Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Foreign Language Film

The competition:

 
Another Round (Denmark) is directed by Thomas Vinterberg, marking his thirteenth feature film and third Golden Globe nomination after previous bids in this category in 1998 for “The Celebration” and in 2013 for “The Hunt.” As far as I can tell, Denmark has been nominated ten times in the past, winning in 1988 for “Pelle the Conqueror” and in 2010 for “In a Better World.” This film is on the Oscar shortlist as Denmark’s submission for Best International Feature.

La Llorona (Guatemala) is directed by Jayro Bustamante, marking his third film. This is the first Globe citation for Guatemala. This film is on the Oscar shortlist as Guatemala’s submission for Best International Feature.

The Life Ahead (Italy) is directed by Edoardo Ponti, marking his third film. As far as I can tell, Italy has thirty-five previous nominations and nine wins, most recently in 2013 for “The Great Beauty.” While this film is not was not selected as Italy’s submission for Best International Feature, it is on the corresponding shortlist for Best Original Song, which also serves as a second Globe nomination.

Minari (USA) is directed by Lee Isaac Chung, marking his fourth film. This is the sixth time that a film cited as being only from the USA has been nominated. None of them have won, though “Letters from Iwo Jima” and “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” billed as being from the USA and another country, did prevail in 2006 and 2007. This is the film’s only Globe nomination, though it is up for three SAG Awards.

Two of Us (France) is directed by Filippo Meneghetti, marking his feature debut. As best as I can tell, France has been nominated a whopping eighty-one times and has been credited with twelve wins. This film is on the Oscar shortlist as France’s submission for Best International Feature.

Additional notes: All three Oscar-eligible films are on the shortlist for the Oscar Best International Feature category. Last year, all three of the nominees here who were submitted at the Oscars ended up getting nominated there. The past two winners of this category, “Parasite” and “Roma,” won the corresponding Oscar, while the two before that, “In the Fade” and “Elle,” weren’t even nominated. Only seven winners in this category have gone on to win the corresponding Oscar in the past fifteen years.
What should win? These are all good choices. I would choose “Minari” over the rest.
What will win? This is the first time in a few years that there’s no set frontrunner, and even though Minari didn’t earn other bids here, I think it’s safe to say that it has the edge.