Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition:
Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) plays bar owner Charlie Moehringer. Affleck has three previous Globe nominations, all for different trades. His lone acting nomination was in 2006 for “Hollywoodland.” He won for directing “Argo” in 2012 and for writing “Good Will Hunting” in 1997. He is the lone representative of his film.

Jamie Dornan (Belfast) plays absent father Pa. This is his first Globe nomination. His film is tied as the nominations leader.

Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) plays loving grandfather Pop. This is his first Globe nomination. His film is tied as the nominations leader.

Troy Kotsur (CODA) plays fisherman Frank Rossi. This is his first Globe nomination. His film is also up for Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) plays impressionable student Peter Gordon. This is his first Globe nomination. His film is tied as the nominations leader.

Additional notes: Everyone except Affleck was cited by the Critics Choice Association in their nominations list. Only once in the past forty years has the winner of this category gone on not to be nominated for an Oscar (Aaron Taylor-Johnson in 2016), and the victor here also claimed the Oscar all but three times in the past fifteen years.
Who should win? I like this list. Dornan and Affleck both impressed me but I’d vote for Kotsur ahead of everyone.
Who will win? Critics’ groups indicate that Smit-McPhee is ahead, but I’m going to bet on Kotsur.