Final SAG Predictions

I’m making approximately one change per category here based on the Golden Globe nominations, which don’t necessarily have much to do with SAG, but still got me thinking. Asterisked categories have modified predictions. I’m taking out Abbie Cornish and replacing her with Emily Blunt, though it could easily be Sandra Bullock or (fingers crossed) Tilda Swinton. I’m not so sure about Best Supporting Actor, and I think that Alfred Molina, who missed out on a Globe and later Oscar nod in 2002 but did score a SAG nomination, will be here and someone else won’t. I’m not sure who that will be, but let’s say Christopher Plummer for the moment. I’ve been racking my brain trying to figure out who will fill the fifth slots in the lead actor and ensemble category, and I have a somewhat wild hunch, which is that “The Messenger” will end up with four nominations, making a big showing in the same surprising way that films like “Into the Wild” and especially “The Station Agent” have done in the past. Best Actor is most unpredictable, since Jeremy Renner’s Globe snub indicates he’s not well known enough, and I can’t imagine Tobey Maguire showing up here. We’ll see what happens – come back tomorrow morning for analysis of the nominees, one category per hour.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture*
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Ben Foster, The Messenger
Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture*
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture*
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Alfred Molina, An Education
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious
Samantha Morton, The Messenger

Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture*
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
The Messenger
Nine
Up in the Air