Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Drama

The competition:

The Father is directed by Florian Zeller, marking his directorial debut. It also contends for its screenplay and for performances from stars Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman.

Mank is directed by David Fincher, marking his eleventh film. It is the nominations leader, with bids for directing, its screenplay, its score, and for performances from stars Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried.

Nomadland is directed by Chloé Zhao, marking her third film. It also contends for its directing, screenplay, and star Frances McDormand’s performance.

Promising Young Woman is directed by Emerald Fennell, marking her directorial debut. It also contends for its directing, screenplay, and star Carey Mulligan’s performance.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 is directed by Aaron Sorkin, marking his second film. It also contends for its directing, screenplay, song, and for star Sacha Baron Cohen’s performance.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture only four times in the past fifteen years, and only three times in the entire history of the Globes, most recently in 1963, has the winner been snubbed altogether at the Oscars. “The Trial of the Chicago 7” is the only film here nominated for its ensemble at the SAG Awards. Only “The Father” is not nominated for directing, while, for the first time in thirty years, all five of the films in this category also have their screenplays cited.
What should win? I liked all of these films. My top three movies of the year are “Promising Young Woman,” “Mank,” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” so I’d be thrilled to see any of them rewarded.
What will win? I think it could legitimately be any of these except for “The Father.” I’ll very cautiously pick The Trial of the Chicago 7 over “Nomadland” with “Promising Young Woman” as a serious risk to upset.