Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

The competition: Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenneth Lucas, and Keith Lucas), Minari (Lee Isaac Chung), Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell), Sound of Metal (Darius Marder, Abraham Marder, and Derek Cianfrance), and The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)

Previous winners: Parasite, Green Book, Get Out, Manchester by the Sea, Spotlight, Birdman, Her
My winner: Coming soon!
The facts: Amazingly, this is Sorkin’s first nomination in this category, though he’s contended three times for his adapted screenplays, in 2017 for “Molly’s Game,” in 2011 for “Moneyball,” and in 2010 for “The Social Network,” which earned him a win. This is the first nomination for all other writers in this category, though some picked up additional bids this year. King contends as a producer, Chung as a director, and Fennell as both. “Minari” was ineligible at the WGA Awards, where the other four films were nominated and “Promising Young Woman” won. The latter film lost to “The Trial of the Chicago 7” in the Golden Globes catch-all screenplay category.

Who should win: I would be happy with either “Promising Young Woman” or “The Trial of the Chicago 7” – they’re both terrific and very clever scripts.
Who will win: While it’s possible that “The Trial of the Chicago 7” will score its representative win here, I think that Promising Young Woman has enough momentum to pull off that feat.