Interview with Abe: Plaza Catedral

While their film wasn't ultimately nominated for the Best International Feature Oscar despite making the shortlist, I highly recommend Panama's entry, “Plaza Catedral.” I got to speak for Cinema Daily US with director Abner Benaim and star Ilse Salas. Watch our conversation in full below!

Movie with Abe: Huda's Salon

Palestinian director Hany Abu-Assad's latest film, “Huda's Salon,” which opened earlier this month in theaters and on demand, is well-made and probes interesting if very complicated themes. I reviewed the film for Jewcy - head over there to read my review.

SXSW with Abe: Boycott

SXSW may be over, but I want to make sure to share any remaining coverage that I didn't get to post here during the festival.

“Boycott,” which showed at SXSW in the Festival Favorites section, is a worthwhile documentary that treads in dangerous territory. I reviewed the film for Jewcy - head over there to read my review.

Interview with Abe: Ahsen Nadeem

SXSW may be over, but I want to make sure to share any remaining coverage that I didn't get to post here during the festival.

 Ahsen Nadeem takes a fascinating journey in “Crows Are White,” which premiered at SXSW in the Documentary Spotlight spection. I spoke with him for CinemaDailyUS.com - watch the full conversation above.

SXSW with Abe: Gabby Giffords Won't Back Down

SXSW may be over, but I want to make sure to share any remaining coverage that I didn't get to post here during the festival.

“Gabby Giffords Won't Back Down” which premiered at SXSW in the Documentary Spotlight section, is an inspiring and uplifting chronicle of a resilient and driven couple. I reviewed the film for CinemaDailyUS.com - head over there to read my review.

Oscar Reactions: 22/23 Correct!

I was thrilled to achieve my best-ever predictions score at last night's Oscars, missing just Best Animated Short. Check out “my brief reactions and all of the winners” over at CinemaDailyUS.com.

Your Guide to the Oscars

For the fifth year in a row, I managed to see every single film nominated in every category. It’s been a long time between the nominations announcement and the big night, so things have had a chance to shift over those weeks and now there are only a few races that are truly up in the air, most notably Best Picture and Best Actress. At this point, I’m excited to be predicting my personal choices for both of those races – “CODA” and Jessica Chastain.

I’ve detailed the nominees and their chances in each of the categories below, and you can click on each race heading to read my full Oscar winner predictions. Additionally, I was able to speak with almost all of the filmmakers in the shorts categories, so click on those titles to watch them. Predicted winners are in bold – at this point, I’m betting on “CODA” going three for three on its nominations with “Dune” picking up six trophies and “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” scoring two, and just one win for all the rest. Click on feature film titles for full reviews of each. Happy watching!

Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

Best Director
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

Best Original Screenplay
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World

Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog

Best Cinematography
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Best Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Best Costume Design
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

Best Film Editing
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick…BOOM!

Best Original Score
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog

Best Original Song
“Down to Joy” (Belfast)
“Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)
“Be Alive” (King Richard)
“No Time to Die” (No Time to Die)
“Somehow You Do” (Four Good Days)

Best Sound
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Coming to America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci

Best Visual Effects
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home

Best Live Action Short Film
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold

Best Animated Short Film
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper

Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon

Best Documentary Short Film
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies

Best Documentary
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire

Best International Feature
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Picture

The competition: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story

Previous winners: Nomadland, Parasite, Green Book, The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Spotlight, Birdman
My winner: Promising Young Woman
The facts: “The Power of the Dog” is the nominations leader, with twelve bids. “Dune” is next with ten, “West Side Story” and “Belfast” have seven, “King Richard” has six, “Don’t Look Up,” “Drive My Car,” and “Nightmare Alley” have four, and “CODA” and “Licorice Pizza” have three. Most precusors have gone to “The Power of the Dog,” but “CODA” has surged recently, winning the SAG Award for ensemble cast (where the former frontrunner wasn’t nominated) and then the PGA Award. It’s incredibly rare for a film to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination, but “Green Book” pulled it off three years ago, suggesting that “CODA” still could, even if it also doesn’t have a Best Film Editing nomination. Read more in my Oscar Volley for The Film Experience.

Who should win: “CODA” is my number one, following closely by “Belfast” and “Licorice Pizza.”
Who will win: I’m going with CODA over “The Power of the Dog,” which still could easily triumph.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Director

The competition: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

Previous winners: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland), Bong Joon Ho (Parasite), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water), Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman)
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: The only first-time nominee in this category is Hamaguchi, who is also a nominee this year for his film’s screenplay. Spielberg has two wins out of seven for directing, triumphing for “Schindler’s List” and “Saving Private Ryan.” He also contends as a producer this year, a category that has earned him ten additional previous nominations and one win. He also received the Irving G. Thalberg Memorial Award in 1986. This is the eighth nomination for Branagh, who also contends as writer and producer for his film this year. His five previous nods are all in different categories: actor, supporting actor, director, adapted screenplay, and live action short. This is the eleventh nomination for Anderson, who contends as writer and producer for his film this year and has previous screenwriting bids for “Boogie Nights,” “Magnolia,” “There Will Be Blood,” and “Inherent Vice,” with one nomination in this category, for “Phantom Thread.” Campion, who is also nominated as a writer and producer this year, has one previous nomination in this category, for 1993’s “The Piano,” which won her the original screenplay prize. Campion lost this award to Spielberg in that race. Campion has picked up almost all precursors this year. Her nearest competition was Denis Villeneuve for With the exception of when Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated for an Oscar in 2012 for “Argo” and in 2019, the DGA winner has gone on to win this award every year for the past fifteen years.
Who should win: I’m all for Campion winning even if I’d also be happy to see Branagh or Anderson rewarded.
Who will win: I don’t see this going to anyone but Campion.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best International Feature

The competition: Drive My Car (Japan), Flee (Denmark), The Hand of God (Italy), Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan), The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

Previous winners: Another Round (Denmark), Parasite (South Korea), Roma (Mexico), A Fantastic Woman (Chile), The Salesman (Iran), Son of Saul (Hungary), Ida (Poland)
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This is the fourth consecutive year that a nominee here also contends for Best Director, with Ryusuke Hamaguchi honored, and the third in four years to be up for Best Picture. This is the third consecutive year that a film here – “Flee” this time – is up for Best Documentary, and the first time it’s also up for Best Animated Feature. “Waltz with Bashir” is the only other animated film to have been nominated for this prize. Both “Drive My Car” and “The Worst Person in the World” have their screenplays nominated. Italy is the most-awarded country in this category, with fourteen wins, most recently for another film by “The Hand of God” director Paolo Sorrentino, “The Great Beauty.” Japan has four wins out of seventeen nominations, with “Departures” the most recent to triumph in 2008. Denmark has won four times out of fourteen nominations, most recently last year, for “Another Round,” and this is the country’s sixth nomination in ten years. Norway has yet to win despite six nominations. This is Bhutan’s first-ever nomination. They first submitted a film in 1999 and then tried to submit this year’s nominee last year but were disqualified. “Drive My Car” has taken most precursor prizes.
Who should win: All these choices are good. I think I would vote for “Lunana” but any would be solid.
Who will win: I don’t see a world where Drive My Car loses this, though “The Worst Person in the World” and “Flee” will surely have support.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Feature

The competition: Ascension, Attica, Flee, Summer of Soul, Writing with Fire

Previous winners: My Octopus Teacher, American Factory, Free Solo, Icarus, OJ: Made in America, Amy, Citizenfour
My winner: Coming soon
The facts: This is the first nomination for all filmmakers except for producer Signe Byrge Sørensen, who was previously nominated for “The Look of Silence” and “The Act of Killing,” and contends along with the rest of the “Flee” team for Best Animated Feature (and Best International Feature, though they aren’t officially listed as nominees). “Flee” is the third consecutive film to be nominated in this category and in Best International Feature, and the first to also be nominated for Best Animated Feature. “Summer of Soul” was the big winner at the International Documentary Association and the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, though “Flee” won the top prize at the former. “Summer of Soul” won the PGA Award and the BAFTA.
Who should win: Though “Attica” and “Flee” are both great choices, as is “Summer of Soul,” I would pick the film least likely to win here: “Writing with Fire.”
Who will win: It’s distinctly possible that “Flee” could win, but it’s hard to argue with the many victories Summer of Soul has racked up. If there was going to be a dark horse, it would be “Attica,” but I don’t think it’s going to happen.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Short

The nominees: Audible, Lead Me Home, The Queen of Basketball, Three Songs for Benazir, When We Were Bullies

Previous winners: Colette, Period. End of Sentence., Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405, The White Helmets, A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness, Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, The Lady in Number 6 

For your information: This is the first nomination for all filmmakers except for Ben Proudfoot, who was nominated last year for “A Concerto is a Conversation” and returns this year with “The Queen of Basketball.” I had the pleasure to interview all the filmmakers – click on the titles above to watch! “Audible,” “Lead Me Home,” and “Three Songs for Benazir” are all streaming on Netflix, “The Queen of Basketball” is on YouTube, and “When We Were Bullies” premieres on HBO Max on March 30th.

Who should win: These are all good films. I think I might choose “Lead Me Home,” but I would be happy with any of them.
Who will win: I honestly have no idea, but I think I’ll go with The Queen of Basketball.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Animated Feature

The competition: Encanto, Flee, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon

Previous winners: Soul, Toy Story 4, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Coco, Zootopia, Inside Out, Big Hero 6, Frozen, Brave, Rango, Toy Story 3, Up, Wall-E, Ratatouille, Happy Feet, Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, The Incredibles, Finding Nemo, Spirited Away, Shrek
My winner: Coming soon
The facts: Pixar has won eleven times out of fifteen nominations, and has “Luca” in contention this year. Disney, which made “Encanto” and “Raya and the Last Dragon,” has eleven previous nominations and three wins. Sony’s second nominee, “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” won this prize three years ago, and now the studio has “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” here. Though there have been a handful of foreign-language films nominated, none have won, marking an uphill battle for “Flee,” which is also up for Best International Feature and Best Documentary. The only other film with an additional nomination is “Encanto,” which is up for Best Original Score and Best Original Song. While the Annie Awards went wild for “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” and also gave “Flee” its Indie Feature prize, “Encanto” won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, and the PGA Award.
Who should win: “Encanto” is one of my favorite movies of the year. But I also really liked “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” and would be happy to see that win.
Who will win: It’s hard to tell. The additional bids for Encanto may put it over the top, but now it feels like “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” might overtake it. I’m sticking with the former. “Flee” is also possible, but I don’t think it’s going to win here.

Weekend Recommendations with Abe

Every Friday, I'll be uploading a Minute with Abe: Weekend Movie Recommendations Edition, surveying new releases in theaters, on DVD, and on streaming services. Check it out, and subscribe to the movieswithabe channel!

New to Theaters: 7 Days, Mothering Sunday, Superior
New to DVD: Nightmare Alley
New to Hulu: Wrath of Man
New to HBO Max: King Richard
Oscar Predictions

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Animated Short

The nominees: Affairs of the Art, Bestia, Boxballet, Robin Robin, The Windshield Wiper

Previous winners: If Anything Happens I Love You, Hair Love, Bao, Dear Basketball, Piper, Bear Story, Feast

For your information: This is the first Oscar nomination for all filmmakers except “Affairs of the Art” director Joanna Quinn, who was nominated in this category twenty-five years ago for “Famous Fred.” I had the pleasure to interview almost all the filmmakers – click on the titles above to watch! Most of the films are available to watch – “Affairs of the Art” and “The Windshield Wiper” are on YouTube, “Bestia” can be rented on Vimeo, and “Robin Robin” is on Netflix.

Who should win: I think I liked “The Windshield Wiper” best.
Who will win: Though its content is a bit jarring, I think Bestia wins.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Live Action Short

The nominees: Ala Kachuu – Take and Run, The Dress, The Long Goodbye, On My Mind, Please Hold

Previous winners: Two Distant Strangers, The Neighbor’s Window, Skin, The Silent Child, Sing, Stutterer, The Phone Call
For your information: Both “On My Mind” filmmakers have previous wins. Director Martin Strange-Hansen won this prize in 2002 for “This Charming Man.” Producer Kim Magnusson has six previous nominations in this category, with two wins, for 1998’s “Election Night” and 2013’s “Helium.” “The Dress” producer Maciej Slesicki was nominated in 2013 for the documentary short “Our Curse.” “The Long Goodbye” producer Riz Ahmed was nominated last year for his performance in “Sound of Metal.” This is the first nomination for all other filmmakers. I had the pleasure to interview all the filmmakers – click on the titles above to watch! Also be sure to check out my conversations with two of the film’s stars, Erick Lopez and Riz Ahmed. All five films are available to watch online. Rent “Ala Kachuu” and “The Dress” on Vimeo, watch “The Long Goodbye” and “On My Mind” on YouTube, and “Please Hold” on HBO Max.

Who should win: I’m all for this list. I would probably choose “Ala Kachuu” or “The Long Goodbye.”
Who will win: This category is competitive. I’ll go with The Long Goodbye but it could be any of them.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Visual Effects

The competition: Dune (Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer), Free Guy (Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, and Daniel Sudick), No Time to Die (Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner, and Chris Corbould), Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker, and Dan Oliver), Spider-Man: No Way Home (Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, and Daniel Sudick)

Previous winners: Tenet, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Lambert has gone two for two, winning for “First Man” and “Blade Runner 2049.” Nefzer and Myles also won for the former and latter films, respectively. Gillberg was previously nominated for “Real Steel.” Grill was previously nominated for “Hereafter” and “Captain America: The Winter Soldier.” Sudick, a double nominee this year, has ten previous nominations, eight of which were for Marvel movies. Fawkner was nominated for “Guardians of the Galaxy” and its sequel. Corbould won for “Inception” and has four additional previous nominations. Townsend was nominated for “Iron Man 3” and “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2.” Farrell was nominated for “Hereafter.” Oliver was nominated for “Mad Max: Fury Road.” Port was nominated for “Avengers: Infinity War.” I had the chance to speak with Walker about “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” – watch that conversation here. At the Visual Effects Society Awards, “Dune” cleaned up and “Spider-Man: No Way Home” won one prize. Despite a six-year stretch from 2008 to 2013, this award has only gone to a Best Picture nominee twenty-three times since the inception of the Oscars.
Who should win: This is a good list, but it’s hard to compete with “Dune.”
Who will win: I don’t imagine there’s anything, even the ultra-popular “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” that could beat Dune.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The competition: Coming 2 America (Michael Marino, Stacey Morris, and Carla Farmer), Cruella (Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne, and Julia Vernon), Dune (Donald Mowat, Love Larson, and Eva Von Bahr), The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Stephanie Ingram, Linda Dowds, and Justin Raleigh), House of Gucci (Göran Lundström, AnnaCarin Lock, and Frederic Aspiras)

Previous winners: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Bombshell, Vice, Darkest Hour, Suicide Squad, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Grand Budapest Hotel
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Donne was nominated for “1917.” Larson and Von Bahr were nominated for “A Man Called Ove” and “The 100 Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared.” Lundström was nominated for “Border.” “Coming 2 America” was the big winner at the Hollywood Makeup Artist and Hair Stylist Guild Awards, where “Cruella” also won a prize. Six winners in the last ten years in this category have been Best Picture nominees, with “Dune” being the only one with that distinction this year.
Who should win: “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” would probably be my choice, but this is a good list.
Who will win: I think The Eyes of Tammy Faye take this, but it could just as easily be any of them.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Sound

The competition: Belfast (Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather, and Niv Adiri), Dune (Mac Ruth, Mark A. Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett), No Time to Die (Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey, and Mark Taylor), The Power of the Dog (Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie, and Tara Webb), West Side Story (Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, and Shawn Murphy)

Previous winners: Sound: Sound of Metal, 1917, Bohemian Rhapsody, Dunkirk, Hacksaw Ridge, Mad Max: Fury Road, Whiplash / Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari, Bohemian Rhapsody, Dunkirk, Arrival, Mad Max: Fury Road, American Sniper
My winner: Coming soon
The facts: Adiri won for “Gravity” in 2013. Ruth was nominated for “The Martian,” “13 Hours,” and “Blade Runner 2049.” Mangini won for “Mad Max: Fury Road” and earned four additional bids. Green was previously nominated for “Blade Runner 2049.” Hemphill won for “The Last of the Mohicans” and has eight additional previous nominations. Bartlett was nominated for “Life of Pi” and “Blade Runner 2049.” Hayes won for “Les Miserables.” Tarney was nominated for “News of the World,” “1917,” “The Martian,” and “Captain Phillips.” Massey won for “Bohemian Rhapsody” and has eight additional previous nominations. Taylor won for “1917” and was also nominated for “The Martian” and “Captain Phillips.” Mackenzie won for “Hacksaw Ridge.” Maitland was nominated for “Joker,” “Seabiscuit,” “JFK,” and “Born on the Fourth of July.” Rydstrom won multiple prizes for “Saving Private Ryan,” “Titanic,” “Jurassic Park,” and “Terminator 2: Judgment Day.” This is his twentieth nomination. Nelson won for “Les Miserables” and “Saving Private Ryan.” This is his twenty-second nomination. Murphy won for “Jurassic Park” and was also nominated for “Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade” and “Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace.”

This category, for the second year, combines Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing into one. “Dune” and “West Side Story” took home prizes from the Motion Picture Sound Editors Golden Reel Awards, and “Dune” was awarded by the Cinema Audio Society. 

Who should win: This is a good list. I would choose “Dune.”
Who will win: This feels like a safe victory for Dune.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Song

The competition: Down to Joy (Belfast), Dos Oruguitas (Encanto), Somehow You Do (Four Good Days), Be Alive (King Richard), No Time to Die (No Time to Die)

Previous winners: I’m Gonna Love Me Again (Rocketman), Shallow (A Star is Born), Remember Me (Coco), City of Stars (La La Land), Writing’s on the Wall (Spectre), Glory (Selma)
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This is the thirteen overall and fifth consecutive nomination in this category for Diane Warren after songs from “The Life Ahead,” “Breakthrough,” “RBG,” and “Marshall,” and she earned her first bid back in 1987 for a song from “Mannequin.” She’s up this year for “Somehow You Do.” Lin-Manuel Miranda earns his second nomination for “Dos Oruguitas” after contending five years ago for a song from “Moana.” At the Golden Globes and the Hollywood Music in Media Awards, “No Time to Die” triumphed. The last nine Golden Globe winners have gone on to be nominated here, with six of them triumphing.
Who should win: This is a good list, but nothing compares to “No Time to Die.”
Who will win: The song from “Encanto” isn’t the most popular, so I don’t think it can eclipse No Time to Die, and Warren will need to wait for a more popular film to finally win.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Score

The competition: Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell), Dune (Hans Zimmer), Encanto (Germaine Franco), Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias), The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)

Previous winners: Soul, Joker, Black Panther, The Shape of Water, La La Land, The Hateful Eight, The Grand Budapest Hotel
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This is the twelfth nomination for Zimmer, who won in 1994 for “The Lion King” and was most recently nominated in 2017 for “Dunkirk.” This is the fourth nomination for Iglesias, who was previously contended for “The Constant Gardener,” “The Kite Runner,” and “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.” This is the third nomination for Britell, who was previously nominated for “Moonlight” and “If Beale Street Could Talk.” Greenwood was previously nominated for “Phantom Thread.” In the past two decades, this award has gone to a film not nominated for Best Picture only three times. At the Hollywood Music in Media Awards, “Dune” won the sci-fi/fantasy prize, “Parallel Mothers” took the international prize, and “Don’t Look Up” beat “The Power of the Dog.” Strangely, “Encanto” wasn’t even nominated for the animated prize. “Dune” won at the Golden Globes and BAFTA.
Who should win: I would choose “Dune” or “The Power of the Dog,” and wouldn’t mind “Parallel Mothers” either.
Who will win: I think Dune can win this.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Film Editing

The competition: Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin), Dune (Joe Walker), King Richard (Pamela Martin), The Power of the Dog (Pamela Sciberras), tick, tick…BOOM! (Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum)

Previous winners: Sound of Metal, Ford v Ferrari, Bohemian Rhapsody, Dunkirk, Hacksaw Ridge, Mad Max: Fury Road, Whiplash
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This is the third nomination for Corwin, who was previously nominated for his past collaborations with director Adam McKay, “The Big Short” and “Vice.” This is the third nomination for Walker, who was previously nominated for “Arrival” and “12 Years a Slave.” This is the second nomination for both Martin and Weisblum, who were previously cited for “The Fighter” and “Black Swan,” respectively. At the American Cinema Editors Awards, “King Richard” beat “Dune” and “The Power of the Dog,” and “tick, tick…BOOM!” beat “Licorice Pizza.” The winner of this award hasn’t gone on to win Best Picture since “Argo” in 2012, and it’s actually much more common for the two not to match up, though all but one of the last ten winners were nominated for the top prize. All of these films but “tick, tick…BOOM!” are nominated for Best Picture.
Who should win: “tick, tick…BOOM!” or “Dune”
Who will win: I’d love to predict “tick, tick…BOOM!” but I think that Dune is the safest option.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Costume Design

The competition: Cruella (Jenny Beavan), Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran), Dune (Jacqueline West and Bob Morgan), Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira), West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)

Previous winners: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Little Women, Black Panther, Phantom Thread, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Grand Budapest Hotel
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This is the eleventh nomination for Beavan, who won for “A Room with a View” and “Mad Max: Fury Road.” This is the eighth nomination for Durran, who won for “Anna Karenina” and “Little Women.” This is the fourth nomination for West, who was previously nominated for “Quills,” “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” and “The Revenant.” This is the second nomination for Parrini and Sequeira, who were previously nominated for “Pinocchio” and “The Shape of Water,” respectively. “Cruella” defeated all of these nominees aside from “Dune,” which won its own category, at the Costume Designers Guild Awards.
Who should win: “Cruella”
Who will win: It’s far from a guarantee, but Cruella could actually take down “Dune” here.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Production Design

The competition: Dune (Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos), Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau), The Power of the Dog (Grant Major and Amber Richards), The Tragedy of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh), West Side Story (Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo)

Previous winners: Mank, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Black Panther, The Shape of Water, La La Land, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Grand Budapest Hotel
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This is the ninth nomination for Haigh, who won twice, for “Bugsy” and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” This is the fifth nomination for Major, who won for “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King.” This is the fourth nomination for Stockhausen, who won for “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” This is the third nomination for Vermette, who was previously cited for “The Young Victoria” and “Arrival.” This is the second nomination for Vieau, who won for “The Shape of Water,” and also for DeAngelo, who was previously nominated for “Bridge of Spies.” At the Art Directors Guild Awards, “Nightmare Alley” and “Dune” took home prizes, while “Dune” won an award at the Set Decorators Society of America Awards. “Dune” won the BAFTA.
Who should win: I’d choose “Nightmare Alley.”
Who will win: While this could go to “Nightmare Alley,” I think Dune will ultimately triumph.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Cinematography

The competition: Dune (Greig Fraser), Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen), The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner), The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel), West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski)

Previous winners: Mank, 1917, Blade Runner 2049, La La Land, The Revenant, Birdman
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This is the seventh nomination for Kaminski, and his sixth for a collaboration with director Steven Spielberg. He won for “Schindler’s List” and “Saving Private Ryan,” and received additional bids for “Amistad,” “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” “War Horse,” and “Lincoln.” This is the sixth nomination for Delbonnel, who was nominated for “Amélie,” “A Very Long Engagement,” “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince,” “Inside Llewyn Davis,” and “Darkest Hour.” Fraser and Laustsen have both been nominated once before, for “Lion” and “The Shape of Water,” respectively, and this is the first nomination for Wegner. A Best Picture nominee has won this award every year over the past decade except for in 2017 – “The Tragedy of Macbeth” is the only film not up for the top prize. If “Nightmare Alley” or “The Tragedy of Macbeth” won, they would become the second consecutive black-and-white film to win here. “Dune” won the American Society of Cinematographers Award and the BAFTA.
Who should win: This is a great list. I think I would pick “Dune” or “Belfast.”
Who will win: I think Dune wins, but this is a competitive category.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

The competition: CODA (Sian Heder), Drive My Car (Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe), Dune (Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth), The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal), The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)

Previous winners: The Father, Jojo Rabbit, BlacKkKlansman, Call Me By Your Name, Moonlight, The Big Short, The Imitation Game
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: The director of each of these films is among the nominees in this category. Campion won for her screenplay of “The Piano” in 1993, and also contends as a director and producer this year. Roth has five previous nominations in this category, winning for “Forrest Gump” in 1994 and contending again for “The Insider,” “Munich,” “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” and “A Star is Born.” Villeneuve, who is also nominated as a producer this year, was nominated for directing “Arrival” in 2016. With this exact list of nominees at BAFTA, “CODA” triumphed, and it also won at WGA with a few nominees present. “The Lost Daughter” won the USC Scripter, which also had a few nominees missing.
Who should win: I’d prefer “CODA,” “Dune,” or “The Power of the Dog,” but these are all great choices.
Who will win: I think that “The Power of the Dog” remains possible, but CODA is looking more and more likely.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

The competition: Belfast (Kenneth Branagh), Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay and David Sirota), King Richard (Zach Baylin), Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson), The Worst Person in the World (Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier)

Previous winners: Promising Young Woman, Parasite, Green Book, Get Out, Manchester by the Sea, Spotlight, Birdman
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: This is the eleventh nomination for Anderson, who contends as director and producer for his film this year and has previous screenwriting bids for “Boogie Nights,” “Magnolia,” “There Will Be Blood,” and “Inherent Vice.” This is the eighth nomination for Branagh, who contends as director and producer for his film this year. His five previous nods are all in different categories: actor, supporting actor, director, adapted screenplay, and live action short. This is the seventh nomination for McKay, who contends as producer of his film this year. He won for the screenplay of “The Big Short” in 2015 and was nominated again in 2018 for “Vice.” The only film in this category not nominated for Best Picture, “The Worst Person in the World,” is up for Best International Feature. Recently, “Licorice Pizza” won the WGA prize and “Don’t Look Up” took the BAFTA.

Who should win: “Licorice Pizza” and “Belfast” would both be great choices.
Who will win: This will likely lead to either Anderson or Branagh winning their first-ever Oscar, unless “Don’t Look Up” can best them. I’ll bet on Branagh and Belfast.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The competition: Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Judi Dench (Belfast), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

Previous winners: Yuh-Jung Youn, Laura Dern, Regina King, Allison Janney, Viola Davis, Alicia Vikander, Patricia Arquette
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: The only woman in this race who has been nominated before. The 87-year-old actress, who is just a few months younger than the oldest-ever nominee in this category, Gloria Stuart for “Titanic,” won in 1998 for “Shakespeare in Love,” and received additional nominations for “Mrs. Brown,” “Chocolat,” “Iris,” “Mrs. Henderson Presents,” “Notes on a Scandal,” and “Philomena.” Buckley’s film is the only one not up for Best Picture. DeBose has won most of the precursors this year, and the same role won Rita Moreno this prize exactly sixty years ago.
Who should win: DeBose
Who will win: Dunst had heat for a while, but DeBose is going to win this.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Ciarán Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Previous winners: Daniel Kaluuya, Brad Pitt, Mahershala Ali, Sam Rockwell, Mahershala Ali, Mark Rylance, J.K. Simmons
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Only one of these men has been nominated for an Oscar before, and that’s Simmons, who won in 2014 for “Whiplash.” He’s also the only one whose film isn’t up for Best Picture. While Smit-McPhee won most critics’ prizes and the Golden Globe, Kotsur has been reliably cleaning up since then. Two actors from one film have been nominated together previously, including three times in the past four years, leading to two victories from that film.
Who should win: Kotsur
Who will win: It’s possible that Smit-McPhee could still muster voters, but Kotsur is a very popular choice and I don’t think he’s going to lose.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The competition: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Previous winners: Frances McDormand, Renee Zellweger, Olivia Colman, Frances McDormand, Emma Stone, Brie Larson, Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchett
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: The only first-time nominee in this race is Stewart, who also represents the lone nomination for her film. Kidman won in 2002 for “The Hours” and this marks her fifth nod, with additional bids for “Moulin Rouge,” “Rabbit Hole,” and “Lion.” This is the fourth nomination for Cruz, who won in 2008 for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and was also cited for “Volver” and “Nine.” Colman won on her first try in 2018 for “The Favourite” and was nominated again last year for “The Father.” Chastain was nominated in 2011 and 2012 for “The Help” and “Zero Dark Thirty,” respectively. None of these films are up for Best Picture. The precursor season has been very divided with inconsistent nominees. Chastain won at SAG and the Critics Choice Awards, while Kidman took home the Golden Globe, but Stewart and Cruz sat some of those competitions out.

Who should win: Chastain
Who will win: I had been sticking with Stewart for so long, but after her SAG snub and then her loss at the Critics Choice Awards to apparent new frontrunner Chastain, I think I’m officially switching over to the latter. Like last year, anyone could theoretically win here, but it’s likely Chastain is ahead of the rest.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!), Will Smith (King Richard), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Previous winners: Anthony Hopkins, Joaquin Phoenix, Rami Malek, Gary Oldman, Casey Affleck, Leonardo DiCaprio, Eddie Redmayne
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: All five of these men have been nominated previously. Washington has two wins – for “Glory” and “Training Day” – and this is his ninth acting bid. Bardem won in 2007 for “No Country for Old Men” and has two additional bids. Smith, who is also nominated as a producer on his film, was nominated twice before, for “Ali” and “The Pursuit of Happyness.” Cumberbatch and Garfield each have one previous bid, for “The Imitation Game” and “Hacksaw Ridge,” respectively. Only Cumberbatch and Smith have their films nominated for Best Picture. Smith has collected most precursor prizes, though Garfield has won a few as well. This exact list contended at SAG. Last year marked only the second time that an actor in this category had won both the Golden Globe and the SAG and then lost this prize, with the late Chadwick Boseman joining Russell Crowe, whose 2001 performance in “A Beautiful Mind” was ultimately bested by Washington.
Who should win: Garfield or Cumberbatch
Who will win: I think Smith has a clear shot to the Oscar.