that film got honored in two other categories, animated and documentary, meaning that “A Hero,” from Iran, and another film I have a feeling may have come close to getting nominated, “Plaza Catedral,” from Panama. The Hand of God (Italy) did make the cut, joined by The Worst Person in the World, which also scored a screenplay nomination. Drive My Car was today’s big winner, earning bids for its screenplay, director, and Best Picture, marking the first time a foreign film without consistent precursor support achieved that feat since “Amour” in 2012.

My current bet to win: There’s no way that Drive My Car doesn’t win this.

Oscar Nominees: Best Visual Effects

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Dune, Free Guy, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Way: No Way Home

This category has two films I haven’t seen, though I only predicted one of them: Spider-Way: No Way Home, which didn’t score in Best Picture as some had suggested it could and which I will be seeing as soon as it comes to some streaming format. Free Guy will be my next annual Redbox rental. I’m happy to see Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings here since I enjoyed it, and this is officially the third time that a James Bond film has made the cut in this category with one of the three bids this year for No Time to Die. Rounding out the category is the film that I still think is the frontrunner: Dune.

My current bet to win: It’s probably going to be Dune.

Oscar Nominees: Best Makeup and Hairstyling

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Coming 2 America, Cruella, Dune, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci

Here’s where I have one of the three total Oscar-nominated films that I haven’t seen: Coming 2 America. I’ll have to watch that soon to offer thoughts. This is the only mention for one other film, House of Gucci, which was expected to do much better overall. Cruella and The Eyes of Tammy Faye, both terrific choices, did manage to get one other nomination each, while Dune is the only film with wide representation, counting this among its ten total bids.

My current bet to win: I think this can still go to House of Gucci.

Oscar Nominees: Best Sound

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Belfast, Dune, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story

I somehow thought I had done much worse on my guesses for this category, but it turns out I was just distracted by the omission of “tick, tick…BOOM!” which I had hoped would make the cut. It’s a very solid list with some great sound, with lots of action and explosions in Dune and No Time to Die, glorious musical spectacle in No Time to Die, and an enhancement of the time and place in Belfast and The Power of the Dog. For as little as I really know about sound mixing and sound editing, I think this is a great list.

My current bet to win: I’ll bet on No Time to Die here, but “Dune” or “West Side Story” could easily win too.

Oscar Nominees: Best Original Song

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Down to Joy (Belfast), Dos Oruguitas (Encanto), Somehow You Do (Four Good Days), Be Alive (King Richard), No Time to Die (No Time to Die)

I didn’t really look at who was composing the songs I had predicted, and therefore I should have guessed that Diane Warren would return for Somehow You Do (Four Good Days), a track from an otherwise forgettable film I saw at Sundance two full years ago now. I had also bet against Van Morrison and Down to Joy (Belfast), but that made the cut. Be Alive (King Richard) is here, along with the two frontrunners: Dos Oruguitas (Encanto) and No Time to Die (No Time to Die). I still have to familiarize myself with one or two of these, which I plan to do over the next few weeks.

My current bet to win: Given that a different song from “Encanto” is topping the charts, I think No Time to Die is safely out in front.

Oscar Nominees: Best Original Score

My predictions: 2/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Don’t Look Up, Dune, Encanto, Parallel Mothers, The Power of the Dog

My Oscar Volley with Timothy from The Film Experience couldn’t help me get a great score in this category, where I predicted only the two frontrunners here and everywhere else: Dune and The Power of the Dog. I saw Don’t Look Up coming as an alternate but underestimated both Encanto and Parallel Mothers. I’m not mourning the omission of anything from the shortlist in a big way like I have other years, but I think I do need to spend some more time listening to these scores to figure out if those I haven’t played over and over are as good as the ones I know I like.

My current bet to win: I’m sticking with Dune here.

Oscar Nominees: Best Film Editing

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, The Power of the Dog, tick, tick…BOOM!

I’m sad to see “Licorice Pizza” left off here since it would have been a great choice, better in my mind that Don’t Look Up and King Richard, but at least tick, tick…BOOM! made the cut, even if this is its only nomination outside of Andrew Garfield’s best actor bid. Dune and The Power of the Dog continue their domination in nearly every category, with deserved inclusions here for very strong work.

My current bet to win: My bet is Dune, but I worry that “Don’t Look Up” could win this.

Oscar Nominees: Best Costume Design

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story

Here we have the lone bid for Cyrano, a film that could likely have performed a lot better had it actually been released. It’s not my favorite choice in this category, which would likely be Cruella, but I’m fine with it being here. It did manage to knock out “House of Gucci,” the first bad sign for a film that ended up with one measly nomination after some thought it would be a Best Picture nominee. Nightmare Alley is a great choice to join Dune and West Side Story, two other Best Picture nominees that created fresh looks for preexisting material with plenty of passionate fans.

My current bet to win: This will probably go to West Side Story, but I’d be thrilled if “Cruella” won.

Oscar Nominees: Best Production Design

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story

It was funny to hear this category announced right after Best Cinematography since the nominees are identical! I doubt that’s happened before but won’t research that now. I had bet on “Belfast” and “The French Dispatch,” a film that didn’t show up anywhere, which is a shame. These are all very solid choices, with Nightmare Alley and The Power of the Dog creating compelling period set pieces, The Tragedy of Macbeth making excellent use of its sparse surroundings, and West Side Story and Dune building vivid worlds. A great lineup.

My current bet to win: This can probably go to Nightmare Alley.

Oscar Nominees: Best Cinematography

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story

This isn’t a shock. I had thought that the great work on “Belfast” (watch my interview with Haris Zambarloukos) would translate from the American Society of Cinematographers list while Nightmare Alley would fall out in favor of West Side Story, but both of the latter films made the list. This is exceptional work all throughout this category, with Dune, The Power of the Dog, and The Tragedy of Macbeth all excellent choices. I was fortunate to see all five of these films in a theater, though I think they would work well on a smaller screen too.

My current bet to win: I think it’s going to Dune, but it could be any of these.

Oscar Nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay

My predictions: 5/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: CODA, Drive My Car, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog

No surprises here, as I had already predicted that “West Side Story” would miss. The Lost Daughter is the only film not nominated for Best Picture, but it still had a better day than expected with two acting nods instead of one. Drive My Car did make the top race and shows up here, and this is one of only three overall bids for my favorite film of the year, CODA. And then we have the two most-nominated films of the year, both featuring strong scripts, Dune and The Power of the Dog.

My current bet to win: I would be very surprised if this didn’t go to The Power of the Dog.

Oscar Nominees: Best Original Screenplay

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Worst Person in the World

I don’t know what it is about Aaron Sorkin that keeps getting him snubbed here, with previous omissions for a handful of films including “Steve Jobs” (in adapted) and now for “Being the Ricardos,” which scored three acting bids and nothing else. The Worst Person in the World, which some prognosticators thought might get higher-profile nominations, is a welcome inclusion here along with Licorice Pizza, which got only two other bids: director and picture. I’m okay with Don’t Look Up being here because it didn’t hog too many other categories, and King Richard was far from a sure thing and performed pretty well. One of the best films of the year, Belfast, rounds out the category, one that should have made room for “Mass” but sadly didn.t

My current bet to win: Maybe this is where Belfast gets rewarded?

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Jessie Buckley, Ariana DeBose, Judi Dench, Kirsten Dunst, Aunjanue Ellis

Now this upsets me more than anything. Caitriona Balfe was one of the strongest and most memorable parts of her film, and she gets ignored in favor of Judi Dench (Belfast), who has a history of nominations for very minor appearances. I am much happier to see Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), who I’ve liked for a while and who I remember being a standout in her film. The rest of the list is expected, with Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) bouncing back from a SAG snub and joining Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) and Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog). It’s just a shame that both Ruth Negga and Ann Dowd got ignored for their completely shut-out films.

My current bet to win: I’ll stick with DeBose even if Dunst seems to be gaining momentum.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Ciarán Hinds, Troy Kotsur, Jesse Plemons, J.K. Simmons, Kodi Smit-McPhee

I’m disappointed to see that two actors I really liked this year in buzzy films, Mike Faist and Jamie Dornan, couldn’t make the cut. It seems that Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) benefited from voters preferring the older generation in his film, while J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) earned a mildly unexpected bid for a performance that was honestly quite entertaining. Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog) scored here after a BAFTA nod and not too much else this awards season, joining his costar and continued frontrunner Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog). I’m thrilled that Troy Kotsur (CODA) is here, and I just wish that his film would have made more of a splash in other categories since it remains my favorite of the year. And we have no Jared Leto or Ben Affleck despite precursor enthusiasm.

My current bet to win: Even with his costar now in the mix, Smit-McPhee should remain the frontrunner, unless Kotsur can muster enough support to upset.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 3/5
My ballot: Coming soon!
The nominees: Jessica Chastain, Olivia Colman, Penélope Cruz, Nicole Kidman, Kristen Stewart

Having the nominees announced in alphabetical order can be a comforting – or distressing – thing depending on the circumstances, and in this case I was very relieved to hear Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) called first since I had expected her to get snubbed. Others were likely thrilled that Kristen Stewart (Spencer) made the cut, bouncing back from SAG and BAFTA snubs and getting in over Lady Gaga, who made both those lists. The other surprising inclusion was Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), who did get some good buzz but didn’t have much precursor support. It’s a shame that Alana Haim, whose film underperformed in a major way, couldn’t get in, while two expected and worthwhile performances, Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) and Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) round out the list. It’s interesting to point out that none of these films are up for Best Picture, and aside from Stewart, who is her film’s only nomination, each has only one or two other bids.

My current bet to win: With Gaga out of the race, I’m going to default back to Stewart, though this is going to be a very competitive category.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 5/5
My ballot: Coming soon
The nominees: Javier Bardem, Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Will Smith, Denzel Washington 

For the second year in a row, this category replicates the exact SAG list, with Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) ultimately making the cut after an unexpected citation there. What defines more than half of this race is its actors’ films underperforming, with both Bardem and Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) joined by only two other bids for their projects, and Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!) just one. Will Smith (King Richard) is in good company with five other nominations for his film, while Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) is predictably part of the most-honored work. This is a good list that makes me happy enough.

My current bet to win: Especially given his film’s decent performance today, Smith will likely still get this.

Final Oscar Predictions

It’s been an exciting awards season. I managed to see all of the major films I wanted to by the time that Golden Globe nominations were announced, missing just six films total. Since then, I’ve screened every shortlisted documentary, international feature, and short film. I’m predicting exactly two films that I haven’t seen to be nominated, and those are both Marvel movies I think will show up in the visual effects category. I feel ready and I’m hoping that it will be full of great surprises and not too many unfortunate snubs. I’ve written plenty about every category and I don’t think I have much left to say. I’m eager to see what makes the cut!

I’m not getting up at 5:18am tomorrow to watch the nominations, but it’s the first thing I’ll be doing when I get up a bit later. As soon as I am awake, you can expect detailed reactions by category as soon as I’m up and start posting. Click on category headings below for full analysis for each race, and film titles to read my reviews! Leave your thoughts and predictions in the comments!

No guts, no glory:
Joachim Trier (“The Worst Person in the World”) for Best Director
“Mass” for Best Picture
Simon Rex in Best Actor for “Red Rocket”

Final Predictions:

 
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick…BOOM!
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Best Director
Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)
Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mike Faist (West Side Story)
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Ruth Negga (Passing)

Best Original Screenplay
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Mass

Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog

Best Cinematography
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Best Production Design
Belfast
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

Best Costume Design
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

Best Film Editing
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick…BOOM!

Best Original Score
Dune
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Original Song
“Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)
“Guns Go Bang” (The Harder They Fall)
“Be Alive” (King Richard)
“No Time to Die” (No Time to Die)
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” (Respect)

Best Sound
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick…BOOM!
West Side Story

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley

Best Visual Effects
Dune
Eternals
The Matrix Resurrections
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home

Best Animated Feature
Belle
Encanto
Flee
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon

Best Documentary Short
Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis
Day of Rage
The Queen of Basketball
Sophie and the Baron
The Takeover

Best Animated Short
Namoo
Only a Child
Souvenir Souvenir
The Windshield Wiper
Us Again

Best Live Action Short
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
Distances
The Long Goodbye
When the Sun Sets
You’re Dead Helen

Best Documentary
Attica
Flee
Procession
The Rescue
Summer of Soul

Best International Feature
Drive My Car
The Hand of God
A Hero
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom 

The Worst Person in the World

Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

My choices: Here they are!

This year’s locks: The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Dune, West Side Story

Very likely: Licorice Pizza, King Richard, CODA, Don’t Look Up

Possible: tick, tick…BOOM!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Being the Ricardos, Drive My Car

Unlikely: Nightmare Alley, House of Gucci, Spider-Man: No Way Home, No Time to Die

The rundown: This is the first time since 2010 that this category will have exactly ten nominees. The most informative place to look is to the Producers Guild of America, which suggested all plausible inclusions, with Being the Ricardos as the least likely to translate. Let’s start with the sure things: The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Dune, and West Side Story. The last of those didn’t score a BAFTA Best Film nomination, but it’s a very popular musical from Steven Spielberg whose original film won this prize sixty years ago. BAFTA also added Licorice Pizza and Don’t Look Up, and King Richard and CODA should be safe too. That leaves tick, tick...BOOM! as the remaining PGA nominee, and while I do hope that it gets in, it’s been an inconsistent performer this awards season. The same goes for The Tragedy of Macbeth, which I think will snag the last spot. Drive My Car is also a distinct possibility, but a foreign film without precursor support hasn’t cracked this category since “Amour” nine years ago. Nightmare Alley might be able to show up in a big way, while SAG ensemble nominee House of Gucci is also possible. There was buzz a few weeks ago for Spider-Man: No Way Home, but its inclusion here would be a shock since PGA passed. The same goes for No Time to Die, which was all over the Oscar shortlists but doesn’t seem likely to show up here.

For your consideration : It’s been nearly invisible this awards season, but C’mon C’mon felt like exactly the kind of film voters might go for, and it would be great to see it finally honored.

Predicted nominees: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, tick, tick…BOOM!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story

Forecasted winner: It’s looking like The Power of the Dog.

Oscar Predictions: Best Director

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), David Fincher (Mank), Lee Issac Chung (Minari), Chloé Zhao (Nomadland), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

My choices: Coming soon!

This year’s locks: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Denis Villeneuve (Dune)

Very likely: Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

Possible: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Adam McKay (Vice), Guillermo Del Toro (Nightmare Alley), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)

Unlikely: Pedro Almodóvar (Parallel Mothers), Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard)

The rundown: I was ready to predict the exact Directors Guild of America lineup before that slate was announced, and now I’m not so confident since the two groups haven’t matched in twelve years. We’ve also seen a surefire nominee fall out nearly every year, like Bradley Cooper for “A Star is Born” or Aaron Sorkin for “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” and be replaced by a foreign film with lots of momentum that didn’t end up getting nominated for Best Picture – “Cold War” and “Another Round” in those cases. While Pedro Almodóvar (Parallel Mothers), Asghar Farhadi (A Hero), or Joachim Trier (The Worst Person in the World) might have seemed like possibilities earlier on in the season – and could still get votes – that slot is definitely going to Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), who also scored with BAFTA, just like both Paweł Pawlikowski and Thomas Vinterberg, whose films also didn’t appear in the top category with either group. So, that means one of the DGA-nominated directors is out. It definitely won’t be Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog). I think that Denis Villeneuve (Dune) and Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) are safe, even though they missed the BAFTA list (but showed up everywhere else). Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) does get a boost from his BAFTA nod, which he didn’t even get when his last film, “Phantom Thread,” crashed the Oscar party without many top-level precursors. That suggests to me that Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) will be the one to get left off, which makes me sad. It’s also possible that Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) will show up here, but it does give me some confidence to be reminded that both of his previous bids, for “Vice” and “The Big Short,” followed DGA bids. Guillermo Del Toro (Nightmare Alley) is an endearing member of the industry who won this prize over four years ago, and if his film shows up in a big way, he could too. Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) scored a Golden Globe nomination and was also included in the DGA’s first-time filmmaker lineup, but I don’t think her film has enough buzz. Fellow nominees Rebecca Hall (Passing) and Lin-Manuel Miranda (tick, tick...BOOM!) will surely get votes too, but either showing up at this point would be a shock. Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard) is a possibility since his film will be making it into Best Picture, but he’s collected so few prizes this season that it would be a real surprise.

For your consideration: While her film seems set for a Best Picture bid, sadly Sian Heder (CODA) doesn’t seem to be part of the conversation. She would be a wonderful addition.

Forecasted winner: This looks set to be Campion.