Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Amy Adams, Regina King, Emma Stone, Marina de Tavira, Rachel Weisz

This year’s locks: Jennifer Lopez, Laura Dern, Margot Robbie

Possible: Scarlett Johansson, Zhao Shuzhen, Florence Pugh, Nicole Kidman, Kathy Bates, Annette Bening, Maggie Smith

Unlikely: Anna Paquin

The rundown: This category seems to have three names in common, with the other two spots wholly up for grabs. I’m not sure why anyone wouldn’t consider Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) and Margot Robbie (Bombshell) locks, and no one is debating Golden Globe winner Laura Dern (Marriage Story) as a surefire nominee. From there, things diverge considerably. Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), who is expected to also contend in the lead race for “Marriage Story,” scored mentions from SAG and Critics Choice. Annette Bening (The Report) merited a Globe nomination for a film no one is otherwise talking about, and Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) was the lone Globe honoree from a movie that, since then, has attracted some controversy which I expect will negate her chances. SAG entered Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) into the conversation, but I don’t think she’ll compete with her costars. The Critics Choice list also included Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell), who I think will break through with sentimentality, and Florence Pugh (Little Women), who has been called the MVP of a film that hasn’t resounded with a handful of awards bodies. I still think Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey) has a shot, especially because of just how much audience members were cracking up at an awards screening I attended in Los Angeles. I can’t imagine that Anna Paquin (The Irishman) will actually earn a bit for what’s essentially a silent cameo, but if voters really go nuts for the film, she may just be in.

One possible crazy scenario: Her name is announced, but Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) gets nominated for a different performance in an even more popular film.

Forecasted winner: This category is often fond of first-time nominees, which makes me think that Lopez will take it over Dern.