Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

This year’s locks: Belfast, Licorice Pizza

Very likely: Don’t Look Up

Possible: Being the Ricardos, Mass, King Richard, Parallel Mothers, The French Dispatch, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World

Unlikely: Pig, C’mon C’mon, Red Rocket

The rundown: The Writers Guild of America nominees aren’t entirely helpful since top contenders like Belfast weren’t eligible there. The five nominees do have a shot, with Licorice Pizza and Don’t Look Up likeliest. I think Being the Ricardos, which has been performing very well, will make the cut, while King Richard will just miss and The French Dispatch, however much it deserves to be here, is a true longshot. I’m betting on Mass to snag the last shot (check out my interview with Fran Kranz), and it’s important to mention other WGA-ineligible contenders like International Feature frontrunners A Hero and The Worst Person in the World, Parallel Mothers, and Pig.

For your consideration: I can’t understand why C’mon C’mon hasn’t done better this awards season and would love to see it recognized here.

Forecasted winner: This feels like an easy win for The Trial of the Chicago 7 unless “Promising Young Woman” surges or “Mank” sweeps.