Golden Globe Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

I’ve been predicting the Golden Globe nominations for more than fifteen years, and even if the group doesn’t have the same industry relevance as in the past, it’s still helpful and fun to see what films and performances get honored. Here’s my assessment of the contenders in this category.

Last year’s nominees:
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

This is a category that mostly draws from Best Motion Picture - Drama nominees and a well-received Comedy/Musical honoree or two. The last two years have featured at least two female nominees, and that may or may not be repeated this year. Sarah Polley (Women Talking) is a sure thing, while Maria Schrader (She Said) and Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King) are true longshots. Likeliest to join Polley are Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Other possibilities include Todd Field (Tár), Damien Chazelle (Babylon), James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Darren Aronofsky (The Whale), Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness), Sam Mendes (Empire of Light), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), and Noah Baumbach (White Noise). I suspect that the final slot will go to an international director who just won the New York Film Critics Circle prize: S.S. Rajamouli (RRR).

Current predictions:
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
S.S. Rajamouli (RRR)
Sarah Polley (Women Talking)