Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Film Editing

The competition: Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker), The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker), Jojo Rabbit (Tom Eagles), Joker (Jeff Groth), Parasite (Yang Jin-mo)

Previous winners: Bohemian Rhapsody, Dunkirk, Hacksaw Ridge, Mad Max: Fury Road, Whiplash, Gravity, Argo
My winner: Parasite
The facts: Schoonmaker is tied both for the most awards and most nominations in this category, with wins for “Raging Bull” in 1980, “The Aviator” in 2004, and “The Departed” in 2006 and four other previous bids. She was last nominated for “Hugo” in 2011, her sixth nominated collaboration with director Martin Scorsese. McCusker was nominated in 2005 for “Walk the Line.” All five of these films were nominated for the ACE Eddie Award, with “Jojo Rabbit” taking the comedy prize and “Parasite” beating the other three for the dramatic award. Four of the last ten Oscars winners didn’t win either ACE Eddie. The winner of this award hasn’t gone on to win Best Picture since “Argo” in 2012, and it’s actually much more common for the two not to match up, though all but two of the last ten winners were nominated for the top prize. All five of these films are nominated for Best Picture. The last time a foreign language film contended for this award was in 2007, and the only time such a project ever won was way back in 1969 when “Z” triumphed.

Who should win: “Parasite”
Who will win: As tends to be the case, one of the biggest films of the year, namely “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” isn’t present. The same goes for “1917,” though that film tries to look like it doesn’t use much editing. That, I think, leaves Parasite out front, though it’s possible that “Ford v Ferrari” could manage a technical win here. I don’t see the other three winning.