Final Oscar Predictions

This year, the Sundance Film Festival starts a week later, which means that my full focus tomorrow will be on the Oscar nominations. I’m more prepared than I’ve ever been, having seen every movie I’m predicting for a bid aside from one song contender and all of the shorts. That said, this has been a lackluster year in a lot of ways in terms of diversity among the nominees from each critics’ groups to each guild, and I’m hoping for some wonderful surprises when nominations are announced.

Last year, it was anybody’s guess which film would take the big award home with five legitimate contenders. This year, “Bohemian Rhapsody” shocked with a Best Motion Picture – Drama win despite being ranked dead last based on predictor consensus. The Critics’ Choice Awards, which have existed since 1995, picked their first foreign-language winner, “Roma,” which couldn’t compete in the top category at the Globes but still managed to take home the Best Director trophy. “Green Book” just won the Producers Guild of America, which, along with its victory for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical Most races seem 80% locked up, but there could be some unexpected omissions and inclusions.

Mostly, I’m hoping for love for some of the contenders that never got off the ground. “Widows” was in most people’s predictions a few months ago but now looks like it won’t get anything at all. I would be ecstatic if Elizabeth Debicki cracked the Best Supporting Actress race, and bids for supporting actor Daniel Kaluuya and director Steve McQueen would delight me, though, if anyone, BAFTA nominee Viola Davis is probably the only one with a shot. “Leave No Trace,” a film that I saw almost a full year ago at Sundance, has a slightly better shot after taking home a number of critics’ prizes, and even though she’s a lead, Thomasin McKenzie scoring a Best Supporting Actress nomination would be so great. It’s too much to hope that three of my favorite films which scored minor bids with the Film Independent Spirit Awards – “American Animals,” “Colette,” and “Thoroughbreds” – can earn surprise nominations for Best Film Editing, Best Costume Design, and Best Original Screenplay, respectively, but I would be so happy if that happened.

Last year, we had “Phantom Thread” show up with an unexpected Best Director bid (though it was one of my no guts, no glory picks) to go along with its far-from-guaranteed Best Picture nomination, and if any film does that this year, I think it will be “First Man,” which I’m predicting for the former but not the latter. I suspect there may be very few surprises, but I’m sure that won’t be the case.

I’m not getting up at 5:20am tomorrow to watch the nominations, but it’s the first thing I’ll be doing when I get up a bit later. This is the first time that I’m not seeing four or five movies on this day, so you can expect detailed reactions by category as soon as I’m up and start posting tomorrow. Click on category headings below for full analysis for each race, and film titles to read my reviews! Leave your thoughts and predictions in the comments!

No guts, no glory:
Chloe Zhao (The Rider) for Best Director
Steven Yeun (Burning) for Best Supporting Actor
Rachel McAdams (Disobedience) for Best Supporting Actress

Final Predictions:
Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Best Director
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Damien Chazelle (First Man)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (Vice)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Green Book
A Quiet Place
Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born

Best Cinematography
Black Panther
Cold War
The Favourite
First Man
Roma

Best Art Direction
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

Best Costume Design
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary, Queen of Scots

Best Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Best Original Score
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
First Man
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

Best Original Song
“All the Stars” (Black Panther)
“Revelation” (Boy Erased)
“Girl in the Movies” (Dumplin’)
“I’ll Fight” (RBG)
“Shallow” (A Star is Born)

Best Sound
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star is Born

Best Sound Editing
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
Roma

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Vice

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary Short Film
End Game
Los Comandos
’63 Boycott
Women of the Gulag
Zion

Best Animated Short Film
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
Lost and Found
One Small Step

Best Live Action Short Film
Chucotage
Detainment
Icare
May Day
Wale

Best Documentary
Free Solo
RBG
The Silence of Others
Three Identical Strangers
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Best Foreign Language Film
Burning
Capernaum
Cold War
Roma
Shoplifters