Oscar Nominees: Best Picture

My predictions: 8/8, but I predicted two others and had “Sound of Metal” at #9
My ballot: Here it is!
The nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Well, this isn’t all that surprising, and, though I’m sad about a few of the omissions, this is a pretty spectacular list of films to represent the best of the year. I was disappointed that “One Night in Miami” and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” weren’t here when I felt they very much could and should have been, but they managed to earn three and five nominations, respectively. Whereas last year, four films had ten or more bids, this year it’s just one, Mank, which scored ten despite missing out for its screenplay, film editing, and visual effects. Interestingly, the spread is pretty even, with six of the others all achieving six nominations. It doesn’t feel right that the best film of the year, Promising Young Woman, is the least-represented in this category, with only five mentions, especially since it should have been honored for some of its technical feats. Judas and the Black Messiah experienced the biggest late surge, while The Father, technically a late release but one that premiered over a year ago at the 2020 Sundance Film Festival, recovered despite an uneven precursors performance. Sound of Metal was another late-breaker that went from just one Golden Globe mention to a solid showing here, and the same is true for Minari. The frontrunner, Nomadland, has officially solidified its position, now that what might have been its closest competition, The Trial of the Chicago 7, didn’t get nominated for Best Director. More on all this as the Oscar ceremony approaches, but given what was realistically possible, I’m perfectly okay with this list.

My current bet to win: It’s got to be Nomadland.