Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition:

David Fincher (Mank) directs his eleventh film, which earned him his fourth nomination. He won this prize in 2010 for “The Social Network” and was also nominated in 2008 for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and in 2014 for “Gone Girl.” His film is the nominations leader, contending for Best Motion Picture – Drama, its screenplay, its score, and stars Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried.

Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) directs her third film, which earned her two nominations, as she also contends for its screenplay. Her film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama, its screenplay, and for star Frances McDormand’s performance.

Regina King (One Night in Miami) directs her first film. She has three previous nominations, for “American Crime” in 2016, “Seven Seconds” in 2018, and “If Beale Street Could Talk,” which won her the supporting actress trophy in 2018. Her film also contends for its performance from star Leslie Odom Jr. and its end credits song.

Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) directs her first film, which earned her two nominations, as she also contends for its screenplay. Her film is also nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama, its screenplay, and for star Carey Mulligan’s performance.

Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) directs his second film, which earned him two nominations, as he also contends for its screenplay . He has an impressive seven previous nominations, all in the screenplay category, most recently in 2017 for “Molly’s Game.” He won in 2015 for “Steve Jobs” and in 2010 for “The Social Network.” The film is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama, a song, and star Sacha Baron Cohen’s performance.

Additional notes: The winner of this award has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar eight times out of the past fifteen years, with only Ben Affleck missing out on a nomination altogether. In all but two cases, the winner of this race has also won the corresponding top prize (drama, comedy, or foreign). This is the first time that more than one female director has been nominated in the same year. The last and only woman to win this prize was Barbra Streisand for “Yentl” in 1983. Only “One Night in Miami” is not nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Who should win? This is an extremely strong list. I can appreciate the formidable work that Zhao and King are doing even though they’re not at the top of my picks for the year. I’d be happy with any of them winning, though I’d probably choose Fincher or Fennell.
Who will win? Based on her absolute domination of critics’ prizes, I think this goes to Zhao and would be legitimately surprised by anyone else.