Your Guide to the Oscars

I did it this year for the first time - saw every single movie nominated for an Oscar this year. A few years ago, I didn't watch the Best Original Song nominees, which I thought couldn't be a problem, and then the song from “The Hunting Ground” was performed during the show and I felt lost. Now, I've done it, which is exciting, although I think we're actually going into what's generally a relative predictable show, with the major exception of the top race, of course. A year ago, “La La Land” was experiencing backlash that would ultimately lead to “Moonlight” winning, although only after the former film was mistakenly announced as Best Picture and the producers were halfway through their acceptance speeches. Though we shouldn't expect such theatrics this year, the mystery of which film will win the top prize is more heightened than it's been in a long time, if not ever. Read more about this in my detailed analysis of that race.

Last year, I was predicting “La La Land” to win eleven trophies (it won six). This year, my highest predicted haul is four. I'm writing these final thoughts just after watching the Independent Spirit Awards, which aren't actually a helpful precursor, but where “Lady Bird” won Best Screenplay and then lost to “Get Out” for Best Feature, a film that won Best Director also but in a field with none of the same other nominees as the Oscars. I guess I was holding out hope that “Call Me By Your Name,” my initial prediction for Best Picture way back when, could show up with a surprise win to really throw the race into turmoil, but no such luck. The Best Picture race is still a huge wild card - again, read my detailed analysis, and with it the Best Original Screenplay race remains unpredictable.

Honestly, the only other races that are up in the air are some of the technical ones, which could result in sweeps for either “Dunkirk” or “The Shape of Water,” Best Original Song, Best Documentary, and Best Foreign Film. I guess that's more than usual, even if the acting races are all sewn up.

I've tried to cover the Oscars more intensively than ever before, and it's been quite the awards season. I'm hoping that the two movies I like - “The Shape of Water” and “Lady Bird” - eclipse the two I don't - “Get Out” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - and the only saving grace is that it's going to be impossible to know how it all turns out because of the unpredictable and competitive nature of the race. Let's hope at least that the wealth is spread in a cool and affirming way. I'd love to see Willem Dafoe score as a way to honor the criminally underrepresented “The Florida Project,” and for “The Big Sick” to shock with a win over four Best Picture nominees for its superb screenplay, but I'm not counting on either of those things happening.

Below, click on category headings to read detailed predictions for each race, and film names for full reviews of each contender. My predicted winner is in bold. Comment if you agree or disagree! Enjoy the show!

Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Director
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Best Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Original Score
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


Best Original Song
“Mystery of Love” (La La Land)
“Remember Me” (Coco)
“This Is Me” (The Greatest Showman)
“Stand Up for Something” (Marshall)
“Might River” (Mudbound)

Best Sound
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder

Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Animated Feature
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

Best Documentary Short Film
Edith + Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop

Best Animated Short Film
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes

Best Live Action Short Film
Dekalb Elementary
The Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/One of Us

Best Documentary
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square

Predicted totals:
The Shape of Water - 4
Dunkirk - 3
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 2
Darkest Hour - 2
Blade Runner 2049 - 2
Get Out - 1
I, Tonya - 1
Call Me By Your Name - 1
Beauty and the Beast - 1
The Greatest Showman - 1
Coco - 1
Faces Places - 1
The Insult - 1