Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Picture

The competition: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite

Previous winners: Green Book, The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Spotlight, Birdman, 12 Years a Slave, Argo
My winner: Parasite
The facts: Last year, I was able to break down the reasons that every contender couldn’t win this prize, but that isn’t quite true this year. For the first time in history, four films have double-digit nominations, though, interestingly, only one of them is among the three films expected to win. “Joker” leads with eleven nominations. “1917,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” and “The Irishman” are next with ten. “Jojo Rabbit,” “Little Women,” “Marriage Story,” and “Parasite” all got six, and “Ford v Ferrari” earned four. “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical and the Critics’ Choice Award. “1917” won the Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama, the PGA, the DGA, and the BAFTA. “Parasite” won the SAG, where “1917” wasn’t nominated. It’s still true that no foreign film has ever won this award, while last year marked only the fifth time in history that a film without a Best Director nomination prevailed. That statistic is useful for “Jojo Rabbit,” which some believe may upset if “1917” and “Parasite” split the votes. Eleven films have won Best Picture without any acting nominations, most recently “Slumdog Millionaire” in 2008, which applies to “Ford v Ferrari,” “1917,” and “Parasite” this year.

Who should win: “Parasite” is the best movie of the year, so I’m on board with that. I thought every other film except for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” was good too, so there’s not a bad choice in my mind except for that. The excitement of a South Korean film winning this award would be thrilling.
Who will win: I’d love to say that “Parasite” can win, and it’s definitely possible, but I don’t see enough of a reason that 1917 doesn’t prevail. And that film is quite the cinematic experience, so I’m okay with it winning even if I’m rooting for my actual favorite.