Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Previous winners: Rami Malek, Gary Oldman, Casey Affleck, Leonardo DiCaprio, Eddie Redmayne, Matthew McConaughey, Daniel Day-Lewis
My winner: Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell)
The facts: The only previous winner in this race is DiCaprio, who won on his last try in 2015 for “The Revenant” after four previous nominations, for “The Wolf of Wall Street,” “Blood Diamond,” “The Aviator,” and “What’s Eating Gilbert Grape?” Phoenix has been nominated three times before, for “The Master,” “Walk the Line,” and “Gladiator.” Driver contended last year for “BlacKkKlansman.” This is the first nomination for both Banderas and Pryce, whose films are not nominated for Best Picture but each have additional nominations. Phoenix, whose film is the nominations leader, has won every award on the path to this one, and the comedy Golden Globe winner, Taron Egerton, isn’t nominated.
Who should win: I’d pick Pryce or Phoenix.
Who will win: This is going to Phoenix.