Final Oscar Predictions

Last year, I had seen a lot of films but was still missing a few, and this year, I feel totally confident in all the narrative, live-action films I’ve seen, and I just have to catch up on animation, documentaries, and foreign films (most of which aren’t out yet). I’m excited to see what the nominations are going to be.

Last year, the big unfortunate surprises were the omissions of Ridley Scott in Best Director, “The Good Dinosaur” in Best Animated Feature, and the mess that was Best Supporting Actor. This year, I don’t know what to expect, and I’m pulling instead for the likes of “Sully” to finally do well and for great performances like Lucas Hedges’ and Isabelle Huppert’s to be recognized. I don’t know how much of that will happen, and I’d like to think I’m being less optimistic and more realistic than usual. I’m predicting thirteen nominations for “La La Land” and gung-ho about that going over well despite some backlash. And of course I’m hoping that “Manchester by the Sea” and especially “Hell or High Water” get acknowledged across the board. I have a sneaking suspicion that Denzel Washington might be nominated for his direction, but I’m not too sure of that. Let’s hope for only good surprises.

Last year, I wasn’t on the West Coast for the first time since 2011. This year, I’ll be spending my first morning at the Sundance Film Festival. I’d like to provide hourly reactions as usual, but it will depend on what other movies – that might contend for next year’s Oscars – I’m seeing at the moment. I’ll try to offer some reaction early on at the very least. Click on category headings for full predictions in each race. Chime in below with your thoughts and predictions, and check back tomorrow for news about the nominees!

No guts, no glory predictions:
Chris Pine for Best Actor for “Hell or High Water”
“American Honey” for Best Picture
“Elle” for Best Director

Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Silence

Best Director
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Martin Scorsese (Silence)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Amy Adams (Arrival)
Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Best Cinematography
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight

Best Art Direction
Arrival
Fences
Jackie
La La Land
Lion

Best Costume Design
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hail, Caesar!
Hidden Figures
Jackie
La La Land

Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Best Original Score
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Song
“Audition” (La La Land)
“City of Stars” (La La Land)
“How Far I’ll Go” (Moana)
“Drive It Like You Stole It” (Sing Street)
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” (Trolls)

Best Sound
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sully

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hail, Caesar!

Best Visual Effects
Arrival
Captain America: Civil War
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Best Documentary Short Film
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
The Mute’s House
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

Best Animated Short Film
Happy End
The Head Vanishes
Inner Workings
Pearl
Piper

Best Live Action Short Film
Bon Voyage
La Femme et le TGV
Graffiti
Nocturne in Black
The Rifle, the Jackal, the Wolf and the Boy

Best Documentary
The Eagle Huntress
Life, Animated
OJ: Made in America
13th
Weiner

Best Foreign Language Film
It’s Only the End of the World
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann