Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees: Joker, Little Marriage, Marriage Story, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

My choices: Coming next week!

This year’s locks: Soul, Tenet

Very likely: Mank

Possible: News of the World, The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari, Da 5 Bloods

Unlikely: Ammonite, Mulan, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead,

The rundown: For the third year in a row, the contenders in this category have been winnowed down to just fifteen finalists. I’ve been listening to these scores nonstop for the past few weeks. For the third year in a row, all five Globe nominees are eligible, though the list hasn’t matched up since 1962 (when there were two separate Oscar categories), and the winner from two years ago, “First Man,” wasn’t even nominated. I think Soul is a sure thing, and I’d also bet on Tenet. In fact, I’m predicting the rest of the Globe lineup too: Mank, News of the World, and The Midnight Sky. Minari was cited by both BAFTA and the Critics Choice Awards, so it could bump one of those, as could The Trial of the Chicago 7. Da 5 Bloods seems distinctly possible, but it’s hard to know how that film will perform across the board. Ammonite would be wonderful choice but I don’t think there’s enough buzz. It’s possible that Mulan, The Invisible Man, The Little Things, or Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey could surprise, but I doubt it, and I think that subtitles may be too much of a barrier for The Life Ahead or Blizzard of Souls to break through.

Forecasted winner: I think Soul continues its winning streak.