Oscar Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Because of the busy nature of the next few weeks awards-wise, here are my current Oscar predictions, subject to minor revisions before nominations are announced on January 25th.

Last year’s nominees: Penelope Cruz, Vera Farmiga, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Anna Kendrick, Monique

This year’s locks: Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)

Very likely: Amy Adams (The Fighter)

Possible: Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), Mila Kunis (Black Swan)

Unlikely: Barbara Hershey (Black Swan), Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole), Miranda Richardson (Made in Dagenham), Dale Dickey (Winter’s Bone), Rosamund Pike (Made in Dagenham or Barney’s Version), Marion Cotillard (Inception), Ruth Sheen (Another Year), Lesley Manville (Another Year)

The rundown: It’s too early at this point to know if we’ll have a bona fide frontrunner like Monique this year. Both Carter and Leo seem to be good bets, and Adams will probably join them. Weaver’s SAG snub made way for Steinfeld, and I still have a feeling that both of them will get in and Kunis won’t make the cut. Last year, Gyllenhaal snuck in the way that Kunis could have if she hadn’t been getting all this precursor love. We’ve still seen very little of veteran actress Hershey, Wiest, and Redgrave, and what we have seen of Pike hasn’t been decisively for one role over the other. Dickey could enter the race just like costar John Hawkes did at the SAG Awards, and Sheen will only place if Oscar voters, unlike all of the precursors, actually profess love for her film. The most unpredictable factor, like her character, is Cotillard, who could get in a wave of enthusiasm for a film that will make a huge splash at the Oscars.

One possible crazy scenario: Lesley Manville could get in here rather than for lead.

Forecasted winner: Too early to tell, but I think it could be Weaver if she gets in at all.