Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition:
Being the Ricardos was written by Aaron Sorkin. He has eight previous nominations in this category, with three wins, for “The Social Network” in 2010, “Steve Jobs” in 2015, and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” last year, which also earned him a nomination for directing. His film’s stars Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem are also nominated.

Belfast was written by Kenneth Branagh. He has four previous nominations for acting, most recently in 2011 for “My Week with Marilyn.” He is also nominated for directing his film, which is tied as the nominations leader.

Don’t Look Up was written by Adam McKay. This is his third nomination in this category, following “The Big Short” in 2015 and “Vice” in 2018, which also earned him a nomination for directing. The film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence.

Licorice Pizza was written by Paul Thomas Anderson. This is his first Globe nomination. The film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and stars Alana Haim and Cooper Hoffman.

The Power of the Dog was written by Jane Campion, who is also nominated this year for Best Director. She was previously nominated in both categories in 1993 for “The Piano.” Her film is tied as the nominations leader.

Additional notes: The winner of this category has gone on to win one of the two corresponding Oscar prizes eight times in the past fifteen years, and only once in that time has ended up being snubbed altogether. A Best Director nomination isn’t crucial here to a win, but it does help.
What should win? This is a good list, but “Belfast” and “Licorice Pizza” really stick out as the best. I’d probably choose the latter.
What will win? I’m honestly not sure. Maybe Belfast?