SAG Winner Predictions: Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!), Will Smith (King Richard), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

For your information: Bardem won a SAG Award in 2007 for “No Country for Old Men” and was nominated again in 2012 for “Skyfall.” Cumberbatch has two previous nominations for “Sherlock” and was also up in 2014 for “The Imitation Game.” Garfield was nominated in 2016 for “Hacksaw Ridge.” Smith was nominated in 2006 for “The Pursuit of Happyness.” Washington has five previous nominations, and he won on his most recent try, in 2016 for “Fences.” Only Smith is also nominated as part of his ensemble. All but five times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win an Oscar. The most recent time it didn’t happen was last year, when the late Chadwick Boseman defeated eventual Oscar champ Anthony Hopkins, and before that in 2016 when Washington beat eventually Oscar champ Casey Affleck here. Smith won the Golden Globe, beating out all but Garfield, who won the corresponding comedy/musical prize.

Who should win? I would choose Garfield or Cumberbatch.

Who will win? While Cumberbatch could ultimately pull ahead in the Oscar race, Smith is very likely to win here.