Oscar Predictions: Best Sound

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Roma, A Star is Born

My choices: Coming next week!

This year’s locks: None

Very likely: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman, Ford v Ferrari

Possible: 1917, Rocketman, Parasite, Joker

Unlikely: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Lion King, Avengers: Endgame, Toy Story 4

The rundown: This category is always challenging to predict. The Cinema Audio Society nominees may shed some light on the contenders here, with presumptive Best Picture nominees The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Joker all likely, along with Ford v Ferrari and Rocketman, both of which seem like solid bets too. Animated films rarely make a showing here – “Wall-E” was the last one back in 2008 – but it’s possible that either Toy Story 4 or The Lion King, both cited in the CAS’ animated field, could be nominated this time. Last year’s CAS list matched up 4/5, missing just “Roma,” and so maybe Parasite will bump one of those this time around. The other film that didn’t merit a CAS bid but feels like a serious contender here is 1917. A swell of support for either Avengers: Endgame or Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker could place the saga-cappers here, with the latter likelier given that three of the most recent installments were cited, but I doubt either will manage a place.

One possible crazy scenario: A film whose sound is deeply disturbing, Us, delights horror fans with an unexpected bid here.

Forecasted winner: Provided it gets nominated, I think 1917 wins.