Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The nominees:
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

My ballot: 2/5 (TBA soon)
Who should win: Ledger
Who will win: There’s no reason why Ledger won’t win, even though Oscar history contains only one posthumous win. He’s just too popular and I don’t think any of these other four (with the absence of Dev Patel) have the buzz or the momentum to defeat him.