Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition:

The Father was written by Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton. This is the first nomination for director Zeller, while Hampton previously contended in this race in 2007 for “Atonement.” The film also contends for Best Motion Picture – Drama and stars Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman.

Mank was written by Jack Fincher, earning his first Globe nomination almost eighteen years after his death for writing a film directed by his son David. The film is the nominations leader, contending for Best Motion Picture – Drama, its director, its score, and stars Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried.

Nomadland was written by Chloé Zhao, who is also nominated this year for Best Director. This marks her first nomination. The film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and star Frances McDormand.

Promising Young Woman was written by Emerald Fennell, who is also nominated this year for Best Director. This marks her first nomination. The film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama and star Carey Mulligan.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 was written by Aaron Sorkin, who is also nominated this year for Best Director. He has an impressive seven previous nominations in this category, most recently in 2017 for “Molly’s Game.” He won in 2015 for “Steve Jobs” and in 2010 for “The Social Network.” The film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama, a song, and star Sacha Baron Cohen.

Additional notes: The winner of this category has gone on to win one of the two corresponding Oscar prizes nine times in the past fifteen years, and only once in that time has ended up being snubbed altogether. A Best Director nomination isn’t crucial here to a win, but it does help. This is the first time in thirty years that all five of these nominees have also been up for Best Motion Picture – Drama.
What should win? Though “The Father” is well-written, it’s not one of my top choices. The same goes for “Nomadland.” I very much appreciated both “Mank” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” but the most formidable script of this bunch is certainly “Promising Young Woman.”
What will win? This category feels uncertain, but I think Sorkin prevails for The Trial of the Chicago 7.