SAG Winner Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Ruth Negga (Passing)

For your information: Aside from Dunst, who has a previous ensemble bid (and win) for “Hidden Figures,” the only woman in this category who isn’t a first-time nominee is Blanchett. She has nine previous individual nominations, which resulted in wins for “The Aviator” and “Blue Jasmine,” and six ensemble bids, one of which led to a win, for “The Return of the King.” Balfe is the only one whose ensemble is also nominated this year, but Blanchett is also nominated as part of the “Don’t Look Up” ensemble. Only DeBose and Dunst are in the corresponding Oscar lineup. All but seven times since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, the winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar.

Who should win? I would choose DeBose or Blanchett, but Balfe and Negga are also solid picks.

Who will win? I think DeBose wins, but Dunst could also triumph here.