Golden Globe Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Drama

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog

An important update in this race is that international features are now eligible, though I’m not sure any will make the cut this time around, with All Quiet on the Western Front and Decision to Leave probably likeliest to do so, if any do. The frontrunners are The Fabelmans, Women Talking, and Tár. I think that She Said and Top Gun: Maverick will join them, but they’ll face plenty of competition from The Whale, Empire of Light, Elvis, Aftersun, Till, Causeway, Bones and All, Living, The Woman King, Emancipation, The Son, Thirteen Lives, and The Inspection. Avatar: The Way of Water and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever may also join their predecessors as nominees in this category.

Current predictions:
The Fabelmans
She Said
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking