Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The competition: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)

Previous winners: Olivia Colman, Frances McDormand, Emma Stone, Brie Larson, Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Lawrence, Meryl Streep
My winner: Holliday Grainger (Animals)
The facts: Zellweger won in 2003 for “Cold Mountain” on her third consecutive nomination after “Bridget Jones’ Diary” and “Chicago.” Theron also won that year, for “Monster,” and was nominated again in 2005 for “North Country.” Ronan has been cited before in 2007 for “Atonement,” in 2015 for “Brooklyn,” and in 2017 for “Lady Bird.” This is the first nomination for Erivo and Johansson, both of whom have another bid this year: Erivo for her song “Stand Up” and Johansson for her supporting turn in “Jojo Rabbit.” Golden Globe comedy winner Awkwafina is not nominated. Only Johansson and Ronan’s films are nominated for Best Picture. Zellweger, whose film has one other bid, for makeup and hairstyling, has won every precursor.

Who should win: Zellweger or Johansson
Who will win: No one else has momentum to defeat Zellweger.