Final Oscar Predictions

Last year, things were all out of whack, with Oscar nominations coming before the Golden Globes. This year, we’ve had the Globes already, and the SAG Awards are still to come, though they didn’t nominate two of the acting winners but they did go nuts for “The Butler.” The films that could go either way in terms of Oscar love are “All is Lost,” “Blue Jasmine,” “The Butler,” “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Inside Llewyn Davis,” “Philomena,” “Rush,” and “Saving Mr. Banks.” The only one in that bunch I’m rooting for is “Rush,” which I think will have to be satisfied with technical recognition. It would make me so happy to see both “Fruitvale Station” and “Blue is the Warmest Color” experience unexpected enthusiasm, including twin nominations for their breakout stars (though a nod in supporting for Lea Séydoux would be wonderful too).

I’m most worried about one major snub that seems all but inevitable, and that’s Tom Hanks. Last year, two surefire bets – John Hawkes and Marion Cotillard – were snubbed. Hanks is in an all but guaranteed Best Picture nominee, and his Somali costar is going to be nominated, so it doesn’t seem fair that he get left out. But given all of the actors nipping at his heels, how could he not? Keep in mind that last year was full of surprises and breakthroughs, and that an 85-year-old and a 9-year-old managed to get nominated without any requisite precursor love. I want those kind of surprises, not “Dallas Buyers Club” for Best Director or Will Forte for Best Supporting Actor.

I’m sure that we’ll have plenty of unexpected developments on Thursday morning, and I’m eager to see what they are, hoping that they’ll be positive. I’m actually headed to Salt Lake City this evening in preparation for the Sundance Film Festival, which also begins tomorrow. I won’t be getting up quite as early as nominations are happening (6:45am in Utah), but I will be writing up analysis by category a couple hours later as usual. In the afternoon, I’m planning to attend the day one press conference at Sundance, where Robert Redford will either be in a really good mood or a really bad mood. For now, here are my final predictions below, and I look forward to the nominations tomorrow with mostly excitement! Click on category headings for full predictions in each race. Chime in below with your thoughts and predictions, and check back tomorrow for plenty of reactions!

No guts, no glory predictions:
Matthew McConaughey for Best Supporting Actor for “Mud”
No Emma Thompson for Best Actress
“Before Midnight” for Best Picture

Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Director
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Spike Jonze (Her)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Robert Redford (All is Lost)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Adèle Exarchupoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
James Gandolfini (Enough Said)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyongo (12 Years a Slave)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Oprah Winfrey (The Butler)

Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Fruitvale Station
Her
Nebraska

Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Cinematography
All is Lost
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Rush
12 Years a Slave

Best Art Direction
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Inside Llewyn Davis
Rush
12 Years a Slave

Best Costume Design
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
Inside Llewyn Davis
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave

Best Film Editing
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
12 Years a Slave

Best Original Score
All is Lost
Gravity
Philomena
Rush
12 Years a Slave

Best Original Song
“Let It Go” (Frozen)
“Young and Beautiful” (The Great Gatsby)
“The Moon Song” (Her)
“Ordinary Love” (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
“You Don’t Know What It’s Like” (Short Term 12)

Best Sound Argo
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Star Trek Into Darkness

Best Sound Editing
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
Star Trek Into Darkness

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club
The Great Gatsby

Best Visual Effects
Elysium
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Star Trek Into Darkness

Best Animated Feature
Despicable Me 2
Ernest and Celestine
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises

Best Documentary Short Film
Facing Fear
Karma Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Recollections

Best Animated Short Film
Get a Horse
Hollow Land
The Missing Scarf
Mr. Hublot
Room on the Broom

Best Live Action Short Film
Diva
Do I Have to Take Care of Everything
Just Before Losing Everything
Record Play
The Voorman Problem

Best Documentary
The Act of Killing
Blackfish
The Square
Stories We Tell
Twenty Feet from Stardom

Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Grandmaster
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Missing Picture