Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Feature

The competition: Ascension, Attica, Flee, Summer of Soul, Writing with Fire

Previous winners: My Octopus Teacher, American Factory, Free Solo, Icarus, OJ: Made in America, Amy, Citizenfour
My winner: Coming soon
The facts: This is the first nomination for all filmmakers except for producer Signe Byrge Sørensen, who was previously nominated for “The Look of Silence” and “The Act of Killing,” and contends along with the rest of the “Flee” team for Best Animated Feature (and Best International Feature, though they aren’t officially listed as nominees). “Flee” is the third consecutive film to be nominated in this category and in Best International Feature, and the first to also be nominated for Best Animated Feature. “Summer of Soul” was the big winner at the International Documentary Association and the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, though “Flee” won the top prize at the former. “Summer of Soul” won the PGA Award and the BAFTA.
Who should win: Though “Attica” and “Flee” are both great choices, as is “Summer of Soul,” I would pick the film least likely to win here: “Writing with Fire.”
Who will win: It’s distinctly possible that “Flee” could win, but it’s hard to argue with the many victories Summer of Soul has racked up. If there was going to be a dark horse, it would be “Attica,” but I don’t think it’s going to happen.