Abe's Final Oscar Predictions

Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning, which is very exciting! I'm going to be traveling so may not be able to provide my usual category-by-category analysis until later than usual, but here's your official scoop on the predictions! Click on category headings to read detailed thoughts and analysis, and see the succinct list below.

Some last-minute thoughts:
Many are saying that Hailee Steinfeld might get promoted from supporting to lead for what most argue is in fact a lead role, just like Keisha Castle-Hughes did in 2003 for "Whale Rider." The important thing to remember is that Castle-Hughes is the exception to the role and that Steinfeld has been nominated by many critics groups in the supporting category and therefore there isn't any indication that she'd be bumped up. It's still possible, though, and Best Actress is absolutely a volatile category.

Will there be a surprise nominee for Best Picture? Who knows. Maybe "The Ghost Writer" or "Blue Valentine"? It would be really cool if "Another Year" or "Made in Dagenham" made a stunning comeback from being completely ignored by almost all precursors.

Three No Guts, No Glory predictions:
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" for Best Picture
Matt Damon (True Grit) for Best Supporting Actor
Olivia Williams (The Ghost Writer) for Best Supporting Actress

I'll post my reactions as soon as I'm able to, possibly starting as late as either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Feel free to comment on this post until then.

Also, don't go anywhere! The 4th Annual AFT Awards, my personal choice for the best in film from the year of 2010, begin next Tuesday, February 1st! If there is any category you'd like to see (including a reader's choice), please write in on any of my posts to say so!

Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O'Russell (The Fighter)
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
David Fincher (The Social Network)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Robert Duvall (Get Low)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Lesley Manville (Another Year)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

Best Original Screenplay
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay
Rabbit Hole
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Best Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
127 Hours
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Burlesque
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham

Best Film Editing
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Original Score
Inception
The King's Speech
Never Let Me Go
127 Hours
The Social Network

Best Original Song
"Bound to You" (Burlesque)
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" (Burlesque)
"Le Gris" (Idiots and Angels)
"I See the Light" (Tangled)
"We Belong Together" (Toy Story 3)

Best Sound
Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Best Sound Editing
Black Swan
Inception
Iron Man 2
Shutter Island
Toy Story 3

Best Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
Barney's Version
The Wolfman

Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
Iron Man 2
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
Tron: Legacy

Best Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Toy Story 3

Best Documentary Short Film
Killing in the Name
Living for 32
One Thousand Pictures: RFK's Last Journey
Poster Girl
The Warriors of Qiugang

Best Animated Short Film
Day & Night
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
The Silence beneath the Dark
Urs

Best Live Action Short Film
Ana's Playground
The Confession
The Cruch
God of Love
Wish 143

Best Documentary
Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer
Exit through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waiting for Superman

Best Foreign Language Film
Biutiful
Dogtooth
Incendies
In a Better World
Outside the Law