Oscar Predictions: Best Visual Effects

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Avengers: Infinity War, Christopher Robin, First Man, Ready Player One, Solo: A Star Wars Story

My choices: Coming next week!

This year’s locks: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Lion King, Avengers: Endgame

Possible: The Irishman, 1917, Alita: Battle Angel, Captain Marvel

Unlikely: Cats, Gemini Man, Terminator: Dark Fate

The rundown: We have ten finalists that will be winnowed down to five nominees, and it’s just a question of who gets snubbed. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker shouldn’t have a problem getting in given that the franchise has been nominated the past four years straight. The same goes for The Lion King, which stands to get in after “The Jungle Book” won this prize three years ago. Avengers: Endgame is a continuation of last year’s nominee “Avengers: Infinity War” and should land a nomination and maybe even a first-ever Marvel win. I don’t think the same will be true for Captain Marvel since “Black Panther” missed last year and a good number of non-Avengers Marvel projects haven’t gotten in over the course of the past decade. Though it won’t contend in any other category, Alita: Battle Angel stands a good shot of making it in here, especially after a very strong showing at the Visual Effects Society Awards. I’m betting that presumptive Best Picture contender 1917 scores, while The Irishman gets snubbed because some aren’t fond of its de-aging technology. Cats has likely shot its chances because its effects were updated post-release, and I’m not too sure about Gemini Man, though it’s admittedly one of the few in this race I haven’t seen. I don’t think Terminator: Dark Fate can place since the franchise has earned a bid (and win) exactly once for “Terminator 2: Judgment Day” way back in 1991. This doesn’t feel like the film to break that trend.

I had the chance to talk to the visual effects teams from all of Disney's finalists - read my piece over at The Film Experience.

Forecasted winner: I’m going to pick Avengers: Endgame though I’m sure something else will beat it.