Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Knives Out, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite

This year’s locks: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman, Mank

Possible: Minari, Sound of Metal, Soul, Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods

Unlikely: Palm Springs, Another Round, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

The rundown: The Writers Guild of America nominees are informative for this race, but three expected contenders, Mank, Minari, and Soul weren’t eligible there for different reasons. Golden Globe winner The Trial of the Chicago 7 should be safe unless it goes the way of Aaron Sorkin’s last Globe trophy, for “Steve Jobs,” and results in an Oscar snub, but that would be a shock. Promising Young Woman also feels likeliest here even if it somehow underperforms in other races. I’m backing Sound of Metal over fellow WGA inclusions Judas and the Black Messiah and Palm Springs since I believe it might have a good showing across the board, though the second of those is definitely on the rise too. I’d love to say that the latter will show up here, but I’ve seen comedies like “Booksmart” and “Eighth Grade” fail to make the transition in the past. Da 5 Bloods is an Oscar question mark since some awards bodies love it and some have ignored it, while Another Round is a foreign film that could do well and get a boost from its Best International Feature nomination. I don’t see Never Rarely Sometimes Always having enough steam to place in this race at this point, but it could happen.

For your consideration: Radha Blank impressed with The 40-Year-Old Version, an awesome film that sadly seems to be too under the radar.

Forecasted winner: This feels like an easy win for The Trial of the Chicago 7 unless “Promising Young Woman” surges or “Mank” sweeps.