Final Oscar Predictions

I’m currently in Park City, Utah, having screened more than twenty films already and looking forward to as many as five per day more for the next few days. These are not, however, the movies that will be nominated for Oscars tomorrow morning, with the possible exception of “Foxtrot,” Israel’s foreign film submission, which is screening in the Spotlight section. This is the fifth time I’ve been at Sundance, and it’s always weird to me that Oscar nominations come out while so many critics are screening movie after movie.

But to the Oscars - this is a crazy year. After “Dunkirk” and “The Shape of Water” seemed to be ahead, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” picked up both the Golden Globe prize for Best Motion Picture - Drama over both and the SAG Award for Best Ensemble, for which neither were nominated, though fellow buzzy titles “Lady Bird” and “Get Out” were. Steven Spielberg’s “The Post” has been snubbed in a few important places, and “Call Me By Your Name,” which I was sure would win Best Picture when I saw it at Sundance last year, hasn’t been doing quite as well as expected. And then there’s “The Florida Project,” my favorite film of 2017 (my awards are coming soon), which missed in top categories at the Globes and altogether with PGA and DGA, but I’m counting on it to break through like “Beasts of the Southern Wild.” I️t might be foolhardy, but I’m sticking to it just like I’m staying with Michael Shannon to show up in Best Supporting Actor.

My predictions haven’t changed at all since I posted analysis of each category. I’m worried we’ll see unfortunate snubs and not great surprises, but who knows at this point? Things might not be all that crazy until Oscar night given that most predictors agree on expected lineups aggregated from precursors.

I’ll be posting reactions by category at some point tomorrow, but bear with me since I already have five movies on the calendar to see! Leave your thoughts in the comments!

No guts, no glory:
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) for Best Director
Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project) for Best Actress
“The Post” shut out

Best Picture
The Big Sick
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Director
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Sean Baker (The Florida Project)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
Victoria and Abdul

Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

Best Art Direction
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water

Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
The Greatest Showman
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water

Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water

Best Original Score
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water

Best Original Song
“Remember Me” (Coco)
“I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” (Fifty Shades Darker)
“This Is Me” (The Greatest Showman)
“Truth to Power” (An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power)
“Mighty River” (Mudbound)

Best Sound
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Get Out
Wonder Woman

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
I, Tonya

Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Animated Feature
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Best Documentary Short Film
Alone
Edith and Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
116 Cameras

Best Animated Short Film
Cradle
Dear Basketball
In a Heartbeat
Life Smartphone
Negative Space

Best Live Action Short Film
The Eleven O’Clock
Icebox
The Silent Child
Watu Wrote/All of Us
Witnesses

Best Documentary
Faces Places
An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
Jane
Last Men in Aleppo
One of Us

Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square