Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen, Daniel Kaluuya, Leslie Odom Jr., Paul Raci, Lakeith Stanfield

This year’s locks: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Troy Kotsur

Very likely: Ciarán Hinds

Possible: Jamie Dornan, Mike Faist, Jared Leto, Bradley Cooper, Ben Affleck, Jesse Plemons

Unlikely: J.K. Simmons, Woody Norman

The rundown: Last year, this category brought us the biggest shock with the inclusion of Stanfield, who no one considered supporting and wasn’t remotely expected. This year, that doesn’t seem as likely to happen, but it’s not clear who the frontrunners are with a few exceptions. Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) and Troy Kotsur have been consistent performers across the board. Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) missed with SAG but seems popular, and while I would have hoped that his more prominent costar Jamie Dornan (Belfast) would also get in, I’m not so sure. That leaves just one spot. Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) scored mentions from both the Golden Globes and SAG, but his film is otherwise not in the awards conversation. Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) and Jared Leto (House of Gucci) were cited by SAG, but may not get in due to the size of the role and some serious overacting, respectively. While J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), a past winner in this category, is a distinct possibility, I’m looking instead to two other late-breaking players in popular films who just scored BAFTA bids: Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog) and Mike Faist (West Side Story).

For your consideration: I would be elated if Woody Norman (C’mon C’mon) got recognized like he did from BAFTA, but most of the attention for him otherwise has been as a young actor and his film just hasn’t shown up in the way it should with awards bodies.

Forecasted winner: I don’t see anyone defeating Smit-McPhee.