Oscar Predictions: Best Original Song

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: I’m Standing with You (Breakthrough), Into the Unknown (Frozen II), Stand Up (Harriet), I’m Gonna Love Me Again (Rocketman), I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away (Toy Story 4)

This year’s locks: Speak Now (One Night in Miami), Io Si (The Life Ahead)

Very likely: Fight for You (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Possible: Husavik (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga), Wuhan Flu (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Turntables (All In: The Fight for Democracy), Green (Sound of Metal), Loyal Brave True (Mulan)

Unlikely: Show Me Your Soul (Mr. Soul), Free (The One and Only Ivan), Rain Song (Minari), See What You’ve Done (Belly of the Beast), Never Break (Giving Voice), Make It Work (Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey)

The rundown: For the third year, the contenders in this category have been winnowed down to just fifteen finalists. I’ve been listening to all of them every time on a loop! I’ve learned that a Globe nomination and eligibility here doesn’t necessarily translate to a nomination, though I’m still predicting three of the four relevant songs to succeed: winner Io Si (The Life Ahead), Speak Now (One Night in Miami), and Fight for You (Judas and the Black Messiah). The one I’m swapping out is Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago 7) in favor of not one but two comedic choices: Wuhan Flu (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) and Husavik (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga). The rest of the crop includes some big names in moderately known projects, only a few of which are likely to show up in other categories: Turntables (All In: The Fight for Democracy), Green (Sound of Metal), Loyal Brave True (Mulan), Free (The Only and Only Ivan), Rain Song (Minari), and Make It Work (Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey). It would be startling to see Show Me Your Soul (Mr. Soul), See What You’ve Done (Belly of the Beast), or Never Break (Giving Voice) make the cut since I doubt voters have heard of their films.

Forecasted winner: I think Io Si can pull it off.