Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Original Song

The competition:

Fight for You (Judas and the Black Messiah) was written by D’Mile, H.E.R., and Tiara Thomas. This is the first nomination for all three. This film is also nominated for supporting actor Daniel Kaluuya.

Io Si (Seen) (The Life Ahead) was written by Diane Warren, Niccolò Agliardi, and Laura Pausini. Warren has five previous nominations, winning on her most recent time a song from “Burlesque” a decade ago. This is the first nomination for Agliardi and Pausini. This film is also nominated for Best Foreign Film.

Speak Now (One Night in Miami) was written by Leslie Odom Jr. and Sam Ashworth. This is the first nomination for both, and Odom is also nominated for his performance in the film, which additionally contends for Best Director.

Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago 7) was written by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste. This is the fourth nomination for Pemberton, who contended previously for the scores for “Motherless Brooklyn” in 2020 and “Steve Jobs” in 2015, and for a song from “Gold” in 2016. This is the first nomination for Celeste. This film is up for Best Motion Picture – Drama and three other awards.

Tigress and Tweed (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) was written by Andra Day and Raphael Saadiq. This is the first nomination for Day, who is also nominated for her performance in the film. Saadiq was previously nominated for a song from “Mudbound” in 2017.

Additional notes: Only “Tigress and Tweed” missed the fifteen-wide finalist list for the corresponding Oscar category. The winner of this award has gone on to win the Oscar seven times out of the past fifteen years, though six of the remaining times the winner wasn’t even nominated there. Cynthia Erivo, Mary J. Blige, and Bjork were nominated in 2019, 2017 and 2000, respectively, for acting and songwriting, and in all three cases, they lost, but Lady Gaga, who was nominated in 2018, did succeed in winning this award.
What should win? After listening to these five songs a number of times, my clear favorites are “Io Si” and “Speak Now.”
What will win? I’m going to pick Speak Now over “Io Si” but I’m not entirely confident about that choice..