Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: The Favourite, First Reformed, Green Brook, Roma, Vice

This year’s locks: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Marriage Story, Parasite

Possible: Knives Out, The Farewell, Uncut Gems, Booksmart, Pain and Glory, 1917, Ford v Ferrari

Unlikely: Waves

The rundown: The Writers Guild of America nominees are informative for this race, but it’s worth noting right off the bat that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is still the frontrunner since it only wasn’t nominated for a WGA because Golden Globe winner Quentin Tarantino, who has no one to thank but himself, isn’t a member of the guild. He’s won two prizes in this category in the past and will surely be back this time around. From the WGA list, Marriage Story and Parasite are sure things, while Knives Out is looking pretty likely at this point. 1917 scored Globe wins for best picture and director, but its screenplay, despite being cited by the WGA, seems likely to be left off. I’d love to see the wonderful WGA inclusion of Booksmart extend to this list, but I worry that it will follow in the footsteps of “Mean Girls” and “Eighth Grade” and not be nominated. In its place, the WGA-ineligible The Farewell has a good shot, as does the similarly ineligible Pain and Glory, with Uncut Gems, praised by critics and certain awards bodies, also possible. Ford v Ferrari may score here, but its questionable placement may keep it from the final list. Waves was tossed around as a contender for a while, but I think it’s lost too much momentum.

One possible crazy scenario: I’d be ecstatic if The Last Black Man in San Francisco managed to overcome the odds and land a nomination here.

Forecasted winner: I’d love to see “Parasite” take down Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but I doubt it will happen.