Oscar Predictions: Best Production Design

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, Tenet

This year’s locks: Dune, West Side Story, Nightmare Alley

Very likely: None

Possible: Belfast, The French Dispatch, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Cruella, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Cyrano

Unlikely: Spencer, Being the Ricardos, House of Gucci

The rundown: I’m a bit overwhelmed by the slew of contenders here, which seems like far too many to consider. The Art Directors Guild has three separate categories – period, fantasy, and contemporary – with five nominees apiece. But even their ranks didn’t include a handful of the films I’m predicting, like Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and Cyrano. From the period section, all seem distinctly possible, with West Side Story and Nightmare Alley the best bets over The French Dispatch, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and Licorice Pizza, all of which could absolutely be nominated. From fantasy, expect Dune and maybe Cruella, but not Ghostbusters: Afterlife, The Green Knight, or Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings. I’m not imagining that anything will get through from the contemporary category, but I will advocate for one nominee below. This category feels overstuffed and I’m genuinely not sure what will make the cut.

For your consideration: I don’t expect it to place in any Oscars category, but how about some love for the incredible sets of In the Heights, one of the ADG contemporary picks?

Forecasted winner: As long as it gets nominated, I think Nightmare Alley can win here.