Wednesday Oscar Watch with Abe

Welcome to the final edition of Wednesday Oscar Watch with Abe. Every Wednesday, I’ve been taking a look at the awards chances for all of the films released the previous week, and this week I’m including the two films opening today. Chime in with your thoughts on the Oscar chances for these films in the comments section

The White Ribbon
This German film from director Michael Haneke is a very strong contender in the Best Foreign Film category. It has already received a Golden Globe nomination, and is probably the frontrunner in this category for an Oscar nod since some worry about the chances of “A Prophet” because it’s very violent, and the similar “Gomorra” got snubbed last year. This film probably won’t contend in other categories, like Best Cinematography, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Director, because it’s foreign and there are plenty of others films with better shots, but consider this the likely winner for Best Foreign Film, and a sure bet to be nominated.

Sherlock Holmes
Guy Ritchie isn’t going to be picking up an Oscar nomination anytime soon, and none of his stars are this year either. Robert Downey Jr. was a nominee last year, Jude Law was last nominated in 2003, and Rachel McAdams will be some day, but none of them have a chance this time around. The movie may score in the Best Art Direction and Best Original Score categories, and perhaps in the Best Costumes or Best Cinematography races as well, but it’s doubtful. It will probably have to settle for its Golden Globe nod for Downey Jr. and its impressive box office take.

It’s Complicated
This comedy earned three Golden Globe nominations, for Best Picture, Best Actress, and Best Screenplay. Meryl Streep is nominated against herself in “Julie & Julia” at the Golden Globes, something which isn’t possible at the Oscars, and she’ll definitely make it in for her portrayal of Julia Child over this role. The film could snag a Best Picture nomination if voters want to honor more mainstream entertainment, and Meyers could be well on her way to a second career Oscar nomination (the first was back in 1980 for penning “Private Benjamin”) if her screenplay is chosen as one of the five Best Original Screenplay nominees, both of which could but probably won’t happen. Alec Baldwin has been tossed around as a contender for Best Supporting Actor, but he has much more serious performances to contend against, and I don’t think his purely funny role can knock any of them out.

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
This movie is an odd case, one which has been bolstered by its significance as Heath Ledger’s final film and therefore received far more attention than it otherwise might have. Ledger didn’t film enough of his part to merit consideration, and wouldn’t really be in the running anyway since it’s nowhere near the caliber of his Oscar-winning performance in “The Dark Knight.” Christopher Plummer deservedly has buzz for his other film, “The Last Station.” The best shot this film has is in the Best Makeup category, since that’s one area in which the film excels, and that will probably be its only mention, though it could sneak into the Best Art Direction or Best Costumes category, if voters are feeling adventurous.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel
This film won’t really come into play at the Oscars, considering the high number of films in competition for the Best Animated Feature category and the fact that the first film didn’t get nominated.

Thanks for reading Wednesday Oscar Watch with Abe! Comb through previous editions here. If you’re looking to stay up-to-date on the Oscars, take a look at the Monday Oscar Odds, Friday For Your Consideration, and prepare for Oscar predictions in each category coming in mid-January. And don’t miss the AFT Awards, my choices for the best in cinema this year, beginning this Friday, January 1st.