Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Viola Davis, Andra Day, Vanessa Kirby, Frances McDormand, Carey Mulligan

This year’s locks: Olivia Colman

Very likely: Lady Gaga, Nicole Kidman

Possible: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim, Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Hudson, Rachel Zegler

Unlikely: Tessa Thompson, Penélope Cruz, Renate Reinsve, Emilia Jones

The rundown: It’s easy to think this category is in complete chaos after seeing the BAFTA lineup, but it’s important to remember that only Frances McDormand, who won both prizes, translated to this race last year. The SAG snub for presumed frontrunner Kristen Stewart (Spencer) is much more alarming, though I still think she can get in since her awards season performance leading up to that point was very strong. Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) seems like the surest thing, and it’s important to note that she also missed last year with BAFTA despite “The Father” otherwise doing well. The lone Globe-SAG-BAFTA nominee is Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), who’s probably safe even if her film isn’t, and I think Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) is fine too because her first has only gained momentum. I think that Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), who did manage a BAFTA bid, will grab the fifth slot, which sadly means that there’s no room for Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and would make the second time she got snubbed after hitting most of the precursors following “A Most Violent Year.” SAG added an actress who was favored to win this race earlier this year before missing with most groups, Jennifer Hudson (Respect), and it’s also possible that Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) rides a wave of nominations for her film. Tessa Thompson (Passing) and Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World) scored BAFTA nominations, but I don’t think their films will be received warmly enough, and the same goes for Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), who might have had a better shot if her film had been submitted by Spain for Best International Feature.

For your consideration: I was delighted to see Emilia Jones (CODA) earn a BAFTA nomination, but I think that she’s not as well-known as the other contenders in this category and that her being British is what helped her there. What a wonderful inclusion that would be though!

Forecasted winner: Who knows? If she gets nominated, I think Stewart could still win.