Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite

My choices: Here they are!

This year’s locks: Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Very likely: Mank, Promising Young Woman, Minari, One Night in Miami, The Father

Possible: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Sound of Metal, Judas and the Black Messiah, News of the World, Soul, Da 5 Bloods, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Unlikely: The Mauritanian, First Cow, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Another Round

The rundown: Last year, I decided to predict “Portrait of a Lady on Fire” to earn a spot in this race, which of course didn’t come anywhere close to panning out. As a result, I’m playing it a bit safer this time. Nomadland is a sure thing, and I think that The Trial of the Chicago 7 is too. Mank missed out on the top category with a few precursor and critics’ groups, but should be okay to get in here, along with Promising Young Woman, which is looking pretty good, scoring a BAFTA Best Picture mention even if it got snubbed in most other prominent categories. Minari, One Night in Miami, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom haven’t been showing up consistently in the top categories but did well at SAG and PGA, so I think they’re in. The Father scored with BAFTA as one of its top five films, and though it hasn’t been a juggernaut this awards season, I think it’s set to be included. Both Sound of Metal and Judas and the Black Messiah have had a great late-run streak, including mentions from PGA, and I think they’ll round out a full ten nominees, which of course hasn’t happened since the variable limit between five and ten has only resulted in a maximum of nine honorees. Beyond that, watch out for News of the World, Soul, and Da 5 Bloods, all possible, as is the less serious PGA pick Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. BAFTA chose The Mauritanian, which could theoretically earn enough support, and there’s sure to be energy directed towards First Cow and Never Rarely Sometimes Always, but probably not enough to boost it to a spot in this race. Another Round is the only foreign film with a longshot chance at showing up here, but it’s not likely to happen.

For your consideration : It earned mentions from the Golden Globes, WGA, Art Directors Guild, American Cinema Editors, Critics Choice Association, and more: how great would it be if Palm Springs got recognized here?

Predicted nominees (10): The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Forecasted winner: I think Nomadland will be the winner.